The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s 10-point gap down extended another 10 points into late-morning at 2082.00. That was the session low. A bounce was retraced almost entirely into the afternoon, while several sell signals stopped optimistically short of touching the low. The balance of the session ranged sideways.

Overnight action”s new info…
Greece headlines triggered a 9-point gap down Sunday night. Friday”s outstanding 2074.00 target was probed by 2 points during choppy sideways ranging back up to 2081.50.

If, then…
Last night”s lows tested Tuesday”s “lower prior highs.” This is a possible low that we discussed during Saturday Review. Below it is the gap back to Tuesday”s 2072.25 futures close which was also touched overnight. Having bounced there, just touching Tuesday”s 2070.00 cash session close could find an air pocket down to 2059.50. Any one of these levels is capable of launching a reversal back into positive territory — already recovering at the open could rally sharply into Wednesday morning. But not rejecting the drop by noon would be unlikely to avoid a much deeper decline underway.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2072.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering this morning”s 2074.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open above 2084.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s opening surge to 2106.75 had extended the pre-open firming form a narrow 5-point 2095.00-2100.00 overnight range. That narrow range had begun late Wednesday morning, after spiking up on anti-Grexit headlines. Another headline countered the 24-hour old bullish news, driving price back under 2100.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways narrowly again.

Overnight action”s new info…
A gradual drift to fresh overnight lows greeted Europe”s opens by firming to 2100.00, but resuming the drift touched 2095.00. Reacting up again pierced 2101.00, where Europe”s opens were greeted.

If, then…
A series of lower highs and lower lows since yesterday”s opening high has dropped 12 points. The slope has been shallow, so a lot of selling pressure has been expended without probing a prior low. This is not a buy signal, but it is a basis for expecting a buy signal to be very productive, very quickly. Similarly, nothing prevents extending down further — but a sell signal is less likely to be productive since so much selling pressure was expended already. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2094.25 would be likely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2102.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2106.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up above Tuesday”s 2076.75 high (basis Sep) wasted no time extending higher Wednesday to exceed the bias-up target. Renewing the bias-up signal next targeted 2092.00, which was met by late-morning. Then Greece news triggered a spike up to 2100.00, and the balance of the session ranged narrowly back to 2095.00. Buyers gained no traction for the effort, since both the bias environment exit and final hour entry were within the noon hour”s range.

Overnight action”s new info…
Yesterday afternoon”s narrow 2095.00-2100.00 5-point range has persisted through the night..

If, then…
Is the market walking on eggshells awaiting Greece”s next phase? Apparently. No other headline has its presence or its consequence, and things are happening. Just keep in mind that the first break from an extended narrowing range tends often to be false. This 5-point range is certainly extended, but night quite narrowing. Also, having contained the prior afternoon”s three timing windows within the same range, this morning”s timing windows can be contained if the open isn”t trending.

First Trade…
[The front-month rolls forward from Jun to Sep at this morning”s open] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2098.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2090.75 would be likely to trigger the 2093.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s pre-open drop to 2068.75 wasn”t retested intraday, but neither was it rejected. The morning”s bias-down target was satisfied to within 3 ticks, without oversold RSIs below needing a retest. The dips were reversed into positive territory attacking 2083.00 and 2085.00 — never above relevant resistance when it could reverse the trend back up, but the close essentially held positive territory. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, but neither did sellers.

Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging up to Tuesday”s high and back down to unchanged firmed again at Europe”s opens. That has extended to fresh highs testing 2089.00.

If, then…
Tuesday”s close was overlapping the 2078.75 lower-end of the decline”s target area. Monday”s close, too. Why did Monday”s find a hold-short compelling, but not Tuesday”s? Where Monday”s close had not maintained a reaction up from the target area, Tuesday”s close recovered from probes under it. Extending down is still possible, especially if gapping up this morning isn”t maintained through the open. Extending a gap up is the only credible start to a remaining in positive territory all day, if not also to trending back up.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.25 would likely also trigger the 2086.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2082.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s opening break extended down through the morning to fulfill the retest of Friday”s oversold RSIs at 2083.50. Extending down through the noon hour tested the decline”s 2081.25 objective. And lower lows going into the bias environment fulfilled potential for noise down to 2078.75, with an extra point of room. Bouncing to 2086.25 into the final hour opened the door to a short-squeeze, but it never materialized. Instead the entire bounce was retraced into the cash session close.

Overnight action”s new info…
.Choppy sideways action never extended yesterday”s decline, even through Europe”s opens where selling had been resuming. But a 13-point downleg began later, dropping to 2068.75. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively there, but that was enough to launch a 61.8% retracement of the drop back up to 2076.75.

If, then…
Fulfilling all downside objective yesterday took all of the session”s time, leaving none for rejecting the lows. Gapping up today above the late-afternoon bounce would have compensated for that delay, but the vulnerability to extending down seems to have won out. Overnight, at least, as the new downleg may have a scapegoat (Deutsche Bank offices raided) that allows knife-catchers a reason to step in. Isolating the reaction to overnight by opening in positive territory could trigger the short-squeeze that yesterday”s bias environment exit had suggested. Otherwise, the little support that is clustered 1-2 points under the 2068.75 overnight low would be the last defense against targeting 2044.00.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2076.50 would be likely also to probe under the 2075.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, and under 2072.50 would likely trigger it. Exiting the open above 2081.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down, and above 2085.00 likelier to trigger the 2084.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.