The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
An otherwise unremarkable overnight range at 2872.00-2879.00 had briefly pierced slightly above and below it. And then sharply below it, just  before the open. Suddenly breaking a steady overnight range within 2 hours of the open is often a false break, and touching 2865.00 snapped back up 20 points to reject tests of both bias-down parameters. Recovering 2884.50 into the noon hour would have triggered a short-squeeze for Friday afternoon. But reacting down to the 2877.00 inflection point was blind-sided by a tariff headline. Its knee-jerk reaction collapsed to 2868.00. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher, closing at 2874.00-2875.00. Unfinished business above at 2886.75, 2892.25 and 2895.50 would have to wait. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Friday afternoon.

Overnight action’s new info…
Whether Friday’s pattern would resolve up, or down, another corrective bounce had room up to 2879.75-2881.50. Sunday night immediately began firming and extended up to 2881.75 well before midnight. Its reaction down attacked 2877.00 into Europe’s open where the overnight rally resumed. Fresh overnight highs just probed Friday’s high up to this morning’s 2886.75 bias-up target’s resistance.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Happy New Year! Today’s volume will be thinner because this is the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah. Thin volume is also vulnerable to producing the least likely resolutions, or to the biggest detours. One or the other is underway overnight. Friday’s buyers failed to gain traction, so the pullback can extend to lower levels like 2857.00, unless today’s open were to gap up above Friday’s 2884.50 high — which is being tested now. Not triggering the recovery setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish, like extending the pullback down to 2857.00. Meanwhile, relentless overnight trending often either reverses direction at the open, or else extends if not reversed through the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2877.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2884.50 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2888.75 would be likely to exceed the 2886.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s first half-hour ranged around unchanged at 2999.00-2889.00. But the attraction to retest Wednesday’s oversold RSIs at its 2877.25 low pulled price down to 2869.00 before the bias window lapsed. A bounce held a test of 2877.25 before retesting the low by another point down to 2868.00 as the after noon bias window opened. Rallying back up to 2884.50 failed to close higher, testing 2880.25 as support through the close .

Overnight action’s new info…
Not much has developed overnight as the market waits for this morning’s Employment Situatiopn report. Globex initially attacked 2871.00 as support through Asia’s opens, and then eventually tested 2881.00 as resistance into Europe’s opens. Reacting back down has attacked 2872.00 as support, with the payrolls report just 90 minutes away.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering 2880.25 and 2884.50 Thursday would have sealed a bottom and greeted this morning’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Perhaps that was prevented by pessimism ahead of the report, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Absent that, gapping up sufficiently — like, above Thursday morning’s 2893.00 high — could serve by proxy for buyers to gain traction and rally sharply higher through the morning, initially attracted to Wednesday afternoon’s 2895.50 bias objective that is “unfinished business” above. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 2857.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Dropping back down to Tuesday’s lows overnight had all but ensured that Wednesday’s open wouldn’t gap up. And that was the only way to resume rallying immediately since buyers hadn’t gained traction. More so, Tuesday’s lows — and the overnight retests — had narrowly avoided fulfilling their potential down to 2884.50 or 2880.25. But Wednesday’s first hour took care of that, collapsing down to 2877.50. Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low require its eventual retest. Meanwhile, a couple of higher lows formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher while triggering the afternoon’s 2888.75 bias-up signal. Stopping 2 points short of its 2995.00 bias-up target, the balance of the afternoon only ranged flat-to-lower back down to within 1 tick of 2884.50. Unfinished business was left outstanding at 2877.50 below and 2995.00 above.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s ranging has persisted overnight in a wide, sideways choppiness. First bouncing back up to 2891.00 didn’t hold, and Europe was greeted by dipping back under Wednesday’s lows down to 2882.00. That’s where and when the dip stopped, at least for now, bouncing to attack yesterday afternoon’s highs near 2893.00. Now another dip is probing 3-4 points back into negative territory and attacking yesterday afternoon’s low down to 2885.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing at or around 2888.00-2889.00 wasn’t decisive enough to assume whether the next “unfinished business” to be resolved is of 2877.50 below or of 2995.00 above. Testing the lower objective first would at least tell us the weakness since last week has probably been defensive posturing ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. That’s the more bullish scenario for greeting the news — testing the lower objective, probably down to 2875.00, and bouncing from its test. Meanwhile, 2995.00 could be probed by another 10 points before even beginning to suggest the pullback is being recovered, instead of just corrected temporarily.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2884.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2882.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The 3-day holiday weekend was exited back at Friday’s 2891.25 low. A brief bounce resolved down to a fresh low at 2886.00, which was retested after probing a fresh session high at 2901.00. The low’s retest down to 2885.50 which nearly touched the 2884.50 attraction for the current downleg.  The balance of the session firmed into the close, and the entire session developed in negative territory. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging sideways at yesterday’s highs up to 2890.50 began reversing down into Europe’s opens. Extending down tested and retested yesterday’s low down to 2885.00. Ranging at the lows up to 2889.50 for several hours is just now trying to break higher.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s intraday rallies had failed to leave oversold territory, and none gained traction for their efforts or left outstanding higher objectives. None of which is necessarily bearish, but not gapping up today has left open the door to retesting yesterday’s low — especially since yesterday’s low did not fully exploit the room below to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Gapping down keeps that lower potential alive, while also creating an attraction above to the gap back up to yesterday’s close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2891.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 2897.50 only attacked Thursday’s 2902.00 close, holding the 2898.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction quickly fulfilled the bias objective, an offsetting test of the 2907.50 bias-up signal. But just opening within the range of Thursday’s lows had made lower lows likely, probably down to unfinished business below at 2892.25. Which trending back down into the noon hour fulfilled. The afternoon ranged sideways at the lows again, keeping alive potential for extending down deeper to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Trade headlines inhibited any trending, until Canada’s trade negotiator held her press conference as the close rallied up to 2906.00. No traction was gained, and no new “unfinished business” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Closed US markets and no news from Asia on Sunday night (having no audience for its news) left Europe’s opens more influential. Until then, price had ranged flat-to-lower to 2903.00. But a surge at Europe’s opens tested 2910.00 and eventually extended up to 2912.50. All of which was retraced to attack 2910.00 into Monday’s Globex close. Monday night’s Globex open has been a round-trip — first, testing Friday’s low down to 2902.00 and bouncing again to test 2912.00, then returning back down to Friday’s lows. Typical 3-day holiday weekend stuff, until getting aggressive, now sliding sharply to 2892.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
REMINDER: I’m traveling this week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour… The week was likely to begin with a struggle between an attraction below, and unfinished business above at 2918.00. Two rally attempts Sunday and Monday nights stopped 6 points short of 2918.00, which suggests two things — that potential for a deeper pullback remains alive, and that eventually resuming the rally should probe even higher. So, that deeper pullback is underway if Tuesday’s open doesn’t hold Friday and Monday night’s 2901.75-2902.75 lows. That’s compared to Friday’s 2901.00 cash session closing equivalent. Similarly, almost anything holding above Friday’s 2906.00 futures close should be bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2904.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2897.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-down signal.