The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s early dip under prior lows down to 2091.25 wasn”t probed until the noon hour. The delay was made up by probing much deeper to 2086.25, fulfilling the afternoon bias-down target just as it was being triggered. The balance of the afternoon firmed back up to 2096.00, waiting too long to gain traction for the effort.

Overnight action”s new info…
Greece”s next phase began with its defiant announcement after Friday”s close, and continued through the weekend as the target of equally defiant announcements. Sunday night”s open gapped down 32 points and spiked down another 10 to 2054.00. Trending higher overnight eventually touched 2079.00. The latest reaction down 10 points has bounced back up to 2073.00

If, then…
Price has trended up relentlessly since Sunday night”s open gapped down. Exactly this behavior would not be bullish if duplicated at Monday”s open. But gapping down no lower than 2080.00 could still base before entering the noon hour in rally mode. Gapping down without recovering 2080.00 would be due to another round of selling pressure intending to influence the post-open environment, if not also resuming the decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2080.00 would be likely also to recover the 2082.25 bias-down target to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above only 2073.00 would be likely to retest the 2079.00 pre-open high (assuming that”s still the pre-open high) before resuming the decline. Exiting the open under 2073.00 would be much less likely to bounce before extending back down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Retracing Wednesday night”s rally to 2112.75 into Thursday”s open didn”t prevent gapping up above Wednesday afternoon”s 2105.50 high. But it wasn”t maintained, which turned a potential “session-long rally” setup into a “session-long decline.” The very last minutes probed fresh lows down to 2092.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Fresh lows were probed down to 2090.50 while China”s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) resumed plunging. That was relatively shallow (as have been all other reactions to SHCOMP plunges, ever since the first reaction was realized not to have any bearing on western valuations). It was easily recovered back above 2092.00 ahead of Europe”s opens, but only to range sideways up to 2095.00. Very recently, Greece headlines suggesting an offer by creditors have triggered a rally now testing yesterday”s last hour high at 2098.50.

If, then…
Is this pre-open rally any more durable than yesterday”s? Two contextual signals suggest not. First, session-longs like yesterday”s session-long decline tend to resume their influence through the following morning. Second, Wednesday morning”s break already triggered a downleg projected to last through Friday morning. Either influence can be negated by triggering bias-up. Otherwise, fresh lows this morning remain likely.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2096.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Touching 2099.25 during the open would require its recovery, too. Exiting the open under 2094.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s first hour had held the critical 2113.50 level, but a late surge from there only stretched the rubber band so it could snap back down. Hard. A sell signal triggered under 2112.75 and every bounce limit held as every timing window trended down on the way to 2101.50. Oversold RSIs during the afternoon bias environment waited for a bounce to stretch the rubber band again, snapping back down through the close to test 2099.25 support.

Overnight action”s new info…
The Globex open immediately began rallying into a 2102.00-2104.50 range while awaiting Europe”s opens. That resumed the rally, which eventually surged for its last 5-6 points up to 2112.75. Its reaction down to 2105.00 tried to resume the rally on a very favorable Greece headline. That stopped short of a fresh high when a customarily contradictory headline followed it. The headlines have only gotten worse, but so far the range is holding.

If, then…
Actually, the attempt to resume rallying stopped pessimistically short of touching the 2112.75 high. And that high had stopped pessimistically short of touching the critical 2113.50 level. Monday and Tuesday”s lows at or above 2112.00 were touched, so relevant resistance has been touched. If a rally can”t exploit having chipped away at resistance, the resolution could be that much more bearish. And since yesterday”s break under Monday and Tuesday”s lows signaled a drop underway through Friday morning, gapping up back above the prior lows could reject that setup and put into play new highs.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2107.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2105.75 bias-up signal at the 10:15 bias timing window 30 minutes later. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2113.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2110.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s shallow gap up extended too late to gain traction. Its rejection from 2120.25 fell to 2111.25. Isolating the fresh lows to the noon hour reflected weak-handed sellers. In fact, the afternoon”s buyers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high and entering the final hour even higher. The cash session”s close tested 2117.50. The one caveat was the relatively narrow intraday range undermining the traction, and needing to hold above 2113.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Blipping-up to 2118.50 at the Globex open was the bounce”s peak. Trending back down touched 2113.50 before bouncing again to 2117.50 through Europe”s opens. Retracing that bounce found an air pocket under 2113.50 that plunged to 2108.50. Its reaction up to 2113.50 is now being retested.

If, then…
The traction gained by yesterday afternoon”s bounce can still be rewarded during this morning”s bias. It depends upon recovering back above relevant support through a relevant timing window. That”s where 2113.50 comes in, especially now that it has been probed below, and probed so substantially. The overnight low essentially held a test of this morning”s 2108.25 bias-down target. Avoiding its repeat, or at least dispensing with it quickly, should resume yesterday afternoon”s recovery in a giant proportion that is still targeting new highs. Otherwise, still testing yesterday”s lows — i.e. triggering bias-down — could shut the door to new highs until next week.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2110.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
After having trended down into Friday”s close, Monday”s open formed a “session-long rally” setup by gapping up above Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 high. The minimum objective to retest last Thursday”s high was fulfilled by a late-morning probe above it around 2121.00. That was a likely spot for correcting, and the noon hour attacked 2112.00. Although a “session-long rally” normally would resume rallying, Tuesday afternoon only ranged choppily sideways.

Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s post-close dip to a fresh low attacking 2111.25 had reacted back up aggressively. That extended through the Globex open, attacking 2121.00 to within 2 ticks. Its 61.8% retracement down to 2115.00 is now retesting 2117.50.

If, then…
Did yesterday”s “session-long rally” fall and can”t get up, or is it just resting? Probably resting, since the morning”s rally didn”t invert during the afternoon. More so now, since overnight action has only firmed. But the next trending attempt is caught between two influences. One is that the rest can”t continue indefinitely without launching at least a temporary intraday drop. The other influence is that not yet resuming the rally pre-open would undermine a later attempt. So, gapping up — preferably above 2121.00 or quickly through it — would be credible for extending higher. But not gapping up would make any post-open sell-off likely to extend down.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2118.50-2119.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, and likely at least to test the 2121.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2122.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2121.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2112.00 would be likely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down at 10:15.