The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s relentless decline had tested the next lower objective under 2745.00 at 2735.00 by 2 points. Retesting it after the opening 15 minutes of volatility prevented it from offering support. The next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 was also tested too late, as the morning bias environment was lapsing. And the next lower objectives at 2711.50 and 2706.00 were probed in time to renew the afternoon bias-down signal. Testing the last objective at 2701.50 down to 2697.00-2700.00 was rejected on a timely basis this time, recovering into the final hour. Closing back above 2706.00 and 2711.50 put into play 2726.00-2727.00 which was attacked through the close up to 2723.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wide-ranging as it has been, the market has only hovered above yesterday’s late highs. The 2716.25 cash session close was retraced before the late rally resumed. Eventually extending up to 2728.50 ahead of Europe’s opens, also fulfilled the 2726.00-2727.00 objective. Its reaction fell back to 2716.25. That might be an obligatory low, which would make its current reaction an obligatory bounce — a big one, now entirely retraced up to 2728.50.

If, then…
Yesterday’s lows formed a credible bottom, but it can’t afford much hesitation before being productive. The pattern’s minimum objective is already fulfilled, and that is under any prior high whose recovery would signal the trend reversing up. Probing higher overnight does conserve buying pressure, but only temporarily. And still being near recent lows makes it more difficult to absorb another downdraft, so extending the rally without delay would be optimal. Otherwise, the nearest sell signal could be back under 2711.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2726.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2723.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
No WedEX had triggered ahead of Friday’s expiration so no bias was detected. But there was plenty of ranging. The open was greeted at 2756.00, having bounced overnight from retesting the 2745.00 area to attack 2761.00. Extending higher throughout the morning bias environment reached 2766.00, the session high. Trending back down throughout the afternoon bias environment tested 2754.00, the session low. The balance of the session retraced the high-to-low by 61.8% up to 2762.00. Recovering 2758.00 through the close could have been bullish, but the final 2 minutes plunged 9 points to 2753.00. Its reaction only touched 2758.00, as if to rub it in.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night has been under pressure since the open. Dipping immediately to 2751.00 was retraced to 2756.00, which is still resistance from Friday’s open. The drop soon extended, dipping quickly to 2746.00. Hovering optimistically short of the already tested and retested 2745.00 area, for awhile, eventually extended. Seven hours of narrow ranging finally broke lower. A last-gasp up to what is this morning’s 2750.00 bias-down signal was reversed down sharply to 2733.00 in 30 minutes. Its 61.8% retracement up to 2743.50 is now hovering above what is this morning’s 2740.00 bias-down target.

If, then…
The 2-1/2 days since Wednesday afternoon had been contained within a range. Probes of fresh lows were retraced. That is accumulative behavior, but not quite an accumulative pattern without a trigger. An intraday drop could have tested “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area and still been capable of recovering, perhaps even to trigger a reversal. Recovering an overnight drop under the range is substantially more difficult. There’s more time to get it done, but that also means a pessimistic tone will have been established early. That said, trending relentlessly overnight — especially into Monday’s open — can be reversed credibly, if immediately. And that’s still possible, not because there’s still time to get it done, but because that’s the potential of testing “lower prior highs.” Also, lacking WedEX bias could help attract price back into riday’s range. Otherwise, exiting the open without either trending up, or expending the last bit of selling pressure, would be vulnerable to retesting overnight lows, at least.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2745.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2735.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2740.00 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s break under 2758.00 barely tried to recover that afternoon. Thursday morning was resisted by it, long enough for a late-morning surge to be doomed to failure. Perhaps the afternoon’s no-bias environment intended to try again, or to resolve in a rally. We won’t know, because a headline surprise triggered a drop under the 2755.00 bias-down signal that attacked the 2745.00 overnight low. It was retraced entirely into the close. Applying that 9-10 points of buying pressure at the bias environment exit could have recovered 2758.00, and helped to end the pullback. “Unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2767.25 overbought RSIs could have attracted price even higher. Ending back above Wednesday’s 2750.00 lows after probing lower may be the beginning stages of  a new accumulative pattern, or else chipping away at support — the pattern isn’t yet well enough developed either way. Whichever, it is much closer to a resolution.

Overnight action’s new info…
The momentum of yesterday’s late recovery extended slightly higher into the Globex open. Like the prior Globex session’s initial firming, it touched 2759.50 — 1 tick short of what is happens to be morning’s bias-up signal — before its first reaction down. Like yesterday’s session prior to its headline surprise, Wednesday’s 2750.00 lows held as support, touching what happens to be this morning’s 2750.25 bias-down signal. The balance of the night has ranged choppily back up to 2758.00.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2745.75 low touched last Thursday’s “lower prior highs,” albeit several ticks short of actually filling its gap which is preferable. Recovering back above prior lows is the basis for an accumulative pattern. A second such test is possible, but not a third test before actually recovering some resistance to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, a second test of support could probe deeper than the first before recovering, or simply not recover and become a new downleg. That dip’s next lower support is in the 2736.00 area. And its test becomes likelier — regardless of its resolution — if this morning isn’t already rallying. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, so early trending should be very productive.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2762.00 would be likely to trigger the 2759.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Bouncing overnight had been consolidating for hours around the morning’s 2781.50 bias-up signal. The open didn’t trigger it, requiring the offsetting test of its 2766.00 bias-down signal. Its break into the noon hour soon tested 2750.00, which held another two tests to define the afternoon’s low. An interim bounce to 2767.00 failed to exploit the opportunity to recover 2758.00, let alone 2770.00, which could have signaled this week’s pullback has ended.

Overnight action’s new info…
Two uplegs were interrupted by a drop to fresh lows. The second upleg is hovering around the first upleg’s highs, on the verge of losing patience with not yet breaking higher. Globex began by firming up to what is this morning’s 2759.50 bias-up signal. Almost immediately upon touching its resistance, price collapsed 14 points to probe 3 points under yesterday’s low to 2745.00. That’s the gap from last Thursday’s close, and its support soon reacted up 17 points to test 2762.00. All of that had developed before midnight. Since then, ranging sideways has been supported by yesterday’s 2754.00 close, which is now being retested.

If, then…
Wednesday’s lows probed into the gap between last Thursday’s 2745.00 close and Friday’s 2757.00-2759.00 gap up. Gaps are dense areas of support (or resistance) until chipped away, so it’s interesting that the reactions from the gap were relatively shallow. And it will be surprising if Thursday’s open doesn’t resolve the gap’s test immediately one way or the other. Breaking higher must do more than just recover 2758.00 to even begin reversing yesterday’s close under it — triggering bias-up, if not also threatening the bias-up target, would be more in-line with a morning intending to rally. Otherwise, the next objective below is essentially “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2760.00 would be likely to trigger the 2759.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2753.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s session was similar to Monday, until it wasn’t. Tuesday’s open had been preceded by a 12-point spike upon the CPI report, attacking Sunday night’s 2505.00 high. A post-open rally probed Sunday and Monday’s highs up to 2807.00. Like Monday, bias-up triggered but it wasn’t renewed above its 2802.00 bias-up target. And like Monday, the balance of the morning trended down under its bias-up signal, during a bias-up environment. Unlike Monday, the afternoon trended down, too, ultimately testing 2770.00 down to 2762.50. A late 11-point bounce was probing above 2770.00 into the close. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce had seemed tenuous before it even began. It was already retracing to 2770.00 into the close. the Globex open immediately retraced back down to Tuesday’s 2762.50 low. Bouncing back up to 2770.00 resolved back down to 2762.50 again. The next bounce to 2770.00 was more reserved, which has been rewarded by rallying up to 2782.00-2783.00. Consolidating there for 3 hours around what is this morning’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has yet to resolve either way.

If, then…
Last night’s bounce isn’t yet attacking Tuesday afternoon’s 2788.50 bias environment high to try forming a “session-long rally setup,” but pre-open econ reports could get it there. That’s not necessary to simply rally. The minimum upside reward is to retest Tuesday morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal, if not also its Double Top with Monday’s high, and potentially resuming the prevailing trend that is targeting at least 2818.00… Meanwhile, a deeper dip to 2758.00 is still possible, and possible to recover from intraday. Gapping up as is currently indicated would allow room to expend selling pressure before it can gain traction. But that’s probably the only backing-and-filling this pullback can tolerate without reflecting a more bearish expiration sentiment.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2785.50 would be likely to trigger the 2781.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2777.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.