The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted at the morning’s 2912.25 bias-up signal, and only probed it momentarily before dipping back into Thursday’s range. Higher highs had been probed up to 2917.25 overnight into and out of Europe’s opens, forming a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. But that was left outstanding while the morning dipped back down to 2906.50 and the afternoon fell to 2902.00. But a late afternoon surge returned to Thursday’s 2912.00 high, and the 2911.25 close was slightly positive on the day.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trade war headlines Sunday afternoon triggered a gap down Sunday night. But it was relatively shallow at 2909.00, even after sliding to 2904.00. Narrow ranging there into Europe’s opens was reversed up to Friday’s 2911.25 close. Its reaction down is now testing 2906.00-2907.00 as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close was a new trend high, but not above prior intraday highs, which would have entrenched the rally. Recovering from more backing-and-filling is possible, but the rally requires no more of that. So, resuming the rally today requires gapping up or else waiting until late afternoon. Gapping up would have been probing higher usually by now — there’s still time, but it needs to be obvious soon. Meanwhile, bubbling and percolating with probes into positive territory testing 2914.50 would help to pass time while awaiting a clear window to rally. Otherwise, extending the pullback has room to test 2987.00 without beginning to threaten reversing the trend down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2907.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2908.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday was likely to extend Wednesday’s rally, and the open was required to gap up if the rally was going to resume. Indeed, Thursday’s 2905.00 open was already 5 points above Wednesday’s high and 15 points above the overnight low, and a brief consolidation resolved up sharply to 2912.00. Reacting down to 2902.00 stopped optimistically short of touching Wednesday’s “lower prior highs,” which was an appropriate characteristic for this stage of ending the two-week old pullback. The reaction was recovered to within 1 tick of the open’s high — stopping pessimistically short, which tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. The balance of the session ranged choppily, narrowly sideways to the highest close since August’s high at 2910.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s narrow, choppy range persisted through midnight, dipping only to 2907.50. Breaking higher into and out of Europe’s opens tested 2917.00. A pullback down to 2913.25 is now trying to resume the rally.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Dipping only to  2902.00 Thursday created a position of strength, or anchor, that allows a deeper dip to “lower prior highs” at 2897.00 if needed. Thursday afternoon’s extra dip may already have checked that box, which we’ll know by Friday’s open maintaining a gap up. Gapping up is necessary to resume the rally immediately, since Thursday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its effort. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Other reliably predictive Friday Factors may come into play in the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2915.25 would be likely to trigger the 2912.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2909.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had held a test of the 2893.00 earlier overnight low (basis Dec), which avoided a bearish morning since overnight action had probed Tuesday’s high. But it didn’t prevent triggering the 2889.50 bias-down signal, or quickly fulfilling its Its 2884.00 bias-down target. But avoiding the bearish setup should have been as bullish as it would have been bearish. That was demonstrated by only a temporary surge to 2900.25 which was only a knee-jerk reaction to a headline. And it was retraced entirely back down to its 2888.00 origin. The close recovered 2894.00-2897.00 — still the highest close in a week, but buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially reacting down to 2891.00 and eventually down to 2890.00, overnight action has otherwise ranged choppily. Yesterday’s late 2897.25 high was finally pierced by a couple of ticks, and its 3-point reaction down to 2894.00 is recovering through yesterday’s high by several ticks up to 2891.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
[Reminder: The front-month rolls forward at this morning’s open to Dec which trades at a 5-point premium to Sep]… Having failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon, resuming the rally without delay all but requires gapping up Thursday. Not already probing higher overnight would likely already be probing lower, and be more vulnerable to trending down. Overnight hasn’t probed a prior low nor touched its bias-down signal. The window only now is probing a prior high, which is still early enough to extend ahead of the open. Yesterday’s close was retesting the highest close in a week, “unfinished business” above at 2895.50 (basis Sep) was neutralized, and now both are being probed overnight instead of rejected — so, today is an excellent opportunity to end the 2-week old pullback, and not doing so would be bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2901.50 would be likely to trigger the 2900.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2898.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s retest of 2884.50 resistance had held once again, this time with help from China tariff headlines that triggered a slide to 2867.25 through Tuesday’s open. That test of both bias-down parameters held, and offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters were fulfilled as the bias window ended and as the noon hour began. Things went sideways from there, ranging around the morning’s 2890.75 bias-up target and the afternoon’s 2891.25 bias-up signal, down to 2887.50. No new unfinished business was left outstanding, and no traction was gained.

Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility wasn’t much different overnight than it was Tuesday afternoon, but it was more productive. Initially flat-to-lower, a dip to 2886.25 was recovered back up to and through Tuesday’s highs to 2895.25. Coming within 3 ticks of “unfinished business” at 2895.50 has neutralized it, and price has since dipped back down to 2890.75.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Without gaining traction Tuesday afternoon, immediately resuming the morning’s rally Wednesday would require gapping up above 2893.00. Currently, only probing temporarily above Tuesday’s high isn’t indicating a gap up… or a gap down. And having probed overnight above yesterday’s intraday high, exiting the open under the 2888.00 earlier overnight lows would reverse trending down for at least this morning — if not also through tomorrow morning. Overnight highs neutralized the 2895.50 objective, so maintaining its recovery should point higher. Reversing down could test “lower prior highs” at 2882.00-2883.00 simply as noise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2895.50 would be likely to trigger the 2894.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2890.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rosh Hashanah holiday worship had its usual impact on market volume Monday, inhibiting both trending and volatility. An overnight bounce touched 2886.75, neutralizing its attraction above. A post-open blip-up to 2888.25 held the retest, as well as both bias-up parameters. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters was put into play at 2871.00 and 2864.75. Reversing down through the noon hour got to only 2876.50, before ranging sideways around 2777.00-2780.00 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming steadily recovered up to 2885.00 by midnight. Hovering there into Europe’s opens gradually weakened, and then slipped to 2780.50. A 45-minute Flag collapsed 10 points to attack 2871.00 before 1-minute RSI finally diverged positively. A bounce up to 2876.00 is still consolidating.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
No traction was gained yesterday, so trending beyond its range this morning all but requires gapping open, which is currently indicated. Recovering to open within yesterday’s range that tries trending beyond it would be likely to fail. Meanwhile, having neutralized the 2871.00 “unfinished business” put into play yesterday morning — it’s also this morning’s bias-down target — opening under yesterday’s range would be likely also to test 2864.75 today, and be vulnerable to new pullback lows targeting 2857.00. Upside attractions at 2892.25 and 2895.50 can’t be considered until at least rallying back into yesterday’s range.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2879.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2877.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2875.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.