The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2909.00 had ultimately extended to exit the bias window at fresh session lows down to 2904.00. The afternoon’s 2911.00 bias-up signal triggered, but extending to its 2918.00 was prevented by an afternoon headline that triggered a plunge to 2895.50, closing at 2902.00. Closing under 2909.00 failed to confirm higher trend objectives that were signaled Wednesday, and afternoon sellers gained traction for their effort. But new unfinished business above at 2918.00 suggests the dip will be recovered.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing through midnight touched the morning’s 2904.00 low, and greeted Europe’s opens unchanged at yesterday’s 2902.00 close. Collapsing 5 points was retraced back up to 2902.00, but only to 2902.00, and has since extended to attack yesterday’s 2895.50 low to within 1 tick.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thinning volume ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend has two contradictory consequences. While the market is robbed of natural volatility, it is also vulnerable to knee-jerk reactions triggered by artificial catalysts. Yesterday morning’s range around its gap down exemplifies the non-volatility, and the afternoon’s headline plunge reflects the vulnerability. But not all headlines get a reaction, and even while overnight weakness is attributed to continued overnight weakness among emerging markets, yesterday’s low still holds. That doesn’t prevent extending down further this morning, as already suggested by yesterday afternoon’s traction, with unfinished business below at 2892.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2897.50 would be likely to trigger the 2898.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open eventually surged, and extended 14 points into the morning’s high. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. So, what else is new. It was the fourth consecutive morning trending and the fifth consecutive afternoon range. The afternoon’s momentary fresh highs was a difference, so perhaps the pattern will soon be replaced. Meanwhile, the session closed  above 2909.00 to put into play higher objectives of 2925.50 and potentially also 2930.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s attempt to turn down had instead become the usual afternoon range. Its potential to 2908.00-2909.00 is nevertheless being tested overnight, down to 2907.00. The move isn’t substantial compared to yesterday’s 2915.00 close, but the trip there has been relentless. That is, notwithstanding the reaction to a favorable trade war headline that just blipped-up to 2911.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
testing this morning’s bias-down signal only overnight wouldn’t have a specific upside reward. And repeating the test post-open could still trigger bias-down. Which is entirely possible, and possible to extend down to 2892.25, 2884.50 or even 2880.25, despite Wednesday having been the last day to reverse the trend down ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend. Yesterday’s surge created even more room to expend selling pressure without it yet reversing the trend down, and there was already room. Regardless of its direction, keep in mind that mornings have been trending. There’s no requirement to repeat that behavior, but be careful stepping in front of a trending attempt before it tests resistance above or support below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2911.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2909.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2906.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2803.00 was already retracing the 2906.25 pre-open high, which was a “new Globex trend extreme.” The balance of the morning trended down to 2894.25, then ranged sideways back up to 2901.00 through the close. It was the third consecutive morning to trend through the bias window’s 11:30-noon exit. And it was the fourth consecutive afternoon to range sideways, gaining no traction. The morning’s 2892.25 bias objective is “unfinished business” below.

Overnight action’s new info…
Upon further thought? Tuesday afternoon’s range immediately broke higher, reaching 2905.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly there started breaking lower into Europe’s opens, back to unchanged at 2899.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The 2906.25 new Globex trend extreme requires an eventual intraday retest. So does the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2903.00 opening print, being above all prior highs. Their retest is likely to extend up to 2909.00. Their retests seemed to be underway last night, until the initial overnight rally was retraced back down to its origin. But not reversed… not, yet. Any dipping ahead of holiday bullishness should be completed today or early tomorrow. Unfinished business below at 2892.25 could be tested down to 2884.50 or 2880.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2901.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2902.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2893.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2888.50 is above all prior highs, and will want to be retested from below if the trend tries to reverse down. Its 2898.00 cash session close already fulfills for an eventual higher close as required by having made a new trend high close on a Friday. Monday trended up to close above the morning’s 2897.00 high, but under the 2899.25 noon hour high. The session high was within 3 ticks of the next higher objective at 2900.00. No traction was gained for the effort, since the bias window exit and final hour’s entry were under their prior timing window’s highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately began probing yesterday’s high. Hesitation at 2901.00 soon resolved up to attack 2904.00. Already dipping back to 2901.00 by midnight extended down to test yesterday’s cash session close by 2 ticks at 2897.50. Now a bounce is probing back above yesterday’s highs, and trying to recover 2901.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not gaining traction for yesterday’s rally isn’t necessarily bearish. It means that its sponsorship’s buying pressure was fulfilled. This is also measurable by having met and held the next higher objective within 3 ticks of the 2900.00 doubly-renewed bias-up target. Resuming the trend Tuesday morning isn’t likely without gapping up above Monday’s highs — which is currently indicated. A concern about the trend’s durability is now its impatience in probing a round number — 2900.00 ES, and 26,000 Dow — instead of expressing restrained optimism. Not gaining traction yesterday and holding a test of its next higher objective make the NEXT higher objective at 2909.00 extra vulnerable to reversing down. Meanwhile, having probed yesterday’s high overnight and then reversing to the earlier overnight lows at 2898.50, exiting the open any lower would reverse momentum down for at least the morning — and help to relieve excess optimism.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2896.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2900.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2901.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Already firming 8 points into Friday’s 2856.00 open was extended up to 2877.00 by noon. That was 3 points back above the prior week’s highs, whose test defined the balance of the session. A dip to 2871.00 into the afternoon bias timing window was recovered only enough to hover 1 point pessimistically short of touching the morning’s highs. Exiting the afternoon bias window entering the final hour within the prior timing window’s range failed to gain traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged immediately 4 points up to 2881.00. Higher highs were soon testing 2883.00. It was probed by 5 ticks into midnight, basically ranging flat-to-higher from 2881.25 to 2884.75 .

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The next higher objective at 2883.00 — which is also this morning’s bias-up target — was thoroughly tested overnight. Another new intraday high was all but required by Friday afternoon’s ranging, whether immediate, or as the recovery from gapping down under its 2871.00 low.. Another new high close is still possible, if not also required. But the overnight new highs don’t make an intraday high or new high close any more assured — not yet, not until coming to within 60-90 minutes of the open. The overnight range’s characteristics that are similar to Friday afternoon make it similarly vulnerable to greeting the open either above or below its 2881.00-2885.00 range.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2880.50 would b elikely at least to trigger the 2778.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2887.75 would be likely to exceed the 2883.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2892.25 and potentially 2900.00.