The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s open gapped up to its bias-up 2026.50 target and extended higher from there to fulfill the highest renewed bias-up target attacking 2035.00. Choppy backing-and-filling was likely to be only temporary, but it lasted a little longer and fell a little deeper than usual for the pattern. Regardless, the eventual resolution did extend well above the open”s high to test 2044.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Ranging back down to 2039.00 began extending lower ahead of Europe”s opens. A 10-point surge from barely touching 2033.00 was retraced as quickly to 2039.00, and now almost all the way back down to 2033.00 amid non-conciliatory Greece debt headlines.

If, then…
There is no “unfinished business above” in-play, and yesterday”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their efforts. But the rally”s momentum nevertheless remains intact — with a path to probing above 2059.00-2062.50 intraday — so long as the open does not retrace the last relative low at 2032.00. If not rejected and recovered immediately, that could reverse the trend down to retest Monday afternoon”s range under 2000.00.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2032.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2035.25 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2039.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday morning”s shallow opening strength didn”t attract sponsorship that could recover from testing the range”s lower-end. So, the lower-end was probed to fresh lows at 1973.75. Its 30-point reaction ahead of noon was corrected by 20 points in time for a 35-point rally, testing Thursday-Friday”s 2017.50 close. The final hour”s entry didn”t reflect the rally gaining traction for its effort, but the rally extended higher anyway. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low

Overnight action”s new info…
Dipping through midnight down to 2007.00 was recovered and extended to fresh highs at 2025.00. Monday”s close held a pullback that has recovered to fresh highs at 2028.00.

If, then…
Will Tuesday”s open succeed where Monday”s open failed, or repeat it? Gapping up enough to break free from any attraction back to the lows would likely trend higher through the morning. Otherwise, another shallow gap up would attractive more sellers than sponsorship for extending higher.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2028.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2026.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2014.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2020.00 bias-up at 10:15, and at least test the 2010.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s session was a wide-ranging inside day, spent exclusively in negative territory after gapping down. But it was more interesting in two ways. First was the late-morning reversal up from having trended down post-open, saved by a trial balloon that would seem to relieve Grexit fears. A second highlight was the afternoon bias environment”s exit, which had just rallied back to unchanged (filling the open”s gap), only to plunge 31 points to a fresh session low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initial firming to 1993.00 was reversed to a fresh low at 1984.00, but that was soon recovered to 1995.00.More sideways ranging since then has included a touch of 1998.00, which is not delaying a reaction back down into the range at 1994.00.

If, then…
France”s support for Greece was leaked yesterday, but so far nothing more concrete has emerged regarding the real stumbling block, which is German. Friday morning”s trial balloon has drawn focus to Grexit. Without a solidly sourced statement sooner rather than later, selling could resume. At least, I would assume as much, since the pattern suggests fresh will be probed today unless opening strength can avoid being too shallow. Probing fresh lows could still be recovered intraday, but probably not after today.

First Trade…
[NOTE THIS MORNING”S REVISED BIAS-UP PARAMETERS]
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1998.75 would be likely at least to test the 2002.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2004.50 would be likely also to trigger bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1994.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and increasingly likely to at least test the 1983.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning”s probe of fresh lows satisfied all known selling pressure down to 1982.00, while being sponsored by weak hands, which became trapped through the noon hour”s entry. Rallying 37 points to almost 2019.00 through the balance of the session wasn”t necessarily sponsored by strong hands — the afternoon”s no-bias environment missed two opportunities to be negated on a timely basis (at its 2000.00 signal and its 2008.00 target), and the recovery peaked a couple of points short of its optimal objective. But the session did form a bullish Pivot Reversal, and buyers gained traction for their effort.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initial firming up to 2020.50 was short-lived, and downtrending since then has touched this morning”s 2001.00 bias-down target. A bounce from there attacked 2008.00.

If, then…
Garbage in, but not entirely out: Having gained traction, yesterday”s buyers are assumed to have earned control of this morning”s bias environment. The overnight drop is threatening to invalidate that traction, by gapping down under a prior low like 2001.50. We gave yesterday”s buyers a benefit of the doubt for not needing to revisit 2000.00, so holding its retest would neutralize that potential attraction below. The last supports are yesterday”s 1999.00 opening print, and the 1:20 bias timing window”s 1996.00 low. If the Pivot Reversal isn”t effective soon after the open, then the bullish setup would invert to being bearish — yesterday”s buyers never proved they were strong-handed, and yesterday”s weak-handed sellers did chip away at support. Not extending the recovery could easily default to resuming the decline, which would become a melt-down into the weekend.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.75 would be likely to trigger the 2008.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1999.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2001.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2011.00 would make the bias-down signal unlikely to trigger.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon”s portion of the intraday slide measured 40 points from high to low. The 1996.25 cash session close was considered a hold-short, and the futures close extended down to 1991.25. Despite the final hour”s entry being within the bias environment”s range, sellers still gained traction because the 3:10-3:20 window trended down to fresh lows that confirmed the bias environment”s bearish exit.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initially bouncing through midnight to 1997.25 suddenly plunged to 1988.00. That was recovered by a fresh high at 1999.00. Its reaction down attacked 1991.25, but 1997.25-1999.00 attracted price right back up again. Now 1999.00 is being tested as support by a reaction down from 2003.00. That”s just within 1 tick of the resistance of this morning”s 2003.25 bias-up signal.

If, then…
One yesterday”s last critical observations was not to trust the bounce coming out of the bias environment. It had slowed the drop”s pace and was 10 points higher, but it had not recovered a prior high. The same can be said in principle about the overnight bounce. Sellers gained traction yesterday, so fresh lows are in store unless the open were to gap up above a prior high. And this overnight bounce is nowhere near a prior high. Gapping up might still be bullish if an intraday probe of fresh lows were recovered to close back above the open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.00 would be likely to trigger the 2003.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1997.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. And exiting the open under 1986.75 would be likely to trigger the 1990.75 bias-down.