The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s late surge to fresh highs at 2667.25 wasn’t rejected overnight, which had ranged exclusively back down to Monday’s 2663.50 late high. Tuesday’s open dipped there one more time before surging to the next higher objective at 2673.00. That was the morning’s bias target despite not triggering bias-up, which is “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. Besides, it was a little overly-optimistic ahead of Wednesday’s coming headlines. The failure came late, after a choppy sideways range, dropping back down to test 2667.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late dip had reacted up into its close, but that was quickly retraced on the way back down to the morning’s lows at 2664.00. A 6-point collapse accompanied Senate election results. The balance of the night has been spent retracing it, and also yesterday’s close up to 2669.00.

If, then…
Several higher objectives have been touched and held through their timing window in just over 24 hours at 2660.50, 2667.25 and 2673.00. No interim pullback refueled buyers before extending to the next higher objective and fulfilling more extended buying pressure without creating new “unfinished business above.” This much optimism may not be excessive, but it is vulnerable to reversing. The last similar instance was November’s last two sessions which fulfilled 2631.75 and 2657.25 before December’s first session plunged to 2605.00. That catalyst was a surprise (Gen’l Flynn day). This afternoon will be batted about by an FOMC policy statement AND the Fed Chair’s quarterly Q&A. nonetheless to suddenly realizing it has no sponsorship or reinforcements. Being overnight, the overnight drop can’t be relied upon for having refueled intraday buyers. Yet, the overnight drop’s intraday origin came too late yesterday afternoon to have been strong-handed sponsorship. At least an attack on yesterday’s highs is still possible before becoming likely to break lower again.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2667.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2663.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2669.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2671.25 bias-up signal.

Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning work at 2 or I just to point out what happened last night first of all yesterday’s brake lower came too late the origin was too late to be durable we knew two things about it it was either going to be brief shallow possibly deep but in any case temporary pick 2 and of the other three extended break yesterday finished it’s because of the ending in the morning above the bicep signal held it as support bounce back basically to the breakpoint of that pattern of that consolidation and then extended Down Deeper back into what have been the overnight range and even under it to test 6050 remember what the lower ejected would have been had sellers gained Traction in today 2660 50 plus or minus a couple ticks either way test it overnight so there is a potential only overnight and it’s already rewarded by retracing as was expected only a temporary drop all the way back to its 2669 brake again but we can give it a little bit better control or 6671 little bit extra room there 72 maybe or probe above yesterday’s range which really 7677 50 is likely to to be the objective of a probe sooner rather than later earlier this afternoon because important afternoon the policy statement from the expected anticipated Monday and then extending into Monday’s close to the next active and all these influential by the way 6725 that then extends to the next to the problem between 6050 and 6725 was compounded by being no that’s not even not refueled just we can’t that try to get to 26so nottoday’s events of this afternoon’s events notwithstanding this overnight drop that did complete a pull back but that’s for the overnight crowd so they get some sort of influence into the open will be looking for a retail store I’ll be giving the potential for retest of yesterday’s highs or benefit of the doubt so long as sellers aren’t we taking control through the open and I don’t mean to say That’s The Longshot there’s a good chance of celery taking control at the open but so long as they haven’t and attack on probe into or probe of yesterday’s highs becomes likely even if that’s if the markets just going to get into posture for greeting the fomc news from nearly attacking yesterday’s highs so some sort of a relief rally knee-jerk reaction up and then Splat could develop and then finally not I’m not trying to call the ultimate reaction to the fomc developments very possible that the market gets over itself and Extenze higher for whatever reason just know the vulnerabilities at the last time this happened it happened on a bigger scale which was extending are the next objective above 26 2600 bass 2601 where 26 3175 that was met overlap a little bit but met on the 2nd of November and active without any refueling really that’s a very shallow dip and didn’t even close about 3175 extended hire anyway to 5725 the next tire objective not that that was the cause of the reaction down but it certainly created fertile ground for the general Flynn reaction all the way down to 2605 that’s those are much bigger objectives much bigger interim pull back the shallower objectives never met over the last couple days 6050 6725 73 did have a similar or I think I’m relatively similar pull back I’ll be in overnight other markets gold which position of strength silver similarly last week’s low potential potential for absorbing potential for converting and copper 6309 to indicate that this was only until then this bounce is just creating room to absorb one big flush that’s still the most likely or at least reliable long Bond initially in either of the two last two days support and resistance not closing Beyond either low pessimistic potentially bullish24 hours ofare weeks range at the let alone breaking lower that was rejected at the open closing back about 5740 would start to suggest that sellers still aren’t bringing it at the same time cuz you left at 7:40 would really undermine the timing any remaining timing to this pattern either retesting the highs or extending hired at 6105 or falling back up at 7:40 would not help us want to see a pull back here that helps the pattern stay on track Natural Gas this is the nearest bicycle is a close above 290 but there’s really no by today if price were to shoot up there that would be a very suspicious of course although so long as hell Gap is left outstanding below that’s the beginning of being able to start giving buyers benefit of the doubt just not a great pattern to trade right now which had made it to 70 75 80 yesterday made it back there today or overnight the reaction stops short of closing back under 7540 Wychwood Target a retest in the Lowe’s basically an island back about 75-80 would have what would extend the correct of Bounce that’s really the most we can do on that the pound a little more brexit news or at least perspective coming out today and that that doesn’t seem to be hindering the pattern much which is still on its way breaking lower Looney willing to give this a benefit of the doubt read that as just a little bit more time to approve itself out because yesterday was at least overlapping or touching the prior couple three sessions Lowe’s but that’s it I mean there’s no forget about second bite at the Apple there’s really no time allowed to let that play out without actually exploiting it so that bicycle triggers today or else it’s just not going to be credible after rejecting a corrective bounce as was likely yesterday not anything new overnight but still maintaining that pattern and nothing really yet reliable in the yen but the near-term or the nearest 8888 can be lowered today if this pattern basically through the day but kind of Correctionit is only consolidating so and it’s by the way against the against the control group of Bitcoin itself which has Futures now and not the same kind of games so does look like a lot of buying is being diverted or at least there’s Now new interest in other cryptos that don’t have the unknown factor of how Futures are going to impact I can’t think of a fundamental reason or much fundamental reason of course etherium has the largest blockchain development efforts but apart from that just a matter of picking one horse over another or even a couple of them you want to go for a trifecta Maybe I’m starting to look into what happens at year-end I’m sure there’s forget about tax reform in a lower tax rate just the time value of money might make it more attractive to larger holders longer-term holders of Bitcoin for instance to sell January one not the first trading Day by the way of January versus bases the stock market but literally midnight and one second in 2018 lot in their games then and have a tax bill it’s not due until the following year so that is probably going to put some down might be decided to allow shorting Futures just as a friend but I don’t think that’s going to be the issue so much as making sure there’s some some protection in place it will be probably later this week and I’ll see you there good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was greeted by mostly recovering from the 5-point reaction down to a pre-open terror attack. Qualifying as a “knee-jerk reactions to headlines” — by definition, weak-handed sponsorship — made its 2657.25 origin likely to be recovered. Which it was, through the open. And then higher to fulfill “unfinished business above” at 2660.50 outstanding from Friday. The morning’s pullback recovered to 2662.50 during the noon hour, but failed to trigger the afternoon’s 2661.25 bias-up which would targeted 2667.25. A late pullback to 2659.00 reversed up relentlessly throughout the last half-hour to 2663.50 at the cash session.

Overnight action’s new info…
Futures continued surging to 2667.25, 4 points above Monday’s cash session was 2663.50. This became the overnight range, which has been held aloft optimistically, without extending higher. Globex immediately dipped back down to 2663.50, then bounced to 2667.75. Another, more gradual dip to 2663.50 developed into Europe’s opens, which again bounced to the range’s upper-end. Another dip and another bounce, of course, now getting briefer and shallower, still contained within 2663.50-2667.25.

If, then…
The current pattern’s influence was verified by yesterday’s session being bookend-ed by two higher calculable objectives. The morning peaked at 2660.50, and surging through the close peaked upon piercing 2667.25 by 2 ticks. The latter happens to have been last Monday’s opening high, so there has yet to be a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest or inhibiting a reversal down. But yesterday’s late surge did exceed the corrective bounce limit that the morning had held, making fresh highs likely to test the room for noise at 2673.00. And its test would be likely so long as a 1-point buffer centered around 2660.50 holds as support, to keep sellers from gaining traction. Testing 2660.50 AFTER probing fresh highs would be less capable of holding. Regardless, there remains no “unfinished business above,” while a Senator’s election today could help or hurt tax reform passing, and tomorrow’s impending FOMC events inhibit buyers.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2664.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2667.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Tuesday time for Tuesday Mornings market tour International gross day I just made that up 12 12 dozen dozen 1 gross okay so mr. trade at yesterday’s close irritating because it was his little dip down at after at least to buy some laps They delayed no bias HUD had HUD the bias up signal that it didn’t trigger perfectly positioned either to resume that biased regret late which is often the case which would have targeted 2667 25 but this little blip down dismissed that possibility or not possibility that just the setup actually triggering late or in other words being likely to perform late going forward we’re going to give that a little wider berth it’s too late in the day at that point for a new pattern to emerge setups are a little different than patterns they play on patterns that have already created Target’s they already reflect buying and selling pressure but we can give a false brake setup to this that despite probing its inflection point never extended deeper than its first three-minute test is that going to be high probability it’s not going to be reliable notwithstanding the actual effect yesterday but if the market wants to be this volatile then I think we need to adapt a little bit to it it is surprising that it happened the case that I just described in another case it’s not because the next to higher objectives really book ended yesterday 26650 was yesterday’s high that was unfinished business left outstanding Friday and the next tire objective 2667 25 was yesterday’s high. Actually pierced by a couple ticks notice what has happened since reaction down to 6350 basically that is held as support throughout the night 6350 back and forth between 65 650 6725 6325 6340 still centered around what was the future 6450 optimism optimism to maintain that in effectual optimism to not extend that it’s not as relevant and optimism is not as productive as it would be intraday remember there was ineffectual pessimism not intraday coming to yesterday’s open that told us to look for follow through the upside so overnight or pre-open ineffectual optimism and pessimism can still have some bearing on the intraday but remember the next room for noise then or the noise above 6725 or the next 73 if 6725 or exceededwell that’ll be in play this morning and even if it’s not put into play this morning they’re still going to be likelihood of extending to it at some point so long as 26 6502660 2661 longest 26650 old support there any relevant window there’s still going to be potential to extend higher to 2773 2673 so I can remember this is actually last night this wasn’t actually the 26 6725 touched after yesterday’s clothes was actually last week so I last Monday’s high that’s actually not wear that was derived that is a calculable objective and so it’s on its own path and exceeded what needed to hold and that was yesterday morning’s high or ranging around at 3 yesterday afternoon he had exceeded what needed to hold for this to have been a corrective bounce yesterday so it’s not a correction or at least it’s an overshot correction if we get to 2673 and fail to longest 26 650 the oldest support we’re probably going to probe last week’s High to 2673 maybe today there’s I haven’t discussed it I don’t intend to discuss it so much as just to point out there is a senate US Senate race in Alabama between Democrat Republican and Democrat gets in it’s questionable whether he would vote for the tax reform package at the Republican gets in it’s not question whether he would vote for the tax reform package and other words seemingly irrelevant otherwise to the market but the market having rallied in Oaks of tax reform package passing within the next couple weeks if the Democrat wins tonight then that probably doesn’t happen and we have a good trade to the downside makeup for the tax savings with bigger profits will take a look at that we don’t know anything or not telling us anything about that but it’s clearly optimistic optimistically whether that means it is taking its hopes on that we never know and we don’t need to know but there’s also a fomc meeting tomorrow that in a rising interest rate environment or interest rate hike environment that the market is being pretty optimistic ahead of this is expiration week so a lot of this is attributable to the mechanics of expiration positions rolling definitely potential for turmoil here especially this morning into the afternoon ahead of tomorrow’s event overnight we learn who won the senate race tomorrow where the fomc policy statement is delivered benefit perhaps a couple of considered the most widely developed cryptocurrency Litecoin is the one I chose for other reasons and this has now gone where we from yesterday so yesterday was greeted at 140-150 and ended in the afternoon we were talking about it at 200 and now it’s banging on 280 aetherium also rally yesterday especially when Bitcoin had issues or coinbase GTX the big institutional exchange issuesit became aI promise that I’m looking for evidence of either way that introducing Futures on bitcoin allows selling pressure to be diverted to be expressed and so that makes the Alternatives that don’t have that possible expression more of a attraction for Long’s seems to have held in etherium although it hasn’t extended much higher I believe that is a new high right so I definitely like those lips look again for some reason my eyes but holding up this is the Bitcoin chart for some reason there overnight is not yet be on the phone with them later which would have been better served to lower instead of broke first accumulative eventually it will extend to make a much bigger more bullish pattern only discernible at this from this degree where it needs to recover so much more first or this surge yesterday will be used for having created extra room too expensive and pressure making it more easily absorbed before it actually does damage allow it to probe a fresh low and recover intraday that would be the nominal bullish scenario for copper gold underperforming silver by yesterday hasn’t extended 4450 so it hasn’t actually created the requirement for fresh Lowe’s Silver which I performed Yesterday by holding up above the prior low it’s already 68 6570 took a shot at 5310 yesterday only fluctuated around it came back to fill the Gap back to Friday’s close so that is still the bicycle that would Target 154 basically one 5408 need to get that under way to get some momentum to absorb crude oil Buy closing about 57 original by signal after dropping to and closing under and still not recovering for a couple of days 5680 limit suggested that the deeper pull back was at least near-term not in play I wasn’t looking at coinbase a little bit high for $40need any other proofthe currency okay so as far as crude oil extending hire overnight back to 5850 5855 at this point it’s still in motion so I can’t say that it’s stopping pessimistically short of the prioritize but if it stopped here it would be pessimistically short of the prioritize which the last time I was already pessimistically short of actually fill in the Gap to its prior High so I’ve got to give the upside for the benefit of the doubt and considering the delay possibly heading to its 6105 Target on this leg that’s without the benefit of fully correcting so we are going to start considering that to be the peak if 6105r test on his leg Natural Gas not by a little but the minimum Target was already met is all been fluctuating around it notice that this is going to create an island out of the last three sessions at a relevant level what do we know about Islands their retested either to form a more durable extreme or on the way to resuming the prevailing Trend so where would a corrective bounce than Peak that depends on whether it’s a correction on the way to lower Lowe’s or it is just looking to hold that extreme and we can just eyeball this and see gaps I want to see what happens it’s 76 I suspect 76 will be tested regardless 605 and the session were to react down then we’d have reason to suspect that this is bottoming the more aggressive the bounce on the Odyssey at this stage trying to create an island trying to leave that behind which it won’t do the likelier that it is just a temporary correct surrounded by interrupting brexit headlines I would like to see this if it’s valid but it doesn’t have to to so long as this first and only break under 78 doesn’t extend down we can take seriously close above 7820 nothing new on the euro which of course has to be meeting and policy statement on Thursday as the bank of England by the way possibility of extending

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up entered a morning-loing whipsaw range between 2647.75-2651.25. Breaking out at noon  held up high enough and long enough to trigger late bias-up. The signal wasn’t productive, but neither was it rejected, despite having ample opportunity. Its 2660.50 target becomes “unfinished business above.” It wasn’t exploited. The afternoon’s dip to 2649.25 retraced 61.8% of the morning’s range, which the close recovered by piercing a fresh high up to 2655.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up to 2657.75 and back down again to this morning’s 2654.50 bias-up signal. The signal has supported interim pullbacks while ranging flat-to-higher, attacking and probing higher highs up to 2658.50.

If, then…
The first event of this big week has been interesting, concerning, and inconsequential. Bitcoin futures on the CBOE launched to 10% and 20% rallies, essentially separated by trading halts. We’ll be checking the chart occasionally intraday for updates. Wednesday’s FOMC statement and Fed Chair Q&A will be tomorrow’s focus. Today will answer whether rallying into the weekend was a corrective bounce that is ending at a test of 2660.50, or if seasonal bullishness just around the corner can attract sponsorship for new highs targeting 2667.25 and 2673.00. The latter probably requires triggering this morning’s bias-up signal, and its only catalysts either way are headlines about tangential news. Last night’s highs don’t require being intraday retest, so not triggering bias-up could be very productive to the downside — even without first testing 2660.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2657.50 would be likely to trigger the 2654.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2651.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour when I go to be looking at Bitcoin very often I’m going to say at least once in the morning at least once in the afternoon and I’m going to bring it up bring up the chart whenever there’s anything that’s relevant and frankly the one thing that I’m most curious about not that there is a 10% pop at the Futures open not that price improves especially in the early going for just many reasons or no reason at all I’m looking more at what happens when Bitcoin goes down its whole purpose of more liquidity more instruments to trade it more participants is greater price discovery and just to see how it goes how it goes at rating when price goes down and not just for Bitcoin but also for etherium and I’ve chosen Litecoin is another just to have a 1/3 in there I like some of the other aspects of that in the charting of it but that’s that’s what we’ll be looking for or maybe when Bitcoin actually dips that or how long it takes for money to move into aetherium and Litecoin or the others just as basically not being exposed to future’s going to see a lot of a lot of interesting questions for today is Friday that is intentional 2654 50 being the biceps right here being this is March Futures now we do have unfinished business but it wasn’t rejected unfinished business to be tested before any kind of a reversal down tries to gain Steam having said that if she isn’t tested first before this overnight range breaks its overnight low go to set the overnight range and therefore under the 5450 450 that’s just set up that we look at as far as the overnight low 54 and then clear up signal doesn’t trigger 6050 26 650 has been tested first several close by moving parts rotating planets that can make the biggest difference to whether or not proved to be only a temporary bounce before reversing down at least two testsor if there is a bigger6725 and 73 alright other markets gold Flat to hire the really in a Range 5550 is still vulnerable to extending down close by 5515 we can start looking for some kind of a Buy Signal nothing noticeably different on copper just still holding out here hanging out not extending down remember the whole problem with cut with a pattern on copper is extending down still not a silver trying to scrape out a bottom here which it may not having tested 1565 they really are 1567 there really is no unfinished business below it’s always helpful to get that done intraday but not necessary silver is One Market that often leaves overnight lows outstanding for a while but with silver regards to silver closing about 1590 would suggest momentum is going to reverse up it doesn’t get price away from retesting overnight lows cuz you have 1604 1605 would suggest momentum is reversing up long Bond up 11 ticks but really in a Range in a Range that hasn’t been rejected hasn’t been confirmed that is 153 10 still needs to recover 154 basically 150 408 154-10 to suggest something more substantial under way to the upside there is a likelihood of testing on 5408 on a break above 15312 15314 but that’s really it crude oil and only ranging around 57 on Friday that extension tire back under 50 plus natural gas under the 286 Gap under the 287 otherwise a couple days on Friday so there’s no requirement to but it is if there’s a balance it has room up to 290 before even suggesting momentum reversing up and really what I’d look for it since there’s a gap that would be outstanding below comes down to 80 or so and then recover signals that are in place and Romaine and play that is Thursday’s break continues to hold confirm Thursday’s break or deeper than Thursday’s break and that Buy Signal would go away bouncing but that’s after I’ve been confirmed all button trenching Sellers and finally missed an opportunity to recover 8920 last week on Wednesday before breaking lower Thursday and even lower Friday basicallyChen’s Garden Post in the chart room anything else to look at and I will see you there before they open good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s open had attacked Wednesday’s 2628.75 lows to within 1 tick. That’s closely enough for a durable bottom to require actually probing and then recovering from a lower low. Optimism prevented completing a low, soon rallying instead to trigger the 2634.25 bias-up. Optimism persisted as its 2641.75 target was met that morning. More optimism prevented an immediate reaction by ranging narrowly through the noon hour. Interrupting the 2-point range was a blip-up that touched the afternoon’s 2643.50 bias-up signal. No-bias triggered, allowing a dip to the 2636.50 bias-down signal, which held despite the bias environment having lapsed, Optimism influenced the final hour’s bounce back up to the morning’s bias-up 2641.75 target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Still firming into the Globex open, a narrow 2-3 point range began from touching 2644.00. Eventually resolving up and extending to 2648.50 is now reacting down 3 points — still optimistically 2-4 points above yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
The not-so secret word for today is “Optimism.” And the question for today is whether its sponsorship is strong-handed, or weak. Any sentiment that is expressed relentlessly ahead of a weighty event can often be a contrarian indicator of how the market will actually and/or ultimately resolve. This morning’s Employment Situation report is one such event. Yesterday’s rally isn’t a clue. It began optimistically when a little more pessimism could have formed a more constructive bottom. And the intraday rally only fulfilled its buying pressure at the morning’s bias-up target, and didn’t recover any relevant level that would have triggered higher targets. The most important clue will be whether the open exceeds or holds the test of a relevant level. Unless and until triggering a bias signal, the relevant levels are probably 2647.75 above, and 2638.75 below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels aren’t normally considered ahead of an Employment Situation report. But 2647.75 and 2638.75 are discussed above.

Phonetic dictation…
coming to a close but it is not over yet we have the employment situation report this morning and we have a situation where a potentially it’s being addressed greeted overly optimistic Lee optimism is not even from a contrarian perspective necessarily bearish optimism of course is a necessary element to rallying the extent degree in other words of that rally depends on how much that optimism can be reinforced generally it’s reinforced by overcoming pessimism optimism status that’s how much pessimism is out there the last less that needs that can be overcome that can be converted into buying so at this point yesterday is premature not being able to prevent the biceps and extended do it that morning come so close at the open and this is after having overnight again it didn’t prevent over or excessive or inpatient buying from ruling the morning containing the day but notice we get some other markers very narrow hovering at the highs not on a reaction down you can sort of see a glimpse of that when the bicep signal is touched by a reaction in the environment environment and there wasn’t any longer a requirement to hold that as support optimism is back up to the mornings bicep Target so optimism that didn’t gain tractionCountry Day High ranging narrowly from there even more narrower even there or sorry or has nearly but in any case ranging near Ali and not even waiting until waiting until the Europe’s opens before extending higher also not responding to Europe’s opens very much can see a little bit of EKG action here but the extension higher never the less briefly to a new Hive not really getting any signs of excessive pessimism so best guesses here which is really what the employment situation report is which is why I don’t generally have preliminary indications ahead of the number best guesses here is 4775 going to be irrelevant level if tested tested pre-open but if it’s test continues or persists between that window that ends when the when the cash option open is added to the opening 15 minutes of all 10:30 but since we have that report coming about an hour or 45 minutes we certainly want to 15 minutes beginning an hour and 15 minutes between the 8:30 and the end of the 9:45 may be triggering can’t dismiss the potential this being a Friday and Friday optimism is being expressed through Fridays open let alone and still not being rejected that has a good chance of carrying the day to whatever degree maybe like yesterday expressing it all in the morning before dying on the vine but still expressing it in the morning and maintaining that signal through relevant Windows probably looking at 5250 5350 let’s just say 53 as a likely objective 253 as a likely objective to the upside anything higher than that we can get out of here to retest 6725 73 potential if the reaction yesterday early enough to be the so opening under it under 35 or 36 won’t necessarily predict again with Fridays 2 days Ovilla quiddity impending start to see a major Paradigm Shift we’ve already expended all this optimism can be difficult to defend against a break under a relevant level through a relevant window by the way through a relevant window to suggest that alright and plenty of still out of attractions below there’s a 3.0go with other markets gold extending down overnight that’s not a breakout or a confirmation as well see it is and silver was but it is kind of a runaway decline big level was finally met yesterday after I publish the day we spotted at 12:53 that’s not holding keep in mind the volatility potential here you know this is the volatility not that it’s level is very meaningful anymore October’s employment situation report the prior or two months prior there was a big volatile day as well unemployment situation report silver also extending lower overnight but not so substantially not so durably and actually trading higher did it get there as close actually 215 65 15 70 which was the target range so interesting way and silver by the way it had its requirement for a eventual third lower closed breakout confirmation eventual third lower clothes for field yesterday but that’s not a bottoming pattern and then gold needs to break out above range closing the last couple days would be initially favorable still has some proving to do to establish it’s not a false break on a gaap up rally going but the more durable bottom in this pattern would fight off would defend against and close positive and that’s not being considered at this moment long Bond flat after having first challenged range overnight so we are discussing yesterday morning at this time and despite bouncing plummeting on the consensus is just a reaction alone to talk of infrastructure spending and triggering closing under the cells have been that was a pretty late so there’s some reason to be suspicious regardless overnight but this is also the timing also makes that kind of Decatur and that this is pessimism ahead of the employment situation report so we’ll take credibly any reaction to this point we do need to first of all of her clothes under yesterday’s trigger that’s the first step to bullishness the next step to being able to view this action as foolish is to actually recover the one 5406 5408 origin of that break it does look like the origin maybe that helps a little more substantial not only the 5680 resistance but also 5740 that had been the Buy Signal to that pull back limit when it was tested coming up on a couple weeks ago and then triggered briefly that does have an opportunity here I shouldn’t dismiss that potential for this on a close above 5740 shouldn’t dismiss that potential for a 57-42 basically turn this into an island last couple days that were otherwise otherwise developed under the pole back limit it’s actually the most likely scenariothat’s basically the stop closing about 57-42 any kind of short in this range looking for a fresh load 5545 450 550 plus minus the nickel natural gas responding up yesterday’s eia report from a position of strength but turned it down anyway I had already got down so really tough it was and I shouldn’t say a position of strength so much is not a position of weakness because it hadn’t yet reverse them at the Muppet at least head tested for filled and held at Target the 70 days the same days action ahead of the report is not telling but it wasn’t recovered so what we’re looking for here is some backing and filling to help form a bottom what were being on the lookout for a second consecutive lower close because that was a multi-session range Tuesday and Wednesday so Thursday’s breakout which it is a breakout is confirmed by the second consecutive lower close today that does away with Annie bottoming potential anytime soon having delayed its objective overly fulfilled it that is a confirmation on Wednesday so we’re not looking for a low and here anytime soon but also because there’s a third lower close entrenched in there somewhere I can afford to bounce bounce it should resolve down yesterday news and distractions generally surrounding this or that it’s not going to help the timing the timing is all over the place not a great candidate for trading Looney doesn’t seem interested to make an island of yesterday’s break really helping to confirm 1815 118 20 this is really the outside limit to any kind of fluctuation now now that sellers opportunity what could have been alright I’ll see you there

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted at the morning’s 2626.00 bias-down signal, having recovered from an overnight dip to the 2020.50 bias-down target. Fluctuating between positive and negative territory never deteriorated and only improved. Its swings were wide, albeit narrower than was expected, repeatedly dipping to the 2626.00 between higher highs from 2631.25 to 2634.50. A late dip started too late to be strong-handed, stopping 2 points short of prior lows at 2628.00 before the close. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2635.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
That unfinished business above could have been neutralized overnight, and it was. The Globex open had recovered immediately back up to 2631.75. It was soon recovered on the way up to 2637.00, fulfilling Wednesday morning’s 2635.50 unfinished business above. Narrow flat-to-lower ranging eventually accelerated downward into and out of Europe’s opens, probing all of yesterday’s highs down to 2631.00. Bouncing almost 4 points had only pierced back above those prior highs, when RSIs diverged negatively to launch another downleg that is now piercing yesterday’s 2629.25 close.

If, then…
Closing yesterday under 2631.75 allowed fresh highs overnight to fulfill the outstanding objective. Already trending down into Thursday’s open will be predictive, depending on what that is being probed. Probing negative territory would be likelier to extend, while already testing yesterday’s intraday lows could still hold their test to form a bottom. Recovering 2631.75 and higher through the open may be the only way to avoid trending down. And simply probing back above yesterday’s highs could be bullish since the overnight action already neutralized that requirement. A lot will be known by where the afternoon is greeted, as the market positions itself ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2629.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2631.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2635.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning working to her December 7th a date that will live in infamy or did everybody knows it is Vito Corleone’s Corleone’s birthday and something else happened as well and something sneak attack maybe happened overnight member we left yesterday session having held test multiple tests through the morning of the 26th 26 bias down signal multiple multiple tests that’s in the negative territory out of negative territory depository but for this little blip down at 2626 held like a rock and the interim produced higher and higher highs and having held 2626 which was the bias down signal put in the playoffs which was 26 3550 left outstanding the more that morning and the afternoon in the afternoon which had or gotten one would have come within three ticks of the bias up mornings bicep signal The Unfinished Business about the neutralize it but did not necessitating because it took so long before that afternoon range even broke necessitated a pull back to stretch that rubber band and as late as that pullback began we knew it would be weekend and the potential is down to 2628 which was tagged here right before the close because it was weak and fulfilling that late dip because it was weekends fulfilling that late dip it was possible to neutralize possible to neutralize the upside unfinished business above that is overnight so long as any problem of yesterday’s highs is neutralized to the overnight that is not recovered not recovered to probe of yesterday’s eyes during the open or at least exiting the open then I won’t ever get to the point where that ships back into becoming but it was tested overnight testing overnight retest it overnight up to 6:37 and then reacted down not just once back down into the support yesterday’s highs but after having bounce not arbitrarily within those eyes with back above those eyes starting again regrouping having a chance to limit the dip to just that one program TSA size dipping back into those eyes and lower than the first attempt low enough that we don’t know how this is going to resolve low enough that yes it is closed 2016 925 is being tested the difference between positive negative and negative predictive but it’s relevant so if the open is probing even deeper in the negative territory then that’s probably bearish probably so long as it hasn’t gotten too carried away and is already probing back under yesterday morning’s was at least 26 26 which will possibly be bearish so long as 26.60 days prior Lowe’s if tested Post open openso that the opening 15 minutesenergy so quickly as to probe under that relevant level and not maintain that break through a relevant window that would suggest not necessarily momentum reversing right back up but that support intended to hold breaking of the essays Lowe’s if yes he’s lives are tested through the open and fail to hold through the open well that’s just more of the same of this reversal where there is no unfinished business above neutralizing having neutralize that attraction above that was left out standing at yesterday’s close and yesterday’s range which is a point it out and it looks stable because it didn’t go anywhere although there was some degree of instability in that these swings back and forth and positive territory they were pretty wide albeit not as wide as expected today we did expect a lot of consternation and arguing between Up and Down based on where and how Tuesday and closed but usually that signal leads to much wider and fewer moves but in case the new Range while it looked stable because it ultimately didn’t do much I didn’t get off the mark much especially compared to last couple days to climb that’s not stability it’s not accumulation and the decline is now instead of accumulated against absorb his only paused and is free to resume or at least try to put in some accumulated Behavior to avoid trending now and so silver which turned it down yesterday stopping 1590 that would have been a pretty healthy objective and this is after multi-session range broke out so it was confirmed yesterday is now required still extending lower overnight signal that was broken into and out of the weekend and now this Friday tomorrow we have another employment situation report coming so much lower lows in play and that’s by the way seems to be an employment situation report phenomenon because there’s the last pretty much associated with the same thing one more lower closed today would for Phil Silvers minimum requirement for a fresh low close create the same requirement multiple sessions on Tuesday and yesterday at least and then for a couple months still the lower end of the range coming into tomorrow’s employment situation report overnight so 5550 so farhello it does protect add to 61.8% extension from this range from to the most relevant price points that Define this range so it is sort of room for noise room for noise meaning it can be a false break it can just be that room to accompany say silver it gets lower lows out of its system cuz they’re probably not going to divert from each other but any lower preferably close back about 1260 at a minimum to even begin suggesting that sellers aren’t really bringing it but having tested 12 5550 12:50 actually 12 d585 feeling to close above 1260 would suggest negative reaction coming to tomorrow’s employment situation report which doesn’t really prevent their being a second consecutive lower close didn’t produce as I can get her clothes yesterday so that doesn’t necessitate but it does put the test to develop today we don’t know if there is copper and it closes positive that at this stage of the formation which is essentially Tuesdays High to suggest probably in this range before suggesting or signaling let alone would have been the by signal to that about 5740 but this is where we’re going to start looking looking at the actual resolution to determine the consequence natural gas Limitedbuttrying to get the stuff out of here 2 to 80 to 81 so that low will need to be were tested at some point intraday likely or whatever the opens Gap if the Gap is lower at least the opens Gap will need to be retested intraday from above so say the open is hypothesizing here which is the technical term for spitballing 285 having traded to anyone before they open but overnight and gapping down still on 281 bounce back on report which still need if not it today someday to test at least he opens Gap from above that is really from this how I just from testing at all and potentially even before a bottom would be credible so we take away this by signal because it could be recovered prematurely and not be bullish so what is it that after the news not following through necessarily on the cover yesterday’s break which came all the way down to supportokay we took a minute there to fix this so the Euro which came all the way down to three critical support and 11790 being probed overnight the Yen this moment not exploiting that it bounced back into this critical range which needs to be recovered 8989 20 Looney if it has a bullish scenario it was going to come down at least to 7820 at but at least hold 78 305 to make a turn here attracted Higher by these gaps up not doing so well and holding that over night but that is a critical part of that setup which is to reverse higher overnight pound which broke now extending even lower and the Aussie full feeling that unfinished business below these rallies were premature no matter what they tried to do they weren’t going to gain traction while that unfinished business below is outstanding at this two-week-old Gap that was tested pretty early last night and now probing even lower alright a lot today which we have now done and I’ll come back in before the open as well if there’s any questions before then if there’s any material changes to the chart okay good luck today

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