The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night had initially probed under the intraday low, testing support at 2792.00. Reversing up to 2806.00 was retraced 10 points down to 2796.00 before Friday’s open. That’s a lot of volatility. Friday’s expiration open continued the volatility by surging to 2808.00 and then swinging a couple of times down to 2801.00 and lower. Then, as is typical of Friday afternoons, volatility disappeared through the noon hour and most of the bias environment. But the balance of the session resumed the rally to new highs up to 2815.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
We discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review that buyers would all but disappear ahead of Monday’s open. Nervous retail sellers are likely to flood Monday’s open in their first opportunity to react to the government shutdown. Sunday night’s open gapped down to what is this morning’s 2803.75 bias-down signal, and extended immediately to 2802.00. Immediately, but also briefly, bouncing almost as quickly back up to 2809.00 and later briefly 2810.50. Eventually dipping back down to 2806.00 has reacted up again.

If, then…
The open is likely to downtick from the retail crowd’s selling pressure. Its arrival is obvious, so the question is whether it’s quickly absorbed, or extended. Extending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, would get every benefit of the doubt for extending into the noon hour as if the bearish WedEX were influential. Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence wasn’t obvious, if it existed at all. The signal did not invert, and may as well be considered invalidated — except that it still provides a template for trending down throughout Monday morning. Later, the new trend extreme close on a Friday now requires another eventual new trend extreme close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2805.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2809.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2812.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s session added to the week’s collection of multiple personalities. The pattern was already forming Tuesday, which had gapped up sharply to new highs and plunged sharply intraday. All of which Wednesday’s session-long rally had retraced into its final hour. Naturally, Thursday would be vulnerable to digesting the volatility, ranging choppily through the close. A flat-to-lower sentiment was inspired at first by not gapping up, and reinforced by the relentless series of dueling headlines ahead of a possible government shutdown. Price action was sloppy, but otherwise behaved appropriately at relevant levels during relevant windows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Intraday sentiment remained unchanged initially. Thursday night’s low fulfilled the potential down to Wednesdays “lower prior highs” at 2792-2793, which Thursday morning’s no-bias trending had barely attacked to within 1-2 points. Firming into Europe’s opens quickly became a rally that is attacking yesterdays highs to within 2 points at 2806.00.

If, then…
Although not required, Thursday’s flat-to-lower choppiness did not affect the potential for a probe of new highs. Last night’s probe under intraday lows and then its significant recovery make a probe of new highs even likelier. Actually requiring new highs still wouldn’t diminish the vulnerability of rejecting new highs intraday and trending down into the close. The afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence doesn’t impede new highs during the morning, but should erase them by the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2807.50 would be likely to trigger the 2805.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2801.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The second act to Tuesday’s 39-point plunge was Wednesday’s 13-point drop into and out of the open. But they didn’t prevent testing the morning’s 2794.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. It  didn’t trigger, but that didn’t rallying anyway. And rallying, through the morning and afternoon. Tuesday’s 2800.75 open was retested and Tuesday’s high was pierced by 1 point up to 2809.50. Reacting down into the close was the first pullback since the open, and it still fulfilled the only other unfinished business above of a new trend extreme close. Passively bearish WedEX triggered, and the morning’s no-bias trending left unfinished business below at 2772.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging has neither resumed yesterday’s rally, nor rejected it. Wednesday’s late reaction down was retraced to test and retest what is this morning’s 2807.50 bias-up signal. Fresh lows tested and retested 2800.00, but now 2807.50 is being tested again.

If, then…
Was yesterday’s rally all noise? It was an “inside day” that covered no new ground. Except for its brief, highest point, the entire session unfolded within Tuesday’s range. Attractions above were neutralized without putting into play higher objectives. Only the new trend high close is suspicious since it was under prior intraday highs, but that can be completed by probing fresh highs today — regardless of being maintained through the close. One of the three econ reports scheduled at 8:30 could trigger a surge that gaps up, which would alter yesterday’s WedEX signal. Without already extending yesterday’s late reaction down, fresh highs are likely, and they’re increasingly vulnerable to reacting down even more deeply.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2808.50 would be likely to trigger the 2707.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2803.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The holiday weekend’s 15-17 point  rally to 2803.50 had cooled off enough to attract aggressive retail sponsorship through Tuesday’s 2801.00 open. Surging to 2808.50 satisfied that. It also stretched the rubber band to snap back down into the morning’s bias environment. Being a doubly-renewed bias-up didn’t prevent trending down to test the morning’s 2792.25 bias-up signal as support. The downtrending persisted through the afternoon which plunged further down to 2769.50 —  down 39 points from high to low. Probing under Friday’s 2785.00 “lower prior highs” was maintained through the close to gain traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon had ended ranging between 2777.75 and 2783.75. Flat-to-higher ranging overnight chipped away at 2783.75, surging somewhat into Europe’s opens, Extending to 2793.00 is now touching yesterday afternoon’s bias environment high.

If, then…
“Unfinished business above” at Monday’s 2801.00 open should be retested before any durable decline. A new trend high close is still outstanding. The overnight rally indicates a gap up which is this morning’s only opportunity to rally, but the gap must be maintained through the open. Reversing the gap up could still extend down to retest oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2769.25 low, with potential to lower prior highs at  2760.00 and 2750.00. This being expiration week, WedEX will trigger at the close and be predictive of bias into and out of the weekend. Or, will it? Among the signal’s bells & whistles, the most relevant is a test of a prior high or low — which is not at all assured today.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2789.00 would be likely to trigger the 2787.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2794.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow ranging around the 2768.50 cash session close had finally broken out rally nearly 7 points, attacking 2777.00. It was retraced entirely before the open, touching the  2766.00 overnight low. But no lower, which the 3-day holiday weekend began squeezing to attack 2786.00 at the morning’s high. Ranging through the afternoon gradually extended to a new trend extreme close on a Friday at 2786.50, and futures continued firming up to 2790.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up another 5 points to 2795.00. It was never touched again while ranging narrowly down to 2791.00 into the holiday session’s early close. The narrow range initially persisted last night until midnight’s fresh highs which have extended to 2803.50. Now reacting down more than 4 points is only attacking this morning’s 2798.25 bias-up target as support. Regardless, this is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest.

If, then…
In addition to requiring an eventual intraday retest of last night’s high, Friday’s new trend extreme close requires at least another eventual higher trend extreme close. Gapping up above all prior highs would also require eventually retesting the opening print from below. These setups have no timing element, so an immediate reversal down would have no requirement to recover soon. Reversing down post-open would have early support at “lower prior highs” from Sunday night’s ranging, and then potentially back into Friday’s range. Already breaking under Monday night’s 2791.00 low through the open would not ensure holding a test of Friday’s lower prior highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2801.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2798.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2804.50. Exiting the open above 2796.75 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up at 10:15.
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