The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Before seasonal holiday bullishness resumes its influence, sellers had a fading opportunity Wednesday to insert a downdraft. Perhaps even to fulfill “unfinished business below” at 2679.00 and 2675.50. Despite triggering the 2688.75 bias-up signal late, and creating “unfinished business above” at its 2693.75 target, a downdraft did begin mid-morning and fell to 2681.50. The position-squaring window popped back up to the afternoon bias environment’s 2685.25 high. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s bias-down signal had triggered, late, and left unfinished business below at its 2679.00 bias-down target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Surging out of Wednesday’s position-squaring window extended to 2686.25 into the futures close. Globex dipped to 2684.00 and then resumed the rally. It has been relentless, albeit shallow, up to 2688.50. That was yesterday’s sell signal that had triggered going into the noon hour, and 1 tick above this morning’s bias-up signal.

If, then…
Yesterday’s position-squaring window bounce originated too late to be strong-handed, and it was only noise since it peaked at the afternoon bias environment’s high. The overnight extension is only noise, so far, for having retraced the last downleg’s sell signal. Wednesday’s downdraft began in time to be credible ahead of the bullish influences, but it doesn’t have unlimited time to fully develop. If sellers can’t prevent the bias-up signal from triggering, then Wednesday’s 2675.50 unfinished business below could be delayed until next year. Bias-up would likely marginalize sellers for the morning, which would be long enough for seasonal bullishness and quarterly portfolio window dressing influences to take over through tomorrow’s early close. The key to one more downdraft is to start it early, which I’ll give every benefit of the doubt if bias-up doesn’t trigger. Just by not gapping up above Wednesday’s highs, fresh lows remain in-play.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2690.50 would be likely to trigger the 2688.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The 3-day holiday weekend ended Monday night. Choppy overnight ranging 2683.50-2689.50 was within Friday afternoon’s range. Tuesday’s first hour was narrower, but still choppy. And then choppiness disappeared, as the balance of the session contracted to a matter of ticks. Flat-to-lower ranging probed a fresh low AFTER the 3:10-3:20 proxy window had closed, indicating its break would be temporary. It was also shallow, piercing the morning’s low by only 3 ticks down to 2684.25 before bouncing back into the range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce back into the range extended to the morning’s 2688.25 upper-end. And gradually through it as flat-to-higher narrow ranging is probing Monday night’s 2689.50 high up to 2690.25.

If, then…
The overnight range is still probing into the 2688.00-2692.50 resistance buffer, whose recovery through a relevant window would target new highs. And whose resistance held keeps in-play the 2679.00 and 2675.50 “unfinished business below.” Gapping up above the buffer is the likeliest path higher — at least, greeting Wednesday’s open above Tuesday’s range to start, which overnight action is trying. A failed attempt could instead have stretched the rubber band to snap back down to fresh lows. That bearish reaction should develop today, if not this morning, while still free from influence by the two 3-day holiday weekends’ seasonally bullish influence. So meanwhile, the shallow overnight bounce is suspicious. But triggering bias-up could marginalize sellers for the balance of the week.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2691.00 would be likely to trigger the 2688.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday the holiday shortened week I’m both ends it is the second day of the week usually this would be the 3rd and the most liquid and Friday is essentially a half day or early close chopping off a couple 3 hours there it’s busy and focused in a different way that gets more prevalent toward the end of the week that is as early as this afternoon and that’s with the year-end transactions more of a focus on if not marked the market then carrying stuff into the end of the quarter end of the year tax considerations etcetera so coming out of the holiday weekend it was a little bit ofso late it would be temporary whether it was deep or shallow was shallow Kimberly call that a rubber band stretch but price did snap back up to the upper end of yesterday’s range to the upper end of Monday night’s range and actually probing that into Thursday night’s range it’s shallow bounce resolving down below at Wednesday’s oversold are a size 2679 and there’s an objectivethe offsetting test in the Bios down trying to get a 26 7550 presumably both of which are inhibiting recovery or rally which at this stage in a narrow extended their Owen range can break decisively in one direction of the other by gapping and when it doesn’t gaps efficiently will instead tend to break falsely and One Direction and then reverse more substantially in the opposite directionthere would be a better chance of that being a false break combined that false break potential with satisfying the attraction in the objective below and that could be a pretty substantial rubber band stretch that snaps back up to new highs and higher otherwise getting a probe of fresh highs going probably requires at leastGood Morning Show extending through the open otherwise that potentially bullish opportunity becomes as beerus as it would have been bullish and stretches the rubber band in the rug directions to snap back down still with no evidence that 2679 2675 50 can’t contain a pullback remember there’s also to book ends to this week to seasonally bullish bookends The 3 Day weekend holiday influence is difficult to find sponsorship let alone counter-trend sponsorship which in this case would be down so that window up coming in the window previous are neither one influential right now opportunitywhich might explain the shallow overnight bounce but won’t explain triggering biocept written by ass up would get every benefit of the doubt maybe some suspicion if the price action merits it but otherwise every benefit of the doubt that sellers would be marginalized through the end of the week which is also to say through the year the outstanding from Two and a half almost 3 months ago formed potentially an island if that’s exploited today by gapping Back Down Under 324 being attacked here overnight we know it would be only temporary gold fulfilledwe don’t have that assurance but there is a pullback rising up trending support down to about 150 150 104 is Touchback above 15116 or back above yesterday’s high when 5125 15126 would be even more bullish than just a test when it’s 2:22 sowas likely at some point 2 I was literally explode higher and what better point of course than resistance so after neutralize me attraction above from two and a half weeks ago and touching 5865 resistance overnight yesterday morning surged considerably not any follow-through here not yet today would be confirmationwe’ll discuss that as we get there this afternoon meanwhile anything in this area is just noise a natural gas which was a little aggressive the most durable bottom possible and did fill the Gap back to Friday’s close fulfilled it yesterday and is extending higher today which is going to create more close above breaks out first as upside attractions that are being fulfilled here overnight so now Iwhich isthat later alright so any questions let me know in the chart room I’ll see you there before the open good luck tonight

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
If seasonal holiday bullishness was influential Friday, then it was by absorbing the open’s dip. Thursday night’s 3-4 point bounce had failed already before Friday’s 2688.00 open. The reaction down into the open persisted through the bias environment exit, attacking 2682.00. Bouncing through the afternoon probed the open’s high by several ticks up to 2689.50, before dropping 3 points into the close. Not a wide intraday range, and never straying very far or for very long off of unchanged, but not rallying.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday afternoon’s range has contained a couple of wide swings since Monday night’s open. Friday’s last-minute dip was immediately retraced, entirely back to Friday’s late 2698.50 high. But no higher, and soon the night’s first dip was attacking Friday’s lows to probe negative territory at 2684.00. Its reaction up has been much shallower, barely attacking 2687.00 before dipping back down into negative territory at 2684.50.

If, then…
“Unfinished business below” at 2679.00 and 2675.50 would still be targeted by trending back down Tuesday. But the window is closing for seasonal bullishness to contain the drop — the sooner they’re tested, the easier to attract sponsorship for a recovery. Another seasonally bullish window of influence opens Wednesday afternoon ahead of Friday’s early close and another holiday weekend. In the interim is a brief window for sellers to influence price down, if they can. The 2688.00-2692.50 resistance range remains influential, and gapping up above it is probably the only path higher. Its minimum reward isn’t much higher, being new highs at 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2688.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2691.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2680.75 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying 10 points from overnight lows had greeted Thursday’s open 2 points above Wednesday afternoon’s high. A session-long rally setup had formed. Similar to Wednesday’s open, the open failed to maintain its gap, and the setup did not complete. But unlike Wednesday, bias-up triggered anyway, and its 2692.50 target was met. The afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-up signal was tested, too, but not triggered. So the incomplete session-long rally setup influenced the balance of the afternoon, which fell 9 points to 2686.50, closing at 2688.00,

Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s slide hasn’t extended any deeper. Quite the opposite, price has rallied relentlessly overnight. Neither steeply nor substantially, and less flat-to-higher than higher-to-flat. The bias-up signal isn’t even being attacked, currently. Nevertheless, the open is indicated higher. Currently… Cryptocurrencies were extremely volatile, to the downside. I review them at the end of the Market Tour recording.

If, then…
Yesterday’s noon hour exit surged decisively through the 2688.00-2692.50 range’s upper-end. But it never attracted reinforcements, as its bias-up signal test held, and the break’s retracement into the bias environment exit was exploited by probing the range’s lower-end into the close. Holding the range’s lower-end is similar to having held yesterday afternoon’s bias-up signal test — extending the move must be done forcefully to avoid reversing direction. Yesterday afternoon reversed instead of extending. If the open isn’t already extending yesterday afternoon’s slide, then the balance of the morning will likely be spent retracing it, or at least trying. Regardless, trending isn’t likely to extend or be rewarded this afternoon. It’s Friday, before a three-day holiday weekend. Not yet trending through the open could range narrowly through the close, while trending through the open could end by noon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2694.25 would be likely to trigger the 2692.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2688.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday time for Friday’s morning market tour reminder at the top there is no Saturday review this weekend for the holiday there’s no Saturday review next weekend either same reason so any side she have to review please go and post them in the chart room during the day we will do a little bit extra on the post Club well on the market wrap two things about that will incorporate some of the into the market wrap or normally that would be truncated because of the Saturday review comingpattern of early bounces early gaps failing or holding be advised that if 90 to 1950 is being tested at the open that’s no Assurance of it actually being recovered the trigger 1975 is the bias up signal holding its test mostly the afternoon alrightdoes suggest pessimism witches boys from a contrarian perspective so I’m not raising the cell signal and natural gas which is reported that could be tested overnight yeah the morning isn’t already rallying then 258 will probably be tested the Euro which came back to test 119 overnight having proved it overnight already before probably get overnight just having tested it yesterday required extending down today or the brake lower would not develop prior to 1:20 well only makes that elevates the immediacy of needing to break lower or else and that or else is defined as one 1965failed ascending triangle that needs to be pretty obvious pretty quickly so today is trying to follow through if that fails to follow through no second consecutive higher close confirming today becomes very bearish finally the Aussie

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
With the window closing before the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness, resuming Tuesday’s drop couldn’t be delayed. And it would have to be aggressive to quickly reverse the 12-13 point overnight rally. Even more so for that already fulfilling the morning’s 2694.50 bias-up target. Extending any higher would have renewed the bias-up signal AND completed a session-long rally. But post-open sponsorship rejected both bias-up parameters, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And failing to complete the session-long rally was as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Plunging 13 points, and then 3 more, probed Tuesday’s lows down to 2679.00. Retesting its oversold RSIs became “unfinished business below,” along with a test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways up to 2688.25, and back down to attack session lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging between 2681.00-2684.00 pierced a fresh low momentarily at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back into the range eventually extended the reversal and to break above the range’s upper-end. Now yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high is being attacked to within 1 point, touching this morning’s 2687.25 bias-up signal.

If, then…
Another session-long rally setup may be forming. After trending down into yesterday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon bias environment’s high could complete the setup. No specific slope would be required, but sellers would be marginalized, ultimately with potential back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00. The setup’s basis isn’t yet fully formed by actually probing above yesterday afternoon’s high, perhaps because of the attractions outstanding below. They could be the cause of not completing the setup, too, if it does fully form. In either case, the attractions below could be met by choppiness around yesterday afternoon’s range, without maintaining a trending attempt in either direction. And we’ll anticipate exactly that — a failed attempt to trend down again, only to recover after neutralizing the unfinished business below — whether or not a session-long rally setup fully forms, so long as it isn’t completed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2688.75 would be likely to trigger the 2687.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…

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