The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night”s plunge had been retraced considerably before the open. Its reaction down held the 2050.50 bias-down target and recovered the 2058.25 bias-down signal, putting into play tests of both bias-up parameters. The 2066.00 bias-up signal was probed to within 2 points of the 2072.25 bias-up target. Reacting down into the noon hour extended back to within 1 tick of 2050.50 at the bias environment”s low. A reversal pattern there was recovered to 2061.25 into the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
The final hour”s rally extended to 2065.00 by the futures close, and then to 2072.75 through the Globex open. Dipping to 2067.00 was recovered and extended higher to 2078.00 — within 1 point of Thursday”s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Its 9-point reaction down to 2068.00 is now 2 points under yesterday morning”s high.

If, then…
Yesterday”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their effort. In fact, sellers nearly gained traction, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low. But neither the final hour”s entry nor the 3:10-3:20 window extended down. The final hour”s rally expended buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort. Not reversing down this morning all but requires gapping up above yesterday”s high and extending aggressively with little delay. The 2072.25 unfinished business above might have enabled that, but its attraction is now neutralized. Reacting down from within 1 point of touching Thursday”s Employment report reaction might reflect some degree of pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. But that influence should be obvious soon after the open if it”s valid.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2070.25 would be likely to trigger the 2067.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s reaction to the pre-open Employment report surged to 2079.00, but failed to trigger bias-up. An offsetting test of the 2062.25 bias-down signal was fulfilled at the noon hour”s low. The close had recovered 2070.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Globex holiday trading through Friday”s noon hour dipped to 2063.25, putting into play 2058.00. Small potatoes. Sunday night”s open reacted to Greece”s no-vote by gapping down to 2034.25, off 34-35 points from Thursday”s close. Almost duplicating last Sunday night”s gap down, price action since then has trended up relentlessly. The plunge has been cut by two-thirds to test 2059.00 — where last Sunday night”s open had gapped down.

If, then…
Will this Sunday night”s plunge recovery continue duplicating last Sunday night”s reaction by resolving back down after Monday”s open? There is no requirement to retest last night”s open, which was not complex, so it is not a “new Globex trend extreme” that otherwise would require intraday retest. And having tested the next lower objective to 2040.25, there is no other “unfinished business below.” Not currently. Gapping open within last week”s range above 2046.75 can avoid creating a gap wanting to be filled from above. Recovering positive territory through the open could extend higher through the morning. But not already rallying out of the open would start making an intraday test of 2040.25 likely.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2062.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2058.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be likely to trigger the bias-up signal at 10:15, which is also 2066.00. Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2053.25 would be likely to trigger the 2058.25 bias-down signal. And exiting the open under 2047.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2050.50 bias-down target at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up to the 2074.00 area in reaction to favorable Greece news managed to hold up through the open. The balance of the session, not so much. The open”s session-long rally setup became inverted. The inversion was confirmed by falling to 2060.00 through the afternoon”s bias environment. But the last hour rallied anyway back up to 2070.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initially firming up to 2072.00 soon began reacting down to test 2068.00. Recovering back up to 2072.00 into Europe”s opens extended higher to 2076.25. Now a test of 2072.00 as support is reacting up, as the rally tries to extend.

If, then…
Sentiment isn”t extremely optimistic overnight, but it”s certainly not pessimistic. And yesterday”s final hour rally was pretty optimistic already. Even yesterday”s intraday slide developed entirely in positive territory. The three-day weekend”s fast-approaching illiquidity may be responsible for limiting counter-trend sponsorship sustaining. But look out below if this morning”s Employment Situation report disappoints. And look out below if a favorable reaction to the report were to hold a test of Monday morning”s high. The most bullish intraday setup may be for a steep reaction down were to greet the open at or above yesterday”s low, instead of gapping under it. With liquidity quickly evaporating into the afternoon, it will be difficult generating sponsorship to break free from the range if not already done through the open

First Trade…
Preliminary signals are not considered before Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday was reversed down immediately. The overnight rally, to 2069.00 was retraced into the noon hour, piercing Monday”s 2047.50 low. The afternoon”s no-bias rally to 2066.00 retraced to 2062.00 as was required, and even deeper down to 2052.50 by the cash session close. Spiking down into the futures close touched 2049.75. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action”s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, firming overnight evolved into a rally. A consolidation up to 2066.00 got welcome news from reports that Greece has offered significant concessions, triggering a surge to test and retest 2077.25. That has been retraced to attack 2069.00, amid reports that Germany isn”t talking while Greece”s referendum remains scheduled, and ahead of a live television address by Greece”s Prime Minister.

If, then…
The cycles of rally and retracement were becoming shorter and shallower, compressing price to the point of almost literally exploding in one direction or the other. Breaking higher first is not bullish for the bigger picture. It leaves “unfinished business below” that will require eventual retest, while neutralizing the overbought RSIs” attraction above that otherwise would suggest sellers were weak-handed. Nevertheless for the near-term, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon”s high could form a “session-long rally” setup. Could. But not maintaining the gap up would be as bearish as the setup could have been bearish, probably reversing to new lows intraday.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45above 2068.75-2070.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2065.75 bias-up target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2059.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.50 bias-up signal at 10:15, probably putting into play an offsetting test of the 2050.75 bias-down signal.

[MY APOLOGIES FOR THE TARDINESS OF THIS POST…]

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Monday in extreme sentiment tried to behave like a sentiment extreme, rallying through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But that works only when testing a prior low, as support, and not when opening beyond the range. Testing the morning”s 2082.25 bias-down target as resistance sent price relentlessly down 35 points to 2047.25, probing Sunday night”s low by 7 points, while testing and retesting the next lower objective of 2048.25 as RSIs diverged positively.

Overnight action”s new info…
.Firming up to 2058.00-2059.00 through Europe”s opens had dipped back down to 2053.00, when a surge broke sharply higher to 2069.00. Its 10-point reaction down to attack 2059.00 is trying to recover.

If, then…
Extending the plunge at this morning”s open was not assured. No new traction was gained Monday afternoon and downside objectives held their tests. Those conditions were true at Friday”s close, too, but Monday”s plunge was the product of new sponsorship. There being no new sponsorship overnight, the downleg was vulnerable to correcting back up. If counter-trend sponsorship has been attracted, then the correction will recover relevant levels through relevant timing windows. Maintaining a gap up back above yesterday afternoon”s ~2061.00 high, for example, could form a “session-long rally.” But too much higher could find the overnight bounce has already satisfied the counter-trend sponsorship. An example of that would be to hold a test of a prior timing window”s range — like yesterday morning”s 2068.50 low. Exceeding any relevant level tested during the open would help to reverse the trend back up today. Failing that would extend the plunge this morning.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2059.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Back under 2054.00 through 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2053.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.