The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Holding Tuesday morning’s 2643.00 bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2636.50 bias-down signal. No-bias trending tested its 2648.25 bias-up target, anyway, as the bias environment began lapsing. Any higher any later would have invalidated the no-bias. Otherwise, buyers had just expended as much energy possible to still not gain any traction for their effort. Dropping through the noon hour resumed dropping out of the afternoon bias environment. Extending down to 2628.00-2629.00 went out within 3 ticks of the rally’s prior upside objective 2631.75, within 3 minutes of the cash session close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately dipping a little deeper was quickly retraced back up to 2631.75, but only briefly. Continued China weakness helped to extend the decline, along with another possible detour in tax reform, falling even lower to 2620.00 just ahead of Europe’s opens. Price action into and out of the low has formed an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern up to 2626.00.

If, then…
2631.75 was likely to be tested yesterday, and its resolution was expected to be predictive of the next move. Not resolving its test decisively suggests an equilibrium response — today’s session is vulnerable to trending aggressively in one direction, and then reversing, both intraday. This equilibrium can be negated by the open immediately extending beyond a relevant level, such as a bias target. Otherwise, we’ll expect an early trending effort, and anticipate its reversal. Already rallying into the open would be vulnerable to attacking or retesting the overnight lows, and then recovering. Extending a pre-open rally into the morning would be vulnerable to reversing back into negative territory.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2628.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2626.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2624.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays Morning Market to her the word of the day maybe equilibrium come back to that in the moment first big picture there’s Monday’s brief High the basically believe rally on the Improvement or advance that is advancement in the over the weekend in a tax reform bill really just a relief rally because headlines and major advancements said then coming down the pike starting with Tuesday Tuesday and then Wednesday into Thursday so do we call it at 232 and 1/2 day rally that was just a retest after the Flynn misreporting created this huge reaction down a huge reaction to his 2626 26 so why do I go back through all of that because that’s being retraced again on now overnight news among other things continuing kind of running a little old now extended ready to bounce China’s problems stock market problems as being a negative contributor that’s contributing to Tech weakness which is more of a symptom or it becomes a vicious circle I suppose as the tech problems that we already looked at Saturday dominating the ndx which is been underperforming but become symptomatic driver and then symptomatic anyway but it also I renewed issues yesterday and today overnight on tax reform so that’s been corrected we’re also getting a little old a little extended an hour reaction down so we’re kind of right at the precipice of one or the other as I said being extended in the decline ready to bounce or ready to collapse and so of course with the market likely to do one or the other it’s going to do both that’s what equilibrium is basically that having extended by the way we extended down overnight here’s yesterday’s drop within the within 3 minutes of the 175 which drop was on its way to to producing which it’s retest before the open road Riot retest if that were at all compromised would require 2631 75 325 was tested into the clothes not dispensed with decisively it was proved it was in position to close decisively under it did not it was recovered the market was in position to recover it through the clothes did not so that’s the equilibrium at a very relevant level 2635 being objective ultimate objective which was 5725 still testing it it’s sort of an indecisiveness but it’s very opinionated indecisiveness and so the market tens and responsein equilibrium responsein both directions of course not at the same time that would be a neat trick but trending in One Direction reversing it trading in the opposite direction 7th least two different directions substantial directions today are likely sometimes 3 or 2 of one one of the other the exception is when the open has extended has done by proxy what the prior session didn’t do by stopping at that relevant level if overnight action can extend it agree that the next open compensates for the delay then forget about equilibrium last night almost 50 which was touched at the low gapping down under or extending under or just renewing the buyers down signaled by failing to Old 26 2015 through 10:15 that would break free from any magnetic attraction to 2631 75 signal is 2626 notice that’s being tested here as well as this inverted Head and Shoulders pattern forms inverted Head and Shoulders pattern with initial potential to about 26 28 75 3250 26018 extension to 36253 650 what do we know about Head and Shoulders is they often there called reversal patterns for a reason because they tend to reverse they don’t always they don’t always if they don’t reverse than they extend down how far do they extend down that’s the interesting thing because we’re at 6118 or 16018 or 26018 extension from left shoulder to right neck while that is the likely reversal potential if the head and shoulders instead of reversing continues then it’s extension tends to be a hundred or two hundred percent extension of the left shoulder right neck lines and 26 1850 maybe 26 1450 so this pattern extends down rather than Rally’s 1814 and above 5 + 3 perfect pattern to a company in equilibrium when caveat disclaimer To The Head and Shoulders that develops overnight if it doesn’t influence the opening 15 minutes about influences and 15 minutes it’s no longer influential influence during that window because it’s otherwise donesomeoneradio says break in Copperas and confirm today that could be bullish and silver also bouncing where a second consecutive lower close would be bearish so the long bond has for the first time yesterday I’ll be at within or overlapping prioritize produce the highest close of the range and this is after a couple of dips and tests of support extending higher overnight maybe it’s just stuff like the safety or it’s it’s help to buy a flight to safety that is in stocks falling but if on its own accord it can close higher today fresh how I will give it everybody for the doubt that a much more substantial rally is underway bounce yesterday the first must hold pull back low 5680 that produce the 5740 by signal that triggered very briefly so the fate of extending the near-term 6105 or 9 probably depends on holding 5680 today and preferably closing 5740 and held it as quickly preferably would be every bit as powerful a 302 or recovered and by the way it would also help the Greek tomorrow’s report from a position of strength currencies that would be pretty substantial pretty effective needs to be maintained through the clothes otherwise it would have been bullish or at least maintaining it today’s the day will resolve but the pattern is to give back the Gap up if that pattern can be broken today by not returning the Gap up then we could have a another rally leg and extension of the leg off the low in order to seal it’s basically 133similar to the

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 Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s gap up completed the retracement of Friday morning’s headline-triggered plunge. More so, it reacted to the weekend’s tax reform advancement. Wednesday and Thursday’s rally last week already had anticipated the news, so Monday’s 2660.25 open’s 5-point surge probed the overnight high and then promptly collapsed. The drop paused long enough for a bounce to neutralize the open’s gap up, before extending down to the morning’s test of 2651.00. Sideways ranging held several tests of 2657.25 resistance through the afternoon bias environment. Another collapse slid to attack 2638.00 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late slide extended through the Globex open to test 2634.00. Firming through midnight reached 2644.50. Consolidating there had started breaking lower into Europe’s opens. A 9-point slide attacked the earlier low to within 5 ticks. The slide’s 61.8% retracement has tested and retested 2640.75, which had been one of yesterday afternoon’s downside targets. And the retest just broke higher to attack the decline’s other target at 2643.00.

If, then…
The attack on last night’s earlier low could suffice for its retest, if the open is able to rally above their 2644.50 interim high. Otherwise, the next lower objective is a test of 2631.75, which had been an objective of the previous rally. Its recovery was pretty significant, as the next higher objective above 2631.75 was 2657.25, and it has held both of its intraday tests. More so, each test of 2657.25 has been reversed to close under its 2651.00 room for noise. This is distribution. So, closing back under the 2631.75 previous objective would essentially seal a top — not necessarily reverse momentum down, but confirm that a downleg is forming. Similarly, 2631.75 can be tested and probed intraday but still recovered through the close to avoid sealing a top, robbing sellers of traction and enabling another bounce to at least 2651.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2644.75 would be likely to trigger the 2643.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2638.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or kind of looks like a sideways range overnight let’s compare that to yesterday’s clothes yesterday is closed which basically came in 2638 3850 and that was after having Consolidated Redrum 39 or down to 39 3875 then the very last minute blip down to 38 extended that immediately into the Globex open and then bounced bounced in the midnight that’s not really a rally more so firming lack of selling pressure suddenly not really any sponsorship here double top there and then started selling off again into Europe’s open so we’re going to express whatever us markets had expressed yesterday and their initial Gap up a relief rally on the tax reform advancement but really just we testing last week’s high of a two-day rally that had already pretty much discounted anticipation of that event and trended straight down from there pretty much so Europe gets it out of their system as well as suspect at least for now or I suppose the rat race meant if this were very satisfied with this degree of an attack on the low anything lower then 3525 versus the actual 3375 Arley Arlo anything lower would have required actually probing under the 175 3175 or the actual Target but remember 3175 3175 was basically above 2601 and above 3175 was 5725 which has been tested twice and both times failed to close above 51 or around 5725 so after that after break 5725 and yet failing to maintain to the 51 closing back under 3175 with essentially seal the top for that reason I can’t I can’t advise anticipating or expecting that 2631 75 will actually break lower lot of Defense there a lot of Defenders are there and it’s been pretty much straight down from testing retesting 5725 757 we’re not going to worry about the clothes until the end is coming or at least back to 5725 at the least relevant I was just attacked after hesitating hesitatingtire shop signal so there’s no attempt the markets in proximity to actually triggered by ASAP and rely on this retest of the earlier low to get out of the open above the interim High 4450 and Trigger the bias up signal 43 at 10:15 its in proximity to do that and if they can’t do that there’s something wrong with the upside 3175 4075 can’t be recovered let alone 43 3075 is a very likely objective any questions let me know quickly activity gold and silver silver a little bit lower as it still has this obligatory bounce off of Friday’s low that just was too shallow 2 in need of actually being probed long Bond still not exploiting and it’s still not exploiting that Friday and probe substantially or probe to prioritize I need to get this stuff transferred over 154 basically a premium or discount in March from December but I got no reason to the Buy Signal that was finally probe considerably but stopping at least fill in the Gap back to the prior high and yet we’re dipping even deeper overnight has to close by 5748 to maintain the upside momentum natural gas going on even deeper to its 287 Target. Just the Gap outstanding but 287 on its retest even deeper overnight and that’s after yesterday held the 310 312 opening test overnight test actually bouncing even further is it going to get this 76 basically 7655 out of the way corrective bounce there are some other developments confirm Friday’s break out yesterday for the second consecutive hasn’t prevented extending a little bit higher Bank of Canada does have a policy statement coming out this week much more so support apparently and yesterday stillthey can work out but it’s just not high probability enough and the recording here is whatever was going on around 4075 he is trying to settle its way back up greet the open and rally mode and we could have we can have a pretty significant rally underway somewhat of a running correction here yesterday afternoon maybe a little too congested but still get past any congestion through the open and bigger retracement of the prior leg or downleg would be possible any questions good luck today.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s news of the Trump investigation getting a scalp triggered 43-point collapse from 2649.00. It quickly fulfilled its potential at the morning’s 2605.00 low. Headline-triggered moves are usually retraced entirely to their origin. Eventually. In support of this instance’s retracement, I described a bullish scenario that suggested the news wasn’t necessarily bad news for Trump. In fact, rallying relentlessly through the balance of the session retraced the plunge to 35 points into the afternoon’s bias environment. That was narrowed to 5 points ahead of the close, which essentially ended the day essentially unchanged at 2642.00, but still 7-8 points under the plunge’s origin. Firming into the futures close nearly touched 2545.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relevant point to Friday morning’s news story was retracted after Friday’s close. Sunday night’s Globex open was the first opportunity for a price reaction, and to tax reform advancing having cleared another hurdle over the weekend. Gapping up 10-12 points to 2654.50 was under Wednesday’s 2658.50 high. Spiking up to 2663.25 reacted down to this morning’s 2656.50 bias-up target as support. This defines a sideways range which has persisted through Europe’s opens.

If, then…
Saturday Review described the likelihood for extending through Friday morning’s high. Retracing the knee-jerk reaction’s origin doesn’t actually reward sponsorship that absorbed it. Probing new highs is a start, and need not last very long. Meanwhile, tax reform advancing was already largely discounted by Tuesday and Wednesday’s rally. Now there is no complexity overnight high that would qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme,” so there is no requirement to retest any of it intraday. And opening under its early low would suggest that momentum is reversing down for the morning. The early low is also this morning’s bias-up target, so not renewing the bias-up signal could put the morning on defense. The bias-up signal is the plunge’s origin, and not even triggering it could be outright bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2658.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2656.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2651.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2649.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to her real short and sweet because pretty much just went over this Saturday review but essentially Friday stunning move or moves the knee-jerk reaction to the news story that as analysis started noticing noticing I guess somewhere near the low which satisfied a lot of selling pressure that the report was maybe a little flawed and not in some minor ways to the session retraced to end the day basically unchanged actually 2642 is the cash Station close Friday 2641 basically was the Futures close on Thursday then it gets flipped 2646 or 45 actually was being attacked at Friday’s close 2647 was being attacked at Thursday’s cash session close so basically unchanged on the day but not yet Rich racing the origin of the plunge the knee-jerk reaction to the news which is what usually is retraced and more so buyers that absorb the reaction the knee-jerk reaction are typically rewarded with some higher high that didn’t necessarily mean new Highs but the measurements came out to higher highs new highs and there’s the prior hide Wednesdays I being tested at last night’s open which by the way printed under did not print AB of Wednesday’s high before probing it probing it in a single Spike up and spending the entire day of the night so far at least overlapping it now the cash session met yet we’ll talk about it at the time for the time being unfinished business thanks to the overnight that would require this area to be retested in what way would be having which is essentially or even though which by the way this is all consolidating with support being the bias of Target so what would constitute a reversal would be this setup having probe the prior day’s High overnight exiting the open under the early load early Globex low would reverse momentum down don’t need to get any trending overnight to reverse just those two simple data points which by the way that would probably avoid signal 15 which means the signal wouldn’t be renewedthat would likely lead to backing and filling backing and filling through the morning the bias up signal is 2649 if that doesn’t trigger that by the way represents a complete replacement of the knee-jerk reaction to the news if 2649 is not recovered through 10:15 to trigger by step that would not just back and fill that would probably be pretty bearish for the morning not necessarily testing Friday’s low but racing meaningful portion of it otherwise there isn’t anything to prevent trending up nothing prevents is pattern from trending up but keep in mind this isn’t just a reaction to the knee-jerk reaction or recovery of the new jerk reaction to the news this is also a reaction to the tax reform package that over the weekend which is interesting of course because this on Wednesday and Thursday this rally a lot of headlines detailing or describing or other advances other likelihoods for the event for the tax advance so that’s pretty much built in its already discounted cannons to extend this morning it’s going to be vulnerable to reversing down intraday again silver Friday of Thursday brakes Thursday to avoid testing support filling attraction Thursday even though I still did not maintain gapping down back into the range bouncing back up to 150 for resistancewe need to get out ofcrude oil tried extending stopped a little pessimistically short of actually filling the Gap back to its prior High clothes although that range was requested a little bit weaker here overnight but giving that every benefit of the doubt that a recovery is underway natural gas firmer here training back up to 3310 North at 310 312 which must hold as resistance to maintain the 287 Target the yen is not maintaining Fridays recovery from under the 89 8920 support level that had got one reaction on Thursday before being tested program or considerably on Friday and then reacting up overnight it’s back that I actually got back down to Friday’s Lowe’s but you’re being tested there’s no bicycle here without closing which is pretty much positive territory the difference between positive or negative territory that’s the weather today or tomorrow but tomorrow is going to be too late if at least 89 doesn’t hold his support today breaking under 11860 on Friday before bouncing back to resistance giving it another shot today Looney extending Friday’s rally which Fridays rally just was perfect storm here the break out and it’s confirmation a required and eventual third lower close it was a fulfilled immediately no further downside requirement that’s what that’s what greeted Canada’s economic news that triggered the Surge and that has just followed through pretty well back to 79 so we’re back up to the size of this range that had multiple opportunities multiple tests for turns to what had been a bicycle at 78 7805 so presumably sellers a little bit more selling a false start fall start scratch the rubberband credible as any other bicycle it was triggered in this area today would confirm extended through the 13450 Target by holding a very shallow before bouncing 475 really have to give good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2635.00 ranged sideways up to 2541.00 until finally surging back into rally mode. Extending into the noon hour fulfilled the next major objective at 2657.25 by 1 point. The balance of the session trended back down, retracing the resumed rally’s last surge down to 2541.50. A late bounce retraced the afternoon’s drop by 61.8%, which was also essentially 2651.00 resistance whose recovery would have been bullish. But its resistance held, and the cash session closed at 2647.00. No “unfinished business above” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Reacting down sharply through the close extended to 2640.00. Gradually deteriorating to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2637.00 bias-down target found support to bounce into Europe’s opens. Attacking 2646.00 attracted more selling, which got steep down to 2631.25. Now a 7-point bounce is probing more than 1 point back above 2637.00, but still well into negative territory.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s decline relieved a lot of the high’s overbought condition, but that wasn’t necessarily bullish. Not without being exploited either by closing back above a relevant level, or by gapping up sufficiently. Closing back above 2651.00 wasn’t only not done, it was attempted just short of holding through the close. And failing to complete the last element of a setup tends to resolve as bearishly as it would have been bullish.  Which explains the overnight drop as possibly fulfilling a bearish scenario, and not necessarily starting one. This exemplifies yesterday’s Market Wrap conclusion: “The most bullish scenario may be to not delay extending Thursday afternoon’s slide, to finish correcting.” Of course, last-minute wrangling over the tax bill has accompanied each dip and trough. That’s likely to persist into the morning. Gapping down above or below yesterday’s 2635.00 low, and its immediate reaction, will help to anticipate how the market intends to react to today’s tax reform story.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2634.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2637.00 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal, next targeting 2631.25 and 2628.50. Exiting the open under 2639.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2642.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour it’s December December one interesting Head and Shoulders pattern here there’s the neckline there’s the left shoulder right shoulder some symmetry Head and Shoulders 61.8% extension from the right neck actually the left shoulder to the right neck take off a tick for the offer gets to a 160 1.8% extension 61.8% 160 1.8% into 61.8% are likely objectives of a head and shoulders are valid Head and Shoulders so it’s possible to 2631 actually 26 3 125 Head and Shoulders pattern and head and shoulders patterns after they’re fulfilled then reverse back in the opposite direction so if this head and shoulders pattern is reversing backup at least before the open if not through the open remember overnight objectives created by patterns or characteristics of price Behavior that are associated with overnight action need to be obvious during if not through the opening 15 minutes of volatility or else they’re done that’s their influence the opening 15 minutes about that’s your influence on the intraday after that these overnight patterns don’t matter much other than to the extent that coincide with other measurements so if in fact extension projection of this head and shoulders if that is in fact valid support then we should be rallying back up into the range of above 2641 would start to suggest that buyers are we taking control what is it would avoid the next lower to 61.8% extension which may be irrelevant 2626 75 which may be irrelevant by the time we get to the open if we’re so far removed from it it would take some pretty quick and I’m not putting a pretty quick sewing Post open selling to get that done and that would not be healthy actually I would be so far removed from the head and shoulders it’s recovery would be less likely more so though it would take this correction all the way down into Wednesday afternoons range or at least to the upper end of it as I said yesterday the next hour or at least the constructive pullback low was in the Gap when there’s a gap that’s not an air pocket just because there’s no trading there air pockets are not the absence of air pockets or overly traded ranges that no longer offer any support and resistance they’ve been so chipped away a bullish pullback would hold within this range like 26 31 25 or 26 28 5026 2875 room for noise around 31:25 Sao opening above 41 for starters would have a good shot at getting away from there from that lower down side extended down side extended downside that has developed by the way because yesterday’s decline in Decline remember I said that the more bullish scenario would not be the end of the decline yesterday but to get more pressure out of the way we’ve had a pretty big couple days if the least and so getting sellers out-of-the-way accelerating sewing pressure into the morningthat could be the most bullish only 200 degrees for 26 3126 2850stent of the pullback that could still be likely to have some Edge on being just to pull back pretty significant off the high but it’s a pretty big rally that’s being corrected any lower a much lower and under 2626 starts it doesn’t preclude there being a corrective or a bounce that is from Troy 626-426-2675 but that bounce itself would likely be only a correction to a bigger to climb into way what could cause that with a story that’s a company the the reaction down yesterday not necessarily off the top it was more of over but extended over everyone situation based on some some apparent holdouts on the tax reform package signaling their acceptance but then India says closed delaying the vote and extending that overnight and then lower this bouncing to Europe’s opens didn’t hold long didn’t hold very well for very long narrative has just deteriorated and so if that if the vote were delayed again today there are some procedural issues or some gimmicks to the package to the text from package that are being overruled that they’re trying to get in trying to replace that are necessary to potentially to a try or presumably to attract certain vote vote is delayed today that’s clearly not going to be received well and there’s a lot more downside than just 26 2675 especially if it’s tested because having to extend down that deeply already suggests that were so far removed from yesterday’s high that it’s no longer just a temporary correction testing 2626 2675 and already bouncing and bad news comes out on the reform package or something else takes down that range remember the next objective 1750 outstanding from from Wednesday and then Tuesday Tuesday’s pull back of thighs at the 2609 75 low that’s not support that’s an attraction support is lower sport gets us down at 2605 so bad news would find a fertile sewing ground to exploit its pretty critical to recovering order greeting any bad news from a position of strength to get out of boat 2641 as early as possible and maintain that and have that evolve into something or like Post open alright I was too deep into the woods if you have any questions feel free to ask statements of support and movement forward on the package but still through the open getting out above 41 is it possible to get too optimistic too early to be sustained it is possible but we’ll take a look at that as that develops if that develops remember yesterday and close is 26 equates to 2647 essentially 2646 75 the future was this late drop down to 42 that extended deeper overnight so it really 2647 lot of resistance up therebut here it is 2647 a lot of resistance up there so there is room for early and not yet two different stagesalright other markets gold extended down this is February gold it’s about a $3 premium to December gold which had supported several Gold Head support 12 8:50 12:30 7:50 so 1280 5012 8350 both broken yesterday both being tested or the lower end being tested is resistance here overnight avoiding covering 1280 58 E350 and the declines momentum remains intact March silver similarly versus December badass 6 or 7 Premium 1670 + 1650 + 1670 + 1650 injectors on the downside 16 let’s make it a dime because I think we’ve got enough of that previously greater premium and I don’t want to start referring to those two as a five to $0.10 premium just too tired of the market for that so 1660 to 1680 number 1680 was attacked within a couple cents stopping optimistically short of filling that Gap that’s what told us be wary of extending down Wednesday well closing lower as room now to bounce back to 1660 even 1670 1668 that really being attempted here but that’s how much room there is for bounce without it even beginning to become bullish this was a very interesting development in between publishing the daily spot yesterday and the bond market close which rather than closing decisively actually recovered to go out and wasn’t broken and it was within a touch but it was still not decisively broken recovery is that being exploited big-time having touch 154 it is required that it be recovered then a close that’s really are a big bicycle here closing above 154 there’s no requirements 53 so long as 154 is recovered through the closed closed today would be as barish as would have been too close under 153 tax or maintain the clothes under 153 yesterday 5680 5744 two days two consecutive sessions closed at or overlapping 5740 which rejected of 3/16 it’s by recovering 312 that is not so bullish anymore about 3:16 will give every benefit of the doubt that this was The Detour down and not a detour up that’s the burden of proof on buyers is 316 otherwise until thenis testing 310 312 resistance can even get that in his cell signal 310 312 resistance and testing just the range let alone closing back under it having tested it but get there would maintain the Berenstain area if not actually reinforce it alright any questions and I will see you there before the open what am I doing remember we do currencies at the end now okay speaking of which Aussie trying to bounce again it did bounce considerably I mean not arbitrarily back to its the upper end of its range before reacting down no more boys than were the other two bounces still needing to fill this Gap outstanding it because the Gap above was filled already lower lows could extend the pound now needs to hold one 3475 to maintain its upside momentum having extended above the 13450 target Liberty breakout confirmation confirmed breakouts confirmation being a second consecutive lower close in this case confirm breakouts require there to be an eventual third lower close there it is already not a great pattern to try bottoming unless it’s already bottoming today so whatever today’s pattern is if it’s not a bottoming pattern that we’re going to be looking for lower Lowe’s next week 1860 cell signal never broken decisively always being overlapped so came back up to 1 1935 cell signal but I think 3500 1930 back in 1860 would resume the decline or take another shot at the cell signal triggering from testing this is still a test this area so until closing and not still overlapping it still potential for recovering this holding this in resuming the rally at least alright good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s opening surge probed the morning’s 2633.50 bias-up target by 3 ticks before the first half-hour had ended. And before the 2628.50 bias-up signal could be triggered. Its reaction down managed to trigger late no-bias, using the grace period to reject bias-up. Triggering no-bias after testing a bias signal puts into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal. Which would have been 2617.50, but Wednesday’s low only got to 2620.00. Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.00 prior low was probed only during the cusp between the bias environment and the noon hour, and then during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Both probes failed, but their bounces up to 2626.50 defined the afternoon range’s high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s 2622.00-2626.00 range persisted into Europe’s opens. Bouncing from the range’s lower-end became trending through its upper-end. The trend became more aggressive after testing 2630.00, and almost surged to within 1 tick of yesterday’s 2634.25 high. A 3-point reaction down just touched 2631.00.

If, then…
Thursday is greeted with conflicting influences. Repeatedly absorbing tests of 2623.00 is deserving of a greater reward than just ranging sideways up to 2626.50. And not already exploiting a greater upside reward suggests that “unfinished business below” at 2617.50 is influential. Not fulfilling the attraction below overnight or this morning was likely instead to greet today’s open by gapping up. And the overnight rally suggests the delayed reward to yesterday afternoon’s buyers will come before fulfilling downside attractions. A runaway rally isn’t likely, but some intraday extension will be likely if not quickly rejecting the retest of yesterday’s high.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2631.75 Would be likely to trigger the 2630.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2628.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday steps Thursday morning Market to order it is Thursday November thirty First the last day trading day of the month tomorrow is Friday of course December one first trading day of the new month last month of the year what else do we know about it we know that it’s being greeted optimistically yesterday’s range is the afternoons range that is didn’t exploit that buyers had absorbed the probe under 2623 the probe under Tuesday afternoons last relative low after being probed above Tuesday’s eyes somewhat strength somewhat a bit of strength and otherwise a position of strength that have outlasted the clothes trending down overnight intraday would have likely recovered but not enough to prevent trending down in fact the delay and rewarding buyers for having absorbed that probe under-23 just made made or makes more likely that lower lows will come because they were so influential as to prevent recovering yesterday afternoon currently that’s couple of those there’s still a Tuesday’s oversold are size and its 2609 75 pull back but yesterday also had put in the Play-Off sitting down signal 2617 54th Avenue held test both by not rejecting the bias down until late till invoking the grace period but rejecting it anyway the only way that we are going to avoid testing 1750 ever either overnight or this morning considering yesterday’s inability to Rally from the afternoon or through the afternoon the only way to avoid testing that over night or this morning would have been to Rally overnight opening flat opening within a range today would have had one likely very likely overwhelmingly likely outcome that would have been to extend yesterday morning’s reaction down overnight took care of that first yesterday afternoon’s range persisted into Europe’s opens if not through Europe’s opens already firming party probing a little bit higher and that extending and extending that assist within a tick of yesterday’s high what actually yesterday’s high of 26 3350 that was the morning it was probed by three checks just recently here overnight overwhelmingly overnight to overnight action using overnight but let’s at least because from yesterday morning and then back off 3 or more points that suggests that optimism here but it is restrained and there is still buying pressure available now that comes with live it’s so for instance this morning 2630 50s by accept signalwhich is now beingActon support if that’s not triggered at 10:15 of course then doesn’t matter what kind of pre-open pessimism there might have been the bias up failed the trigger that’s more relevant if at 940-526-3175 which is being tested right now if that is maintaining its recovery if it’s back to being recovered will give the bicep signal 3050 benefit of the doubt that it will be 30 minutes later but right now but we do have in front of us at this time the data available show stopping short of the auvergne of the essays high so we’ll give that some degree of or some benefit of the doubt there was a little deterioration here not really a negative two virgins but it’s worked itself out paid a price for it the question is then if we open up here at 4 or if we open the question is to what degree would be in play remember though there is a Gap Band Outstanding within yesterday’s range it’ll still be attractive gapping up above yesterday’s range would help to Anchor have pull back if we reverse engineer the attraction back down to yesterday and yesterday’s high would be difficult to get back down to your house and lower we can at least suspect that today’s open is less likely to Gap up above so that I’ll be our first test of that template whether it’s in force and that is if the open is gapping within yesterday’s range or above it camping Within but would have less sponsorship and less likelihood of extending of maintaining its extension if there is one we are going to look for silver levels updated on silver silver and gold February but essentially yesterday at 1650 unfinished business was filled of the low a couple months ago lower overnight I’m putting a V bottom to the bottoms when TV bottoms appear they usually appear from a lower level so that right away makes that less likely and if there is a second V bottom attempt it usually fails so not really rushing for to look for a Buy Signal here gold avoided closing under 1250 bases December yesterday although signal overnightagainso I’m asking $4 Cent $24 spread here so I’ve 1270 or 12 8150 whips basis February gold closing Under 12 8150 would confirm momentum as a verse down Long Pond closing 53 would indicate a much bigger Decline and away and not simply a corrective dip all of this probing above 150 for failing to extend was also chipping away at resistant so it at least has the opportunity if it could stretch the rubber band snap back up find buyers at least has the opportunity that on the next approach of 154 resistance is basically gone but it has to hold 153 it has to close back above on 5320 so not exactly being attempted here overnight crude oil which completed a pullback or tested lower prioritize fill the gap down here at about 5680 then to 5675 didn’t trigger it’s by signal yesterday that has extended hire overnight eventually lately every benefit of the doubt for flight for fulfilling a pullback ending a pullback natural gas which really didn’t follow through despite that big 12 3/16 resistance and kind of still testing 316 which is a bicycle if recovered wasn’t very credible because of its still testing if they were going to recover 316 and trigger a Buy Signal really needed to be decisive and not just bouncing off of it at the clothes back within the pattern under the open it’s a little suspicious and even though closing at 12 yesterday would have been need to close until 3:10 today to establish that yesterday’s session not an anomaly but not indicative of or not preventative I should say I’ve actually resolving down to fulfill a retest of 277 6312 rejected and potentially so it’s not a short of breaking through the clothes this gap down testing 310 actually recovers Too Close back above 3/16 keep in mind today is actually closed back about 3:16 today and that’s it we won’t give sellers any credibility won’t be looking for trending back down will look for a bigger up leg underway but the likelihood is reversing back down to 3:10 and at least closing into this area thoroughly testing it caught 8989 20 must hold must hold 8989 to reverse backup to lease retest the high if not actually probit Euro flirting with its 1860 cell signal not rejecting its testLily extending down a little deeperthat sell signal requiring an eventual 3rd lower close which today is working on the pound which went on through all that brexit on-again-off-again noise or confusion fulfilled its 13450 Target very tight pull back limit 134 25 must hold through any clothes it’s not a cell signal otherwise but that is the end of the road if the pull back when I can’t hold otherwise potential to extend the rally and then the Aussie which fighting it for trying to come in for at least fill this week old Gap good luck today

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