The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Favorable China trade war news triggered Thursday night’s 35-point surge from 2731.00. Its optimism could be added to Thursday’s pre-close optimism, a last-minute break higher above afternoon ranging, without gaining traction, ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings. And now there was optimism ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report. Even more optimistically, AAPL’s negative reaction was largely ignored. So, greeting Friday’s open at 2751.00 extended down sharply to probe its target by several ticks down to 2699.50 as the noon hour ended. Bouncing to 2728.00 ranged sideways into the 2722.00-2724.00 close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending narrow ranging has finally broken out. Is it a false break? Sunday night’s open had immediately slid 9-11 points to attack 2713.00, and then to test it. A 7-point range up to 2720.00 persisted through Europe’s opens before finally breaking. Now a 3-hour old rally is starting to probe above Friday afternoon’s highs, and probing this morning’s 2728.50 bias-up signal by 1 point.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s slide was by definition a surprise, as the overnight rally was reversed from well into positive territory to deeply negative. Turning a 28-point gain into a 28-point loss expended a lot of selling pressure, but no traction was gained from the effort as the two prior sessions’ lows held a brief afternoon probe. So, converting Friday’s drop into a new downleg all but requires resuming this morning to fresh lows, or resolving down after shallow backing-and-filling this morning. Initially backing-and-filling this morning also describes a recovery’s early stages. And overnight action doesn’t currently indicate resuming the decline, not unless the bias-up signal were to hold a post-open test and trigger no-bias, or its current test is already reversing down pre-open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2730.50 would be likely to trigger the 2728.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s wide swings triggered multiple signals, up and down, that all produced multi-point moves within minutes. They all also reversed to and through their triggers, substantially. Trump threw a China trade tweet into the mix, creating a bottom at 2708.00 and a surge through the 2720.00 open to 2731.00. Wide swings were replaced by grinding higher through the morning bias environment, noon hour, and afternoon bias environment. Multiple opportunities were ignored to accelerate the pace, finally breaking higher after becoming too late to gain traction for the effort. A very late blip-up to the 2741.00 objective was consolidated through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
A Tale of Two Markets. First, AAPL’s earnings disappointed as its chart had suggested, triggering a reaction down to Thursday’s 2726.00 opening highs. Globex immediately probed lower to 2723.00, and just as quickly began firming up to 2730.00. A surge attacked Thursday’s high before retracing back down to 2730.00 by midnight. And then came the news — another favorable China trade headline, which triggered a 14-point spike up to 2747.75 that extended another 17 points to test 2764.00, ranging sideways since Europe’s opens. There’s room for noise to fresh highs at 2766.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing above Wednesday’s 2737.00 high would have been bullish, had the breakout been underway prior to ignoring the timely breakout opportunities. Breaking higher later isn’t strong-handed sponsorship. So, now trading higher overnight — regardless of by how much — the question is whether yesterday’s post-close dip neutralized the late breakout’s “ineffectual optimism,” which would next target 2773.50 and 2786.75. Otherwise, yesterday’s late ineffectual optimism could apply as much to AAPL’s earnings as to this morning’s Employment Situation report. And any initial weakness would be credible for extending down, confirmed under 2750.75, and targeting 2729.00-2731.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications are normally unavailable prior to Employment Situation reports. However, relevant levels above are 2773.50 and 2786.75; relevant levels below are 2750.75 and 2733.75.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session resembled death-defying acrobatic stunts on a high-wire, high above the ground. Already rallying 30-33 points overnight, the 2712.00 gap up established a position of strength during the opening 15 minutes. Despite the rally soon extending to test 2729.00, it was retraced entirely to attack 2708.00 into the noon hour. Like the high-wire acrobat’s forward flip. Then came another, jumping even higher to 2737.00. Not yet extending higher through the bias environment exit or final hour entry made a pullback increasingly likely. But what was likely to be only short and/or shallow became a very satisfying drop under its 2729.00 sell signal to test 2710.00 at the cash session close, and 2706.00 at the futures close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex began rallying immediately, testing and retesting what is this morning’s 2721.00 bias-up signal up to 2722.25 before midnight. Retracing it into and out of Europe’s opens tested and retested 2708.00, essentially back down to unchanged. Another bounce soon began, and it is now probing a fresh highs now testing 2727.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is the high-wire act back? No “unfinished business” was left outstanding Wednesday, although its 2729.00-2739.00 highs are likely to be probed up to 2741.00. Gapping down under Wednesday’s lows to isolate its session would signal otherwise, and it’s not yet too late to begin that effort, but it’s getting there. Until very recently, the overnight bouncing has still been only a range. Meanwhile, extending higher to test yesterday’s highs at the open would have only a narrow window either to exceed them, or else to hold their test and reverse down again.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2722.50 would be likely to trigger the 2717.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2715.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Mostly rallying overnight up to 2664.00 had been retraced to greet Tuesday’s open in negative territory under 2643.00. The 2636.25 earlier Globex low and morning’s 2633.50 bias-down signal were tested pre-open. Both held to avoid the overnight rally’s retracement from setting a bearish tone for the morning. Quite the opposite, the resolution proved as bullish as the setup could have been bearish if triggered. Quickly surging to 2675.00 was largely retraced, and another surge to 2674.00 was retraced again to a fresh low at 2640.50 while testing and holding the afternoon’s bias-down target. The bias environment exit surged again, extending to fresh highs at 2690.00 through the close. Three steep substantial surges, and it was still an inside day, well under Monday morning’s 2707.00 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging broke higher after midnight, steadily extending to 2704.25 — a recently relevant area — Monday’s initial surge was testing 2704.50 resistance when it peaked. Reacting down 8 points was soon recovered entirely, briefly probing a fresh high up to 2706.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Inside days tend to reflect weak-handed sponsorship. So, being biased upward suggests that strong hands are still sellers. That said, inside day or not, “weak-handed” buyers did produce a 41-point rally. Initially extending higher Wednesday would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher intraday, regardless of its sponsorship strength. Extending through Monday morning’s high(where a deep reversal began) would next target Thursday’s late highs up to 2720.50 (where another deep reversal began). Otherwise, a morning decline depends at least on not extending the overnight high or renewing the bias-up signal, if not failing to trigger bias-up.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2692.50 would be likely to trigger the 2691.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2704.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2700.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally had probed above Friday’s  2692.00 high up to 2700.50, easily postured to isolate Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism.” But Monday’s open developed around 2692.00 instead of trending above it, creating a position of weakness. That didn’t prevent probing higher to 2707.00, but any probe higher would be doomed to failure. And the probe to 2707.00 failed, to put it mildly, plunging 104 points to the afternoon’s 2603.00 low. The last 15 minutes reacted up 40 points to 2643.00. Oversold RSIs left outstanding at the low require an eventual retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex has been spent essentially exclusively in positive territory. Hope literally springs eternal. The late bounce waited to resume for Asia’s opens, and extended higher through midnight to test 2664.00. Brief hovering soon began reversing back down to unchanged at 2643.00. Natural support reacted back up to 2656.50, which is now struggling to maintain, let alone to extend higher.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday afternoon’s sellers gained traction for their efforts through the final hour’s entry. There’s no threat to invalidate it, other than the difficulty of probing yesterday’s lows this morning from currently being 50 points higher. None of which prevents a bearish morning influence. Having spent the session essentially exclusively in positive territory, exiting the open back under its earlier 2636.25 low could trigger a sort of Globex-flip — rejecting the overnight productivity without probing the intraday high. Disappointment with not extending yesterday’s late bounce could evolve quickly into another plunge. If not already greeting the open back under 2636.25, then rallying instead through the open could spring more hope and delay the inevitable again, always eager to hand out more rope.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2658.50 would be likely to trigger the 2652.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2669.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2667.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2636.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.