The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s expiration session trended down through its opening 15 minutes, setting the session”s tone. Its gap open down to the 2111.00 area, broke lower into the noon hour, and trended down through the close. Wednesday”s air pocket above 2100.00 to above 2105.00 was retraced. A late sell signal triggered under 2103.50 and extended quickly to the afternoon”s lowest calculable target at 2097.25. The late bullish WedEX either inverted or invalidated.

Overnight action”s new info…
Despite no Greece deal over the weekend, Sunday night”s open gapped back up to 2103.50. Consolidating narrowly held Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 prior high. Rallying resumed before Europe”s opens, and extended to 2118.00. RSIs diverged negatively there and now a pullback is testing 2111.75 by a couple of ticks, taking RSIs oversold.

If, then…
The corrective bounce limit back to Thursday”s high is 2114.75-2116.25. Recovering it post-open would target a retest Thursday”s prior high. That happens to be only 3 points higher at 2119.25 in this pattern, and its room for noise isn”t much higher. But its recovery would imply much more than that, resuming last week”s rally targeting new highs. Having tested 2114.75-2116.25, reversing down from here would be credible for launching a new downleg triggered back under 2106.00 and targeting a retest last week”s lows under 2063.00. Two potential bullish setups this morning are the “session-long rally” which rejects the prior afternoon”s downtrending by gapping up above the prior afternoon”s high, and a more powerful rejection of Friday”s entire session by gapping up above its session highs.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2111.75 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2109.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s 7-point gap up to Wednesday”s 2098.75 high quickly extended higher. The air pocket located above 2101.00 triggered a surge that extended higher through the noon hour to 2119.00. A reaction down to 2110.00 was largely retraced as the afternoon ranged choppily into the close… Thursday”s gap up served by proxy to trigger a late active bullish WedEX signal.

Overnight action”s new info…
Ranging between 2111.00-2114.00 narrowed into Europe”s opens, which launched a climb to 2117.75. Price action since then has been narrowing around this morning”s 2116.25 bias-up signal.

If, then…
WedEX is a Friday afternoon influence, so it doesn”t require the morning to trend up. This being an expiration session, trending through the opening 15 minutes is likely to trend in that direction throughout the day. Regardless, there”s no bullish reason to probe back under yesterday afternoon”s lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2118.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2116.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2111.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Despite an overnight rally, despite gapping up, and despite triggering bias-up, Wednesday morning ranged sideways, supported by its 2090.75 bias-up signal. That launched a decline which expended a lot of selling pressure during the weak-handed noon hour window, touching the afternoon”s 2080.00 bias-down signal”s support. So, optimistic buyers had been retrained and then weak-handed buyers had been expended. The afternoon”s FOMC statement easily surged to fresh highs at 2098.50, dipping into the close back down to 2091.25.

Overnight action”s new info…
A late sell signal had triggered under 2093.00, targeting 2085.00 or 2082.00. Both were met. In fact, 2082.00 was touched by a blip-down that spiked back up into a rally back to 2093.00. Its reaction was recovered back up to 2096.50, which is reacting back down now to 2093.00.

If, then…
Yesterday”s pre-open and post-open optimism had only one bullish effect — it allowed a lot of selling pressure to be expended without damaging the chart. Yesterday”s FOMC reaction seems to have had that reaction, too. But that may depend on restraining optimism before the open. Gapping up would be vulnerable to repeating yesterday”s pattern of reacting down deeply. Yesterday afternoon”s 2098.50 high printed too late to form a reliable “session-long rally” setup, but it would be credible. Just getting through 2100.00 can make the difference between pointing to new highs, or else retesting yesterday”s lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2096.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2095.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday night”s drop back down to intraday lows at 2062.00 had evaporated by Tuesday”s 2074.50 open. That pre-open recovery extended through the day to 2088.75. The bias environment”s exit was above the noon hour”s range, but that momentum wasn”t confirmed. Still, the afternoon”s bias-up triggered, leaving outstanding its 2090.75 target.

Overnight action”s new info…
The Globex open immediately spiked up to touch 2090.75. Extremely narrow ranging supported by Tuesday”s 2088.75 high eventually broke higher into and out of Europe”s opens. Touching 2096.50 (this morning”s bias-up target) has reacted back down into the narrow range at 2089.75.

If, then…
“Grehetoric,” Greece+Euro+exit+rhetoric… Grehetoric has been pretty thick overnight, which is to say just slightly above normal. That didn”t prevent probing above yesterday”s highs, let alone push price into negative territory. Most of the earlier gain is now retraced, but from higher levels that can help to absorb the selling before it gains traction. Trending very far is unlikely before this afternoon”s FOMC events. So, retracing yesterday”s rally should be limited if attempted at all, while rallying should be limited to retesting overnight highs.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 2093.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2090.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Greece news triggered Sunday night”s gap down, and extended it through Monday”s open to eventually touch 2062.75. Firming 8 points into late-morning to test the 2071.00 open, and then surged 8 points more to test 2078.25. The balance of the session ranged sideways, supported by 2072.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging crept back down to 2072.50 and then ranged narrowly around it. Its break came suddenly one hour before Europe”s opens, which were greeted at 2067.00. The break extended until one hour after Europe”s opens, piercing Monday”s low down to 2062.00. That extra dip was recovered, and and now more so, as 2071.00 is being tested.

If, then…
Sellers didn”t gain traction for yesterday”s efforts, so gapping down today is the only way to resume the decline. Gapping down would be defined by yesterday morning”s last relative low at 2068.00. Holding its support through the open and THEN declining is possible, but likely to be recovered. Meanwhile, holding its support through the open is likelier simply to rally back to yesterday”s 2078.25 highs. Having bounced already from an overnight slide, the bigger question right now is whether the bounce is rejecting that slide, or refueling it for a much deeper decline. Regardless of any unfinished business above, the decline is capable of resuming, aggressively.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2065.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would start becoming likelier also to exceed the 2060.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2052.00.