The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Immediately rejecting Wednesday’s inability to recover positive territory was the only path higher Thursday. Gapping up above the morning’s 2752.00 bias-up signal did that. Its likely reward was to probe Tuesday’s 2760.00 high. The 2757.50 bias-up target was probed but not exceeded for long enough to renew the bias-up signal. So the noon hour finally resumed the rally and fulfilled the afternoon’s 2765.25 bias-up target. The cash session closed equated to 2768.50 and futures extended another 6 ticks higher through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex initially dipped to form a narrowing range around yesterday’s 2768.50 cash session close through midnight. Then firming to fresh highs suddenly surged at Europe’s opens to new highs at 2776.00. The surge was brief, but has been maintained as price ranges around 2776.00.

If, then…
The overnight high’s surge happens to be ranging around this morning’s bias-up target. Gapping up yesterday was the only path higher out of Wednesday’s quicksand, but gapping up today isn’t necessary to extend the rally. None of which makes gapping up bearish, or prevents a reaction down from recovering. But since Friday Factors play uniquely on gaps because of the impending weekend illiquidity. The opening 15 minutes disposition of the gap is often very predictive to the balance of the session. So, regardless of the three-day holiday weekend’s bullish influence, exiting the open back under a relevant support could target another test of Friday’s close. Similarly, because of the three-day holiday weekend’s bullish influence, a firmer open could gravitate higher into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2771.75 would be likely to trigger the 2770.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2768.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday time for Friday’s Morning Market to or we’ve got another rally overnight why not interesting set up here there’s maybe one minute to discuss it because it comes down to this up or down we had to go up or down likely that the market just fluctuates sideways nearly even chop Ali around the open Notice what happened I just want to point out the this as a template from Tuesday this is a new high Gap up to a new high on Tuesday fluctuated largely positivewhere liquidity declines Etc Trend turns are less likely things can get heated to the upside more so very quickly so if they Mark it’s going to reverse down today it’s going to need to do so pretty quickly through the open if it extends hired it’s just going to create more room to absorb being productivepretty resistant Euro up sharply Euro has no unfinished business above and it’s gapping up sharply I know unfinished business above but it confirmed breakout below this is not often that this happens it’s not usual but it’s not abnormal there’s a confirm breakout Mondays break confirmed Tuesday under a multi-session range the target of this rally was already met and this is coming back to New Year’s coming out of the New Year’s weekend retested and that overnight surging through all those prior highs to new highs this is a running correction and what do we know about writing correctionCrackdown I think it was on six Banks now at this very recent search he is coming close to the flavor Tracy mat it’s been a lot longer than it normally is

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s drop had been retraced somewhat ahead of Wednesday’s open. A blip-up to 2746.75 quickly collapsed to probe the overnight low by 3 ticks down to 2736.50. All of which was recovered as the morning’s bias environment was entered. Firming steadily into the afternoon’s bias environment probed the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2750.75 close where Nafta withdrawal headlines triggered another dip to 2744.00. An eventual bounce retraced 61.8% of the dip into the cash session close, still in negative territory.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initial narrow ranging under Wednesday’s late high was suddenly interrupted by a 5-point surge to 2754.50. A 7-point dip retraced it, and then some to test 2748.00. But that was recovered as quickly back up to 2754.50 by midnight, where price has hovered into and out of Europe’s opens. Only now is the narrow range breaking, with a probe to fresh highs at 2756.50.

If, then…
Yesterday’s intraday rally had stopped short of recovering positive territory. Twice. And the afternoon dip had exited the bias environment lower, without recovering, either. Extending yesterday’s rally without delay all but requires gapping up above relevant levels from Tuesday afternoon, which is currently indicated. Only now is overnight action repeating the aggression it had showed much earlier. That’s late enough to still be considered restrained optimism, and not so late to be considered weak-handed. Regardless, it must be maintained through the open to influence intraday action targeting a retets of Tuesday’s highs up to 2765.25, as its rejection would still target 2730.75.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.50 would be likely to trigger the 2752.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday but time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her and I’m not really able to classify this as a rally overnight and that may be the most bullish thing about it because otherwise having extended hire its optimism is restrained no it’s just back out for a moment from this very recent surge this surge that is matching the earlier search Globex initially narrow flat and then surged and suddenly stopped on a similarity they are but which is considerably back to all the way back up to hovering here and then also optimistically for not extending higher above Wednesday’s recovery itselfWednesdaystrong headed Breakout not too close to the or not too early to consider the overnight is having already expended all buying pressure just right up to a point still needs to be maintained for the open to extend iron today 12/8various pattern you can really see an inverted Head and Shoulders on a pull back will try and go for me here not bearish in the sense of distributive but didn’t really get a lot of momentum going so looking for at least a fresh High not necessarily anything more much more than that quite the opposite is the pound dipping more deeply I don’t have a cell signal at work on the pound this is pretty much just noise coming back down to lower eyes having left unfinished business the spike was or at least being absorbed and here is the low is being tested Euro as its

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Waiting until very near Tuesday’s open before finally breaking above Monday’s overnight ranging is usually an unsustainable setup. So its surge to 2753.50 was retraced back down to “lower prior highs” at 2748.00. But not any lower, and the bias environment eventually extended to probe its 2757.50 bias-up target by 1 point. Being late didn’t prevent probing higher later, either, as the afternoon bias environment touched 2760.00 during a very weakly signaled bias-up. The bias environment’s probe wasn’t maintained through its exit, and the last half-hour returned to the 2751.00 opening print.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late slide was never retraced or corrected. Fluctuating around it in a 3-point range broke lower into and out of Europe’s opens to test what is this morning’s 2745.00 bias-down target. Consolidating there has since broken sharply lower to 2737.00 on headlines that China is easing its US Treasury purchases. Presumably, this refers to Treasury debt obligations, and not to the US Treasury itself, which we have on good authority Russia already owns by proxy. Anyway, a bounce to 2744.00 is now reacting back down at least 3 points.

If, then…
I noted in yesterday’s Market Wrap that similar opening and closing levels at a new extreme often identify that extreme as being durable. Yesterday’s 2751.00 open was retraced into the close, which overnight action had ranged around before breaking lower. There wasn’t any further distributive action, but the reversal is that much more credible. So, lower lows are likely before any bottoming attempt would be credible for holding, let alone for recovering. Still being so young, the reaction down could be rendered moot by opening back in positive territory above 2751.00. Otherwise, extending the young decline through the morning could produce aggressive bounces along the way down — which I would be more interested in selling than buying.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] (Note: The bias-down target was misreported last night. It is 2745.00) Exiting the open under 2747.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2742.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2745.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal — its renewed target is essentially the 2739.75 area, whose break through 10:15 would next target 2730.75.

Phonetic dictation…
well good morning it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays Morning Market to her and there’s something you don’t see every year I haven’t seen it this year at least that’s a pretty big reaction down through a concerted timing window substantial drawdown to dance to at least downtrend happens to be a basement not very complete so I’m expecting more unless one thing happens only one thing first of all it’s point out how we got here and just to reiterate every single day the open already in Decline so at least this is qualifying yesterday so near the open that sponsorship tends to be weak handed or at least in need of reinforcements so it was doubly important to find out how coming back for those reinforcementsit is 2745 which turns out to bid influential and will be influential if it’s recovered not as influential as if 2750 is recovered or 51 yesterday’s open and basically closing levels and more so if there’s since Rock camping up having proved under yesterday’s range overnight there is only one other bullish set up a voice signal for this morning’s open. That we can’t rally without a bow that overnight probe to the overnight by recovering before the open to Gap or not the Gap at the open back above yesterday’s was the mornings Lowe’s preferably back in positive territory all together that would isolate this overnight drop everything to get to the market just whateversoalright fast forward so 3725 is being tested here overnight so far as the low notice anything about previous price action that has developed there it is been basically doing this window after the afternoon bias environment Friday afternoons by its environment had lapsed and then Monday morning during the open during the otherwise your relevant open don’t make anything of the different sizes in these rectangles are drone free hand to the point being that this is a recovery if it does launch recovery not just back above the bias down Target but above the bias down signal and back into positive territory gold and silverabove the weeks prior highs if gold break higher is rejected early then we’ll give it a benefit of the doubt that perhaps the rubber band snapping back down that it was waiting for that news that it was held up artificially but without reacting down through the morning and gold that’s the line in the stand silver as well although it’s not performing as bullishly overnight optimistically has goldinsteadall right Looney trying to hold this 80 3738 area to produce a reaction up a test of the spiked High which is often tested I can’t really get a short off while waiting for that until that happens the pound bouncing again just widespread bouncing I noticed that the Gap backup to Monday’s close is being attacked neutralized that and modest upside Potential from there if any and the Aussie bouncing 15300 and it’s been straight down since then two more fresh Lowe’s while it is bouncing seems to be bouncing on the news or at least ultimately the other the real premise that we have is at or the other pretty much to a new I what is a day in crypto anyway

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s opening surge to 2747.75 was retraced relentlessly down to 2736.25 before Monday’s open, probing under Friday’s 2742.00 close. Bouncing into the open would have recovered 2742.50 to reject the overnight slide, but it was barely attacked. Breaking under 2739.00 would have extended the decline, but it held two tests. Firming into the bias environment’s exit resumed the rally back up to the overnight high, which held through the close. Friday’s requirement for a new trend high close was fulfilled, while the afternoon’s 2750.25 bias-up target was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Still hovering narrowly around Sunday night’s 2747.75 high, reacting to news from China finally triggered a dip to attack 2742.50. That was the overnight low, and it was quickly reversed into a recovery to retest Sunday night and Monday afternoon’s highs. Fresh highs at 2749.00 have so far held.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally was reaction, and not action. In other words, it was a product of the overnight and morning’s reversal attempt having failed. Closing above the overnight highs would have reflected new sponsorship. Last night’s action is a shallower version of the same pattern, absorbing a post-open dip only to find significant resistance at the prior high. None of which prevents extending the rally today, even through the close. It’s more of a requirement that not extending the rally through today’s close may prevent it from extending. Meanwhile, probing fresh highs intraday would be vulnerable to another post-open dip, and potentially a deeper correction or reversal of the rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2750.25 would be likely to trigger the 2749.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2745.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to order this is a regularly linked week 5 days so Wednesday is going to be pretty interesting but for now one thing that is interesting is we found some resistance you don’t need opening night attacking 4827 48 it’s recovery intraday on Monday being limited to a test of the opening surge let’s go on keep going it 2748 last night’s open ranging continuing the fluctuation Arrow fluctuation of Monday afternoon around 2748 and then another recovery after note after an overnight dip on some news from China recovery detest 2748 we see a different picture from open to close or comparing open to close barely on Thursday but extending higherdid they spell any possibility that it might be out there a retest of it might be unfinished no unfinished business about so if there is a reaction down it does have a lot of leeway it would have a lot of leeway in that residence here’s the last up late just measured from the upper end of resistance to the consolidation that had developed into the end of the year yeah we can get just as a aggressive speculative impatient pull back down to 2727 2727 75 that’s not minor and it could happen in a fairly quick or Fell Swoop so just keep that in mind to still maintainall theside days in both does relieve some of the pressure of a up down cuestionario but it also accelerates the timing for a resolution to the up-down crash scenario from this inside day today is either going to be nearly ranged or a hold support and therefore avoid the up-down crash in area resolution or resolving the resolving the not likely but the downside does remain vulnerable I want to see a little bit deeper on copper what’s the difference not that it should take so long but I mean said that the overnight that was basicallylast weekend since its open and tried to resume the decline with the likelihood being for a retest of the Lowe’s is trying to avoid that again bouncing a little bit overnight search spiking up but

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying again overnight greeted Friday’s Employment Situation report at new highs attacking the morning’s 2733.00 bias-up target. Its knee-jerk reactions, both up and down between 2730-2735, greeted the open where the report was greeted. It was still a gap up, but it was retraced back down under Thursday’s “lower prior highs” to 2726.50 long enough to hold the 2727.75 bias-up signal as support. The balance of the morning recovered to touch the pre-open high. And when the afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing, the balance of the session trended up to a new high at 2743.25. The cash session and futures closes were closely centered around 2742.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was of one mind, and the balance of the night has been quite different. Spiking up 6 points immediately attacked 2648.00. And that was the end of any upside, no complexity that might otherwise require intraday retest. Ranging flat-to-lower met stronger selling pressure at Europe’s opens that triggered a 4-point drop to unchanged. Unchanged supported a choppy range that is now probing into negative territory down to 2737.75.

If, then…
Friday’s new trend extreme close requires at least another eventual higher close, regardless of any interim price action. Sunday night’s high doesn’t satisfy that requirement. And the requirement need not be fulfilled today. Meanwhile, the week is starting off quite differently than did the first week — let alone, each of the first week’s four sessions, which maintained overnight rallies. Exiting the open in negative territory after having probed above Friday’s highs could marginalize sellers for the day. Exiting the open under Friday’s last relative low — which is now being tested at 2739.00 — could reverse momentum down for at least the morning. So, already probing negative territory, exiting the open back above Friday’s high would make the overnight high’s retest today likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2742.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2743.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2745.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it’s well welcome back it is Monday here’s something we haven’t done in a while a Monday market tour it is the first full week of the year 5 days a week first nine holiday week no almost we have a holiday next week which is why there is no no Saturday review this coming weekend so another one Monday to her but anyway as for last night I started someone for trading days of the year which themselves all open to end not so aggressively though as last night’s rally begin maybe a littlethere’s levels can’t hold through the open again after having proved the overnight or after having probed the prior sessions High overnight that tends to reverse momentum down so quite a different possibility for today then the last four days of course by the same token there’s a bearish set up every single element except for greeting reopen under Friday’s highs if they open is greeted under Friday’s highs under the overnight low and yet the open well as or will likely be is bullish as it could have been bearish and it could have been very bearish3 non consecutive negative closes that doesn’t always resolve in an up-or-down crash but the the alternative the last Light clear but occasional alternative is just arrange nearly sideways as that overbought situation is just neutralized that’s going to be the challenge here and silver as well a little lower but still in its range and it’s got some room or at least a little weaker flat to lowerbeforebarely been attacked on Friday and overnight that attraction about being the Gap back to Tuesday’s close in the Looney just gonna run away here not trending to a new I close but spikes or off and retested so that’s that’s not a pattern I would fade and if there’s any kind of pull bag limit it’s 80 card 8040 that if tested would likely reverse back up to at least a fresh High if not refresh eye closed wood top and then the Yen which is

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