The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report had kept overnight action range bound, wide and choppy between 2900.00-2915.00. The report’s volatile reaction still greeted the open flat at 2906.00. The relative calm was a trap, luring in buyers to try resuming Thursday afternoon’s recovery. The trap was sprung at 2914.00, which reversed down to slide 41 points to 2873.25 into the afternoon bias environment. The drop ignored the morning’s no-bias environment to extend under the morning’s 2900.25 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment. The afternoon’s bias-down target was neutralized to within 1 point and RSIs weren’t oversold. Bouncing 21 points into the final hour up to 2874.50 then ranged sideways into the weekend.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open initially popped-up to 2898.25, but then soon dipped 10 points to attack 2888.00, which is this morning’s bias-down signal. The range persisted, bouncing again to its upper-end, and reversing back down to greet Europe’s opens back at the range’s lower-end. But the retest didn’t hold as the reversal extended down to 2882.50. Now a bounce probing 2888.00 is reversing back down, too.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
“Unfinished business” from Friday morning’s no-bias trending under 2900.25 might not be retraced this morning if there’s another overnight low under 2882.50, especially under 2777.00. Holding a retest of Friday’s 2873.25 low should be isolated, either overnight or to the morning to prevent a more substantial downleg. Friday’s close avoided a more substantial downleg by closing back above 2879.00. The next lower objective would be 2850.00, retracing the leg prior to the month-old rally. The only path to avoiding downside pressure this morning may require no less than to open in positive territory — not as an Isolation setup, but to indicate that the thinner Columbus Day trading is inhibiting sellers. Meanwhile, keep in mind its thinner holiday trading will make trending difficult to start, and then difficult stop.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2891.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2888.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2885.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s 2913.25 overnight low had recovered to greet Thursday’s open at 2924.00. Its test held “higher prior lows” and didn’t attract reinforcements. The open slid back under 2919.00 that had been critical to hold into last weekend. Its break confirmed downside projections of 2901.00 and 2896.00 without any particular timing requirement. Both were met by noon, and the afternoon’s 2888.00 renewed bias-down target was met at the bias environment’s exit. The balance of the session bounced through the close up to 2906.00-2908.00, at two-week old higher prior lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late bounce extended initially to 2915.50, but had fallen back down to Thursday’s 2906.00-2908.00 close. Ranging into Europe’s opens suddenly collapsed back down to 2901.00, which has now reacted back up to 2906.00-2908.00 ahead of this morning’s Employment Report.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing back above the relevant levels of 2901.00, 2894.00 and 2888.00 suggests the selling pressure targeting them was fulfilled. Selling pressure this morning would be the product of new sponsorship. It would be vulnerable to being trapped on a 2-3 point retest of Thursday’s 2888.00 low. Not holding its test would next target 2879.00 for probably the last near-term or nearby chance to avoid a much more substantial decline. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report could reach higher prior lows at 2928.00-2929.50, where timing would determine whether Friday Factors still allow another downdraft, or else trigger the short-squeeze that Thursday afternoon’s bounce tried to be.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of the Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up above Tuesday’s 2936.00 highs was rewarded by extending to within 2 ticks of the morning’s 2945.25 renewed bias-up target calculation. A structural point is also outstanding there, which a 2-3 tick proximity doesn’t neutralize. But the reaction down to 2936.00 recovered only to 2942.00. And for a second consecutive session, the afternoon bias environment’s exit inverted the pattern’s likelier break higher by breaking lower. Sharply lower, 16 points down to 2925.50. Closing at or above 2928.00-2930.00 prevented sellers from gaining traction, but closing under 2936.00 prevented resuming upside momentum. No unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late bounce from 2925.50 up to 2928.00-2930.00 was retraced immediately into the Globex open, back down to Tuesday afternoon’s 2924.00 low. Pauses have been brief all the way down to 2913.25 through Europe’s opens. Its retest has bounced up to 2922.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is the overnight action a glimpse of things to come? It may be reducing selling pressure to give buying pressure a better chance intraday. Extending yesterday afternoon’s reversal had room down to the 2919.00 area, while still being within the bottoming pattern, which is being tested now. But it’s being tested from below, from probing under 2915.50, whose post-open break would signal a much deeper drop underway. More so, a much deeper drop would likely begin by gapping down through 2915.50 and collapsing through the morning, targeting 2901.00 and lower. Opening back above Monday’s 2922.50 low would keep alive Tuesday’s Isolation setup that hasn’t yet retraced the 2-week old 2946.25 high, but there would still be plenty of challenges above to overcome before signaling the trend has reversed back up. One of those challenges being in-play right here, right now, if this overnight bounce attacking Monday’s 2922.50 low holds its resistance instead of extending higher through it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2915.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2918.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2920.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2925.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2927.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was essentially unchanged at the 2928.00-2929.50 range, fully recovering an overnight probe under Monday’s 2922.50 low down to 2917.50. This basis for an Isolation setup was confirmed by avoiding fresh lows intraday. The pre-open recovery extended higher to touch 2936.00 at noon. The noon hour’s 5-point dip was recovered entirely through the bias environment, but no higher. Instead the pattern collapsed back down to the 2924.00 post-open low, reacting up to 2930.00 into the close. Sellers gained traction by entering the final hour at fresh afternoon lows, confirmed through the proxy window.

Overnight action’s new info…
Nothing has suggested that sellers gained traction. After correcting yesterday’s late bounce by 61.8% down to 2926.00, a surge attacked yesterday’s 2936.00 highs well before midnight. An Ascending Triangle has formed from ranging sideways through Europe’s opens.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday afternoon’s sellers gained traction, and their reward at some point would probe under 2924.00. The first two possible windows have passed, leaving this morning, which isn’t at all indicated. The setup is conflicted with the Double Top at Tuesday’s highs, which is generally a position of strength that enables recovering from a reaction down. And it already corrected 61.8% to 2924.00. Gapping up above Tuesday’s highs will take priority over any attraction below. Similarly, any attraction below will take priority if Tuesday’s highs hold through a relevant timing window. Tuesday’s Isolation setup now allows a temporary probe under its intraday lows, but that limitation will become irrelevant if the Isolation setup’s reward of fresh highs were to develop first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2937.00 would be likely to trigger the 2933.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2930.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2934.50 was well above Friday’s 2919.00 close. And above Friday’s 2925.50 high. Also above Thursday 2932.00 high. Wednesday’s 2936.00 high had been probed overnight before finally dipping 6 points to test 2932.00 as support. That late discount attracted reinforcements at the open that quickly extended the rally to 2942.00. The balance of the session trended down nearly 20 points to 2922.50. Positive territory (barely) held which is a lot of selling pressure to expend without gaining traction for the effort. But even attacking Friday’s range let alone touching it suggested that buyers weren’t such strong sponsorship as the overnight and opening surge had suggested. “Lower prior highs” down to 2928.00 were recovered as support through the close. Oversold RSIs at Monday’s low will want to be retested.

Overnight action’s new info…
The selling and downtrending has persisted. Immediately blipping-up to 2930.75 immediately began reversing back down to attack Monday’s lows. First to 2924.00 before midnight, and then to attack 2921.00 into Europe’s opens. Reacting up to the 2925.25 bias-down signal resolved in new lows down to 2917.50. Now its reaction is attacking 2925.25 as resistance. Could yesterday’s close be recovered next?

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
That last question could prove pivotal, whether today’s open is back up above yesterday’s 2928.00 cash session close. Just recovering yesterday’s 2922.50 low to form an Isolation setup would still probe Friday’s range intraday, which a rally should be rejecting forcibly as early as possible. Recovering even further overnight to open back above the earlier 2930.75 low would upgrade the Isolation setup into a Globex-flip that adds momentum to recovering this morning. Until then, there’s risk of resuming and extending the slide considerably. “Unfinished business” above would be minimal, as yesterday retraced the prior Friday’s high session by 61.8%, although that’s not optimal. And the high’s gap up remains unfilled. So, ether Monday’s drop is in the process of completing a backing-and-filling pullback, or else gapping down Tuesday under Friday afternoon’s 2915.50 low will be vulnerable to collapse.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2923.50 would be likely to trigger the 2925.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2929.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.