The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up extended immediately through 2032.00-2033.00 resistance and fulfilled potential to 2041.50. An 11-point dip reacted up 16 points to attack 2046.00. But the probe of fresh session highs failed, as did its retest, before the close dipped back down toward session lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Gradually ratcheting up to attack yesterday’s highs, a single probe higher has touched 2050.50. Its initial reaction down to test 2046.00 is now extending deeper to attack 2044.00.

If, then…
Yesterday’s rally gained no traction for its effort. Extending higher today would require gapping up above yesterday’s highs. Extending higher without gapping up is still possible, but then very likely to trend back down — especially if 2052.00 had been tested already. Trending at all this morning isn’t likely with this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement looming.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2044.00 would be likely to trigger the 2041.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2051.25 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding its 2048.00 bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2034.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday choppy open attacked Sunday night’s 2019.50 high to within only 6-9 points. It ultimately slid through the noon hour to test its lowest objective at 1983.50. Rallying through the noon hour back to attack 2010.00 consolidated around unchanged. Not until the 3.37-3:52 position-squaring window began lapsing did price firm back to the morning’s highs. That was too late to gain traction for the effort, but no “unfinished business below” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially extending higher Monday night attacked Sunday night’s 2019.50 high to within 3 ticks. Consolidating back down to 2010.00 finally resumed rallying at Europe’s opens. Attacking 2027.00 has since been consolidating.

If, then…
A trending effort that doesn’t gain traction requires gapping up above relevant resistance to extend the trending without delay. Tuesday’s relevant resistance is 2022.50, which is being probed. Maintaining its recovery would next target 2032.00-2033.00 and a test of 2040.00. Rejecting 2022.50 through the open could find support at yesterday afternoon’s 2001.25-2005.00 “lower prior highs” before threatening to resume the decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2026.25 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding its 2022.50 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2015.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2017.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped down to 2017.50, but ranged choppily and widely between 2011.00-2015.00 through the morning. Ultimately breaking lower into the noon hour to 2004.00 did react up to 2015.00 until the bias environment lapsing came within view. But that only reacted down yet again to 1998.50. Even that was extended down further to 1996.25 post-close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open stopped 3 ticks short of touching Friday’s 1996.25 post-close low. That was reversed immediately, and relentlessly, testing 2017,50 and 2019.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. A quick 10-point drop was recovered back above Friday afternoon’s 2015.00 high, but only momentarily. Soon it, too, was resolving down as Crude Oil broke under Friday’s lows. Now fresh lows have been probed down to 1991.25.

If, then…
Was the initial overnight action a roadmap for the open, or a last gasp before a very weak session? The two paths higher had developed somewhat overnight. The first path would momentarily probe slightly lower lows before reacting up sharply from realizing no new selling sponsorship was being attracted. The second path up would gap up above Friday afternoon’s 2015.00 high. The overnight rally apparently had expended too much energy too soon to maintain that bullish positioning. By the same token, the overnight rally created a lot of room to absorb another round of selling. And the open’s dip was rather shallow, to begin with. The paths higher can still be followed, by repeating the overnight action. But not already rallying out of the open would isolate the recovery and leave the intraday vulnerable to extending down sharply.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1988.00 would be likely also to not recover the 1990.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1998.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1995.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Here are the correct links to today’s chaRTroom:

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s opening bounce was retraced entirely, as deeply and as late as possible without reversing the trend down under 2036.00. It was rewarded with a rally to test 2054.00. That bounce was retraced almost entirely, also as deeply and as late as possible without reversing the trend down under 2040.00. Its reward was a rally to test 2058.00. Coincidental to campus shooting headline, a pullback limit’s violation resulted in sliding back down to the noon hour’s 2040.00 low through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Instead of extending, the late plunge was retraced 38.2% to attack 2048.00. Ranging gingerly flat-to-lower tried bouncing at Europe’s opens, but there were no more rewards — only consequences. The first reaction down probed fresh lows attacking 2036.00. Its bounce resolved down sharply lower to 2024.00.

If, then…
Trending down post-open on Fridays can get out of hand with two days of illiquidity fast-approaching. Gapping down significantly can over-compensate, and reverse back up immediately. But that window of opportunity is brief. Retesting Tuesday’s ~2027.00 low was likely eventually. Its retest is likely to include 2022.00, which is now being attacked. Recovering both of their tests through the open would be the most reliable recovery setup — yet still vulnerable to resuming the decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2027.25 would be likely also not to recover the 2033.00 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2036.50 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal.