The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s Employment Situation Report had reacted down to fresh lows, under a multi-session range whose lower-end had been under attack already. A steep bounce into the open didn”t prevent the intraday crowd from immediately reversing back down to fresh lows at 2083.50. And that didn”t prevent an even steeper bounce to 2099.75. But neither leg extended, as the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways into a slightly lower close around 2091.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Relatively narrow sideways ranging has been centered around 2091.00. A brief dip down to 2086.50 around midnight was recovered back to the range”s 2093.00 upper-end. It was exciting.

If, then…
Oversold RSIs at Friday”s 2083.50 low require an eventual retest. Meanwhile, Friday morning”s 2104.25 is unfinished business above. Neither attraction need be tested in either order, and neither test need reverse immediately to fulfill the other. The value now to each comes more so from whether the timing window is exited beyond either, which would suggest the next lower objective in-play. If lower, that would be 2081.25 and possibly 2078.75.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2083.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2086.50 bias-down signal at 10L:15. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. And opening above 2098.50 would be likely to trigger the 2096.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Dropping Wednesday night to test 2100.00 was recovered to attack 2108.00 before Thursday”s open. Dropping aggressively held the overnight low and recovered to attack 2112.00. That bounce also failed, but this time dropping through the noon hour to 2091.25. Anxiousness ahead of the noon hour ended the drop, but a bounce to 2097.00 held the 2091.25 low before the close. The cash session close barely recovered to hold last Tuesday”s 2096.00 low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Last-minute action had surged into the futures close to 2099.25. Narrow ranging held 2097.00 at Europe”s opens, which triggered a surge to attack 2103.00. Consolidating back down to 2097.00 has broken sharply, now bouncing from a touch of yesterday”s 2091.25 low.

If, then…
Trending yesterday was unlikely ahead of the Employment Situation report. Now trending isn”t so inhibited. And this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, before the bias is triggered, may be the last opportunity to avoid falling over a little ledge, let alone a last opportunity for new highs anytime soon. And before either opportunity, there is this morning”s Employment Situation report. Recovering through the open from a negative reaction could trend up sharply into the weekend. Otherwise, the next lower objective at 2078.75-2081.25 will be in-play.

First Trade…
No preliminary levels are suggested before Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
All of Wednesday was spent in positive territory. But the pre-open and post-open probes above 2116.00-2118.00 resistance each were retraced. Firming into the close extended post-close to retest 2116.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Another overnight drop, who knew… Wednesday”s post-close bounce to 2116.50 began falling gradually, and then more steeply, to eventually test 2110.00. A 4-point bounce met Europe”s opens at 2113.50. The meeting went poorly, triggering a plunge to 2099.75. That 3-hour old low has since ranged sideways back up to 2106.00.

If, then…
The overnight drop proves that Wednesday”s rally attempts weren”t compensating for the delay caused by Tuesday not maintaining its recovery. But the overnight drop hasn”t reversed the trend down. At least, not yet — 2099.75 may be the lowest a dip could qualify as still being recoverable. Any lower would return so close to recent lows as to require probing under them. And that would risk triggering the Ascending Triangle pattern that began forming at Memorial Day, targeting 2078.75-2081.25. The trigger for launching a downleg is nearer than signaling new highs in-play. Counter-intuitively, that can be bullish for today if the market isn”t yet ready to trend. But the overnight drop hasn”t altered the likelihood for rally legs to be steep.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2102.25 bias-down target by 10:15, and more likely to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2110.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2108.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s recovery from fresh lows attacking 2096.00 was reversed well into positive territory. But dropping 10 points from 2116.00 had retraced the noon hour”s 6-point surge back through its inflection, and back into negative territory. The trend, itself, had not reversed down, but the attempt to squeeze the morning”s shorts seemed a failure. Was it undone by only having attacked last week”s 2096.00 low, rallying impatiently before a more thorough testing could have formed a more durable bottom?

Overnight action”s new info…
Yesterday;s 10-point drop into the close, and into negative territory, hasn”t extended any deeper. Narrow ranging has gotten volatile, but hasn”t become trending. Surging to 2112.00 into Europe”s opens has ranged widely, down to 2107.50 and back up again.

If, then…
Retracing yesterday”s 6-point noon hour surge was not insignificant. That surge had attracted new sponsorship, extending up another 2 points before peaking. Its reaction down did stop short of retracing back to the 2104.25
last relative low that had preceded the surge. So, duplicating yesterday afternoon”s rally would be credible for extending it much higher this time. The most credible rally attempt would gap up. But attempts to rally from under 2104.25 would more likely be only temporary corrective bounces on the way back down through yesterday”s lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2112.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be likely to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s pre-open bounce became a post-open plunge, from 2115.00 down to 2100.25. Despite not yet fulfilling the morning”s 2098.50 bias-down target, another bounce fulfilled the afternoon”s 2118.00 bias-up target. Then a shallower plunge ended the day by testing 2109.00, with no unfinished business above, and the morning”s unmet bias-down target outstanding below.

Overnight action”s new info…
Significant overnight action leads me to publish today”s First Trade much earlier than usual… Flat-to-lower ranging overnight had twice held 2112.00 resistance. Price began weakening at Europe”s opens, eventually cascading down to 2094.00. I”m going to go out on a limb here… Greece headline? Yep, Greek voters pushing back on austerity plans. Anyway, the reaction up from 2094.00 consolidated at yesterday morning”s 2100.25 low, and is now climbing higher to 2103.50.

If, then…
Just touching 2112.00 Friday had made last Tuesday”s 2096.00 low likely to be probed by 2-3 points. Last night”s plunge to 2094.00 neutralizes that attraction. But if a rally doesn”t exploit this vulnerability early, then a much more substantial decline will be underway.

First Trade…
Exiting the open above 2108.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2106.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2101.50 would be likely to recover the 2098.50 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2098.50 bias-down target, renewing the bias-down signal and putting 2078.75-2081.25 into play.