The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Closing above 2703.00 Wednesday had put into play 2722-2727. Rallying overnight greeted the open at 2719.00 quickly extended higher. And higher. The higher target was fulfilled as the morning’s bias environment began. Perhaps The balance of the session ranged widely between 2722-2727, not closing beyond either end to trigger a breakout in either direction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Breaking higher hasn’t ended, but it’s starting later and later. Last night’s ranging finally started rallying at Europe’s opens. Wednesday night had resumed rallying before midnight, and Tuesday’s intraday rally barely stopped. Today’s 2733.00 bias-target is now being attacked to within 1 tick as a shallow consolidation resolves up. There is complexity that already makes this a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day.

If, then…
Was yesterday’s late-afternoon’s weakness was caused by anxiousness ahead of the next morning’s Employment Situation report? Europe’s exchanges were closed then, and last night’s rally didn’t start until they had re-opened. So, already extending higher doesn’t reflect local optimism. Restrained optimism ahead of monthly payrolls actually tends to react favorably. Whether reacting well or recovering from a knee-jerk reaction down, trending up through the open could marginalize sellers for the morning and possibly also for the day. But the overnight origin of these new highs suggests it’s not optimism for the report. AND resistance at the bias-up target is already being attacked. So, be equally prepared for the rally’s sponsorship to disappear.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t available ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday morning Market to order quick quick note quick programming note at the top throw Saturday so we have a Saturday review it’s been several weeks because of the holiday weekends but we have a Saturday review this weekend with a Saturday review next weekend I think the next two weekends and then the last week of the month we actually skipping the following weekend back again so get it while you can instructions will be emailed in the morning tomorrow morning this morning we have again overnight and that pretty muchthat all aside I just know that if the open Trends up and if it Trends up after having reacted down need your reaction down if it Trends up just maintaining the overnight rally if the reaction brings in more shorts short-covering just trending up through the open will get every benefit of the dad for being able to extend higher in today after this pattern though just know that if that is not happening the open isn’t trending up if there is at this stageTripoli opposed or at least in the majority of outcomes there are outcomes that work out their issues by consolidating and relieving that big stretch of the rubber band that big stretch of the rubber band that’s either going to snap back down imagine yourself stretching a rubber band between your thumb and index finger with one hand and with the other thumb and index finger of the other hand stretching it back and it’s some point one or the other gives either you’re stretching it back let’s go and then rubber band snaps back so here’s the stretch and then it snaps back back down or the rubber band and you’re stretching it and then your hand goes flying in that direction in I call that the up down crash up down cuz it one way or anothernatural gas we could still have a couple big down days here coming down to 78th and that’s pretty much the limit of the pullback just as a correction because of these ongoing series of gaps up closing higher that’s a lot of strength not that it’s a lot of momentum that requires breaking higher but it creates a context to help absorb absorb a reaction down because there’s nothing there or rainforestbut I wouldn’t I would be surprised if that suddenly stopped Bitcoin this pattern not Barrett as I pointed out a couple days ago that didn’t prevent the dip there’s anything we need to dip was going to be recovered because it was originating from a bullet pattern short of that pattern size that pessimism despite having and we’ll go from there but still looking for 17000 alright

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s rally extended overnight until piercing Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high. Tuesday’s late 2696.00 high held a reaction down that suddenly resolved up at Wednesday’s open. Both bias-up parameters were exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, and the morning peaked at 2708.50. The noon hour’s breakout ultimately triggered the afternoon’s bias-up signal and peaked at its 2714.00 bias-up target. Reacting back down through the close touched the morning’s 2708.50 high. But closing above 2703.00 still put into play the next higher objective at 2722-2727.

Overnight action’s new info…
Other than starting a little later, extending the intraday rally to fresh highs has been identical to Tuesday night’s pattern. Both probed only slightly higher, neither formed a “new Globex trend extreme” yet requiring intraday retest, and both reacted back down down to touch the prior session’s high nearer to the open. one difference now forming is the dip back into yesterday’s range has been recovered back up to its origin, and now fresh highs are testing 2717.00 overnight high.

If, then…
Today’s version of the similar overnight pattern is starting to deviate further from yesterday’s. That difference might greet the open hovering at session highs, or might even develop into a surge. Regardless, a short-entry will be difficult prior to a post-open retest of overnight highs, and then its reversal. But a pre-open shallow dip would still be likelier to recover back to overnight highs. Entering the noon hour back under 2703.00 may be the only path still available to prevent extending to 2722-2727.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2714.00would be unlikely to trigger the 2715.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2709.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2706.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2674.50 had signaled that Friday’s late probe under it was an anomaly. Triggering bias-up — more so, renewing the bias-up signal — essentially signaled that a retest of Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high was in-play. The morning’s 2692.75 renewed bias-up target held through both bias environments and the noon hour in between. Breaking higher into the position-squaring window trended up to touch its 2696.00 target. New intraday highs were avoided, but it was a new high close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trending up relentlessly has very recently pierced Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high by 2 ticks. The upside action has been relentless, but the move hasn’t been substantial and the slope hasn’t been steep So shallow, that its reaction down is now touching yesterday’s late 2696.00 high.

If, then…
Friday’s pre-open high didn’t require any retest. And having formed by a singular probe without complexity, it didn’t require intraday retest. Both are still likelier than not — to fresh highs at the 2700.00 area, if not also 2703.00 — but reversing down prematurely could extend down again. Meanwhile, extending higher than 2703.00 is more difficult because the recent pullback was only a shallow dip which didn’t refuel much. Difficult, but possible if carried away with itself, next targeting 2722.00-2727.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2699.75 would be likely to trigger the 2697.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2693.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[WE’RE USING A BACKUP MEETING ROOM TODAY]

Through the prior close…
Last year’s last day was preceded by an 11-point overnight rally to 2698.25 that probed the 2697.75 prior high. But it didn’t hold, and the open was greeted by a shallower gap up to 2693.75. And even that quickly triggered a sell signal under 2692.25 that extended lower in time to reject both bias-up parameters. An offsetting test of both bias-down parameters was put into play, and the balance of the afternoon trended down more shallowly to attack 2681.00. One more reaction up to 2686.50 was rejected by a collapse into the cash session close down to 2674.50, which futures extended down to 2668.75. All “unfinished business below” was neutralized.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday night’s open gapped up to 2674.50, and extended higher to 2681.75. Trending back down eventually attacked the opening print to within 3 ticks at 2675.25. The trending’s last bounce has developed into a recovery to fresh overnight highs now attacking 2685.00.

If, then…
Gapping down and extending Friday’s late collapse would have been today’s likelier opening scenario, except for the weekend. That’s the least likely resolution when it develops ahead of the weekend. The special circumstances do allow a path higher that essentially treats Friday’s late collapse like an anomaly by gapping up above 2684.25. In fact, last night’s open did gap up above 2684.25. Which is the basis for a setup that can extend to retest Friday’s 2698.25 overnight high. But the open has to exploit the overnight recovery attempt, or else the morning could retest and possibly probe Friday’s late low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2682.25 would be likely to trigger the 2679.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2675.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
Unavailable today.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up held the lower-end of the 2688.00-2692.50 resistance buffer. Gapping up above its upper-end would have been likely to rally, if not the only path to a rally. Holding the lower-end’s test instead reacted down sharply to 2683.50 through the open. An offsetting test of the bias-down signal 2 points lower was left outstanding as the balance of the session fluctuated narrowly at its lows. The balance of the session, until its final minutes surged to attack 2688.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming through the Globex open recovered to 2688.00. Its resistance held until Europe’s opens were approaching. A blip-up to 2689.50 was retraced to test 2688.00, now support, which reversed up sharply to probe above 2692.50 by 3 ticks. Its reaction down probed under 2692.50 by 3 ticks and reversed up sharply, too. Now probing the 2696.25 prior high by 2 points.

If, then…
The names, dates, and places have changed. But, so far, it’s the same story: Overnight rally into resistance. The question is whether it will avoid the same ending of reacting down through the morning. The bullish setup has been the same all week — gap up above prior highs, i.e. the upper-end of 2688.00-2692.50 resistance. Gapping up would have to be maintained through the open, and preferably extended. This applies to any resistance being tested at the open, including the prior high. And new highs remain vulnerable to reversing down again from 2699.75-2700.75 and 2703.00, since the relatively shallow interim dip didn’t refuel buyers much — refueling that could have been done by briefly revisiting the 2681.50, 2679.00 and 2675.50 lower objectives. So, reversing down isn’t any less likely until 2703.00 is recovered through a relevant window.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2694.25 would be likely to also recover the 2692.50 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2690.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2688.00 bias-up signal.

Phonetic dictation…

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