The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Waiting until literally the last minute, Tuesday’s open finally postured defensively ahead of the scheduled afternoon tax reform vote in the House. And despite not first probing fresh highs to stretch the rubber band, the pullback compensated for its delay. The morning’s 9-point drop to 2688.00 that would have sufficed if tested Monday, and could have sufficed on Tuesday, was broken on the way to the final hour’s 2683.25 low. Friday’s “lower prior highs” were less than 1 point lower.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 high was already being tested well before the Senate ended debate over tax reform. A narrow-2-point range at 2689.00-2691.00 into and out of the vote finally broke higher with Europe’s opens. Or, tried. Its reaction down to 2689.00. But it tried, tried again, reaching 2693.25, with the earlier narrow range’s 2691.00 upper-end now being tested as support.

If, then…
The basis for a “session-long rally” setup formed by Tuesday afternoon’s 2690.25 bias environment high being the afternoon’s high, and by closing action having trended down. Maintaining a gap up Wednesday above 2690.25 would complete the setup, and probably target those evasive new highs. Not actually triggering the setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish — especially with the overnight rally offering the setup ample opportunity. Having delayed a simple corrective dip for so long, might the market now embrace its pessimism a little longer? Even without greeting the open at or above yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 highs, extending down would next target 2675.00, and potentially lower.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2691.25 would be likely to trigger the 2689.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2687.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…

good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays morning market tour look at yesterday afternoon yesterday afternoon we talked about this actually at the close we wouldn’t normally be or always be interested in identifying whether the afternoons High developed during the bias environment or if it was exceeded in a down trending day but it as it happened yesterday clothes Trend it down so we look back at the afternoons I and see that it did fall within the bias environment not after and that’s the basis for a session long rally setup if today’s open where to maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s highs then that would Trigger or complete setup to form to complete a session long rally setup so when word of caution even if there hadn’t been youcity of jective minimum minimum consequences would be expecting alright Copper Still firming even more so more power to it gets every benefit of the doubt but only for having recovered 309 310 and now for having probed above this and negotiated this down trending resistance gold even though it might not interfere with the ultimate goal the ultimate upside of ejected in either gold or silver if the overnight High last night is not repeated today that thing for a second consecutive session and some deep purple back is likely to happen on Monday and never the last extended down aggressively yesterday and tested not only its pullback limit but also last week slow recoverycurrencies earlier and there’s not a just a follow-up one thing about your out is that it is back to testing this one 1930 1 1930 the original cell signal do I need to hold that to at least avoid a gap fill at the one 1970 which there’s just no bullish reason for his been in a backing and filling to resume it extended at 1.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was greeted by Sunday night’s relentless rally. If overcome by sellers through the open, then it would reverse the trending back down. Not being overcome by sellers often resumes the overnight trending, although that’s not required. In fact, the 2692.50 open surged to 2698.00, much of which was maintained through the open. Despite absorbing sellers, the rally did not resume. But it was maintained, as the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Only the last of several intraday dips even touched the 2692.50 open, which a bounce largely retraced by 2-3 points into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extremely narrow ranging never measured as much as 2 points, until Europe’s opens triggered a surge back up to Monday’s 2698.00 high. That’s the most influence by Europe’s opens in awhile, if not their only influence in awhile, and it was still limited. Touching 2698.00 has reacted back down to the earlier overnight range’s 2696.00 upper-end.

If, then…
Never probing above yesterday morning’s high was surprising. At least one attempt was credible before getting diffused by noon hour noise, and stopping 1 tick short. Such restrained optimism could be constructive to maintaining the uptrend. But being at new highs, and being ahead of a weighty event like today’s tax reform vote, the restrained optimism suggests that buying pressure waning. The rally is expending its optimism in anticipation, leaving less to expend in reaction. Regardless of buying pressure waning, the pattern should still include at least a probe above yesterday morning’s high to 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00 before a deeper downdraft. Then the next question would be how deep of a downdraft. I’m assuming deep, because I’m also assuming the anticipation for today’s vote has maintained the rally artificially. Preventing a defensive, constructive downdraft to develop organically can make its eventual appearance compensate for the delay by dropping more substantially. And the seasonally bullish Christmas halt is leaving less time available, making a downdraft likely to be steeper.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2699.75 would be likely to trigger the 2697.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open u9nder 2692.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or we’ve got Christmas trading halt coming up that is as of Friday’s close no open on Sunday night or Monday until the regular Monday evening Globex open every met up now just to point out travel maybe even Thursday to some degree on its own it just happens naturallyI would not be as complete of a pattern at the top here at the high here otherwise so I continue to look for at least a probe about yesterday’s highs before a durable downdraft would be as credible as it could be otherwise alright other markets so this influence is down trending influence on copper is remains influential I’m really only identifying a level here that’s of significance not really seeing a pattern that has gray predictive Powers gold firming higher it’s already got to confirm break out and play that struggling to of 8350 with likely resistance of 77 to 1850 silver that suggesting is 1665 and play the 61.8% of the uptrend of the rally that led to the would be the or likelyso would need to recover the clothes back above Friday’s close if it were to go to that extent in order to view that bullishly at that stage but the important thing is it yesterday closed about 271 so doing that at this point would be from a position of strength that’s a position and then basically go on a day tripany questions please go ahead and post them in the chart room and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
After having trended down into Thursday’s close, Friday’s open was greeted by gapping up above Thursday afternoon’s 2664.00 bias environment high. This forms a “session-long rally” setup, which extended higher throughout the day. “Unfinished business above” at 2677.75 was neutralized on the way to 2682.75. The position-squaring window dropped 8 points to probe under the afternoon bias environment’s 2677.25 low, fulfilling the bearish WedEX’s influence, barely. Surging into expiration’s settlement recovered back to session highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
It’s being attributed to anticipation that tomorrow’s tax reform vote will pass, which of course isn’t exactly fresh news. Whatever its catalyst, Sunday night’s open surged to new highs attacking 2686.00, 12 points above Friday’s late dip low. Extending higher relentlessly is still printing fresh highs, now attacking 2693.00. This is a “new Globex trend extreme” that would require intraday retest, eventually, but often done the same day.

If, then…
Friday’s late buying pressure gained no traction for the effort. Gapping to a fresh extreme can compensate by proxy, but that’s if the gap up is maintained. This morning’s open will face two headwinds. The first being a bearish WedEX, which made a brief, minimally sufficient appearance Friday afternoon against the momentum of an otherwise dominant session-long rally. WedEX’s next influence is Monday morning, which is currently being fattened up for the kill. The other headwind is new: relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to reversing at the open, more so on Mondays. Not quite likely, but vulnerable. Thanks to the overnight rally, there’s now plenty of room to expend selling pressure all morning without reversing the uptrend — perhaps also while remaining postured for fulfilling the new trend extreme close that Friday’s close all but requires. Not in the category of headwinds, but also to consider, is the overnight rally’s potentially excessive optimism, which can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. A sideways glance from Marco Rubio could be the prick that pops the balloon, again. But if sellers aren’t obviously in control coming out of the open, then the squeeze could accelerate exponentially.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2687.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2684.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2695.00 and 2699.75.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to our this is a complete week even though Friday is all but a truncated session it doesn’t close any earlier but it will thin out from travel so with that seasonal bullishness just ahead if the markets going to put in any any kind of a decisive or substantial deep kind of pulled back it’s going to have to start not nominally to new highs and it has done so despite one and now to have one of those is the specialized applications one is Friday afternoon and one is Monday morning not before Friday afternoon Friday morning not before or at night after Friday afternoon until Monday morning that is Sunday night is it relevant to the wet X which is a bearish indicator in this case which can’t be inverted it can only be invalidated it was influentialis the high print of the opening 15 minutes until that succeeded by another a higher print that’s going to be vulnerable to reversing it’s and can be as bearish to expend all available buying pressure or could spend relentlessly buying pressure through the entirety of the opening 15 minutes as bearish as not maintaining a higher high but as long as they have it in 15 minutes so longgold which is held 12:55 pull back both Thursday and back hopefully one as well and then Friday is trying to exploit that overnight silver as well which held 1585 and closed basically at around 1605 on Friday trying to exploit that Longmont not much with in order to maintainHenry’s near term hey I’m in the year did not confirm a close up of 8888 still doesn’t get any kind of benefit of the doubt for having reverse the trend without cuz you love 8920 and then the Bitcoin futures so I still don’t have from qcharts the over night they’re having some issues and this is with CME now starting to trade but you can see our Buy Signal our bar setup for long entry on closing above 16/8 was basically basically LeapFrog over its Target targets

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s night’s swing and Wednesday’s choppiness had suggested the market was primed for trending attempts, regardless of whether any succeeded, which they weren’t likely. Primed for volatility, Thursday’s “dry cleaners morning” was a disappointment as price ranged narrowly. The price collapsed, from 2671.00 down to 2664.50 through the noon hour. The afternoon’s noN-bias environment lapsed at session lows at 2654.75. A 7-point bounce failed as oversold RSIs attracted price back down into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Retesting the 2654.75 low’s oversold RSIs was likely to visit 2653.00. Globex almost immediately fulfilled it, piercing it momentarily by nearly 2 points. Trending back up 4 points eventually surged another 3, and then added a point ranging flat-to-higher testing 2661.00 into and out of Europe’s opens. The range is now trying to break higher.

If, then…
Triggering a buy signal above 2659.50 into yesterday’s last half-hour was momentarily productive, and could have triggered a compelling hold-long setup.  The buy signal was sacrificed to retest the low’s oversold RSIs and to test its room for noise at 2653.00. Having neutralized their attraction below, another buy signal should be much more productive. The overnight rally is a good start, but it must be maintained to trigger bias-up to even attack “unfinished business above” at 2677.75 before the afternoon’s bearish WedEX’s influence. Post-open weakness isn’t required to remain within yesterday afternoon’s range.Meanwhile, gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2664.00 high would form a “session-long rally” setup. That can co-exist with the bearish WedEX only by rallying into a late-afternoon collapse.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2662.25 would be likely to trigger the 2659.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2656.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped up 3 points, hardly suggesting there had been an 8-point drop overnight. But it was the first bit of refueling all week, and the first refueling since one week prior. The open exploited by surging to new highs attacking 2675.00 and triggering bias-up. Refueling or not, that was still a lot of optimism just ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. An 8-point drop refueled again, but only for recovering to the morning’s highs. No higher. Despite the restrained optimism, the final hour slid to fresh session lows attacking 2666.00, closing unchanged at 2667.25. The morning’s 2677.75 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s final hour collapse seems to have fully expressed whatever pessimism triggered it. Globex opened with a bounce that retraced at least 61.8% of the late intraday drop. That bounce’s own 61.8% retracement has been recovered entirely, and then some, getting two within 6 ticks of yesterday afternoon’s highs.

If, then…
Wednesday’s choppy action in a relatively narrow range already suggests that a more durable trending attempt is coming. The final hour’s collapse was a glimpse of that, and now so also is its overnight retracement. Not an entire retracement — not yet, if at all — but the directional change reflects more opposing opinion, more of which is reflected in its own swings’ measurements. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s failed probe of multi-session highs triggered a “passive bearish” WedEX. That could be reversed by the proxy of this morning’s open gapping up to new highs. Otherwise, more probes of fresh highs remain possible, and they remain vulnerable to reversing back down sharply into the range, if not also below it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2671.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2672.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Thursday time for Thursday’s morning like at 2 or I’m going to squeeze in this update between meetings Bank of England meeting that just ended ECB meeting and policy statement coming and then Mario draghi speaking lots of opportunity interested in taking something speeding some sort of move because we got a lot of volatility in here and then up toOkay so maybe a bridge too far up to Tuesday’s High and then a big overnight reaction down big recovery we’re just running to expand the range not getting too much more out of the for the effort that is Wednesday despite probing Tuesday’s High a couple times didn’t close above it by the way Wednesday of expiration week the wet X signal number bells and whistles here are the most important ones in this setup being that there is multi-session trending and Wednesday probed a fire high or low and didn’t go out overlapping that Pryor high or low actually either exceeded or held and in this case held that the prior High that is passive not active active would have been towhy is going to become vulnerable to reversing back down calculable e preferably from hitting 2677 75 or 2 within 3 checks breaking lower instead that’ll leave that unfinished business above still be looking for some spot to buy it or to assume that there is potential to hold in Reverse backup marketsplus minus a nickel at this point natural gas position of strength and actually probing lower overnight ahead of it so still room all the way up to 290 before even signaling that a new rally leg new rally leg is in the waythe range wasn’t breaking out of its initial hi we see this a lot I’ve never seen this pattern for instance go back to Alibaba go back to Facebook go back to I believe snap Knotts death GoPro these initial initial dumps I mean this is not a stock you should at least producer

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