The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2606.00 open was greeted at or above all prior highs, and avoided reversing down quickly. Not reversing down almost immediately all but disqualified reversing down at all, and defaulted to a setup that was likely to rally. That proved to be an understatement. The morning’s 2610.00 bias-up target  was met just as the bias environment began lapsing. Surging into and out of the noon hour reached within 2 points of its 2622.00 bias-up target before the N. Korea missile news triggered a drop. Being a knee-jerk reaction to news, the drop’s weak-handed sponsorship was doomed to failure. In fact, the afternoon bias environment exit was already rallying, and extended to 2627.00 into the final hour.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not even “shallow pullback” defines the overnight range’s lower-end, just 3 points under yesterday’s late highs. “Narrow range” barely applies, too, when much of it measured less than 2 points. But neither range nor pullback can be applied now, anyway. Europe’s opens were greeted by firming back up to yesterday’s highs. Consolidating there has just broken out to fresh highs, testing this morning’s 2628.50 bias-up signal by more than 1 point. A “new Globex trend extreme” has formed.

If, then…
Nothing prevents extending Tuesday’s rally without further delay. Either a slow start or a fast start would be credible. Backing-and-filling would be suspicious, especially so soon after a single-minded relentless session like yesterday has revealed an urgency. Shallow consolidations and gaps up that don’t trend intraday had defined the last consolidation, but now that price action would indicate weakness. The rally has room to test 2631.75, and potential up to 2657.25, so long as no pushback is encountered.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2631.75 would be likely to trigger the 2628.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2623.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays and Morning Market to her not much of a drawdown last night while waiting for your UPS opens just one more sign of optimism this shallow pull back nine and pull back consolidation reminiscent to some degree of some of the consolidation along the way to yesterday’s breakout rally at same breakout breakout huge rally Shallotte consolidations intraday trending being delivered mostly in the form of gapping up and very briefly rallying or falling through it all yesterday was a watershed moment in which states the cat was let out of the bag the game is revealed a lot of optimism optimism from a contrarian perspective can be bearish but only when it gets excessive this hasn’t proved to be excessive thanks to Kim jeong-hoon yesterday launching a missile at this spot in Japan’s see that he apparently does not like thanks to this reaction down here’s the knee-jerk reaction to the news here’s the follow-through being a jerk reaction and at some point it is retraced entirely with the greatest confidence in it coming eventually little if any confidence and where that comes from other we did have a good idea of a couple of spots one was or one opportunity was at 2615 that was attacked initially that was the afternoons biocept signal natural supported did produce about and then the deeper and deeper and that would have invalidated the bicep Target 2622 been put into place literally as much pressure as could have been expended was expended eventually didn’t have to be but was expended in the reaction to the headline we can get sponsorship just couldn’t be a better opportunity other than if the reaction up at least at least we traced itself before retracing too much you’re so much of the drop that it had to be already in recovery mode like to see a leg retraced the first reaction from a previous Trends extreme or traced by at least 38.2% if not 61.8% obviously that’s not a requirement to recover but it helps otherwise the nearest recovery signal isn’t trigger identifiable until the previous leg is actually which is where we ended up getting a 6:15 and it’s literally influential there is no requirement symmetrical triangle producer for reversing or substantially in the opposite direction not always but the point is that the game is clear to everyone called a short squeeze all in moment it is very obvious and so has to behave that wayand last night shows that it is still behaving that way a lot of money chasing or enough money chasing the market higherwithout a news item like a missile launch for instance that is what a consolidation looks like an optimistic environment and it can get overly optimistic you can get excessive and not be maintained and that’s the but will look for it the open before being able to get bearish that and also the overnight High because of the complexity yesterday’s highs 27 27 or 26 27 and there’s 26 27 and there’s the probe of yesterday’s high reaction down higher hi there’s complexity they’re not just a straight shot up to 26 28 50 and then back down under 26 27 for a separate surge above a rally above 27 this is complexity and being complex this is a new globe xtrend extreme that requires being retested intraday off in the same day the same day not always but that would be helpful to get out of the way it’s retest anyway but it still open before being able to become bearish otherwise and he shall or dip not necessary it’s not necessary to fill the Gap back to yesterday’s clothes yesterday is 2675 cash yesterday is what was the 26 basically Futures clothes not a 26-point 675 area interesting to get along with a relatively tight stop but otherwise 26-28 50 no requirement to trigger but it really ought to trigger bias up really ought to trigger if this rally is going to persist but we’ll be watching for any fresh eyes in the morning retest the overnight even test the signal signal is 3350 but touching 3175 or 31 and then reversing down under 2850 that’s a maybe a little too deep in the weeds and 15 minutes that’s one little set up really a function of how shallow the overnight the combination of the excessive optimism that produces that suddenly picks up where it left off the previous day and surging those are the relevant levels too and if 3131 75 15 minutes about 15 minutes another level 20 that would be quick set up a stroke until we see some sort of distributive action some sort of break under a very quickly those are the likely scenarios to Rally with the whole world knowing that everybody else is rushing into it shouldn’t back and fill shallow or rallying but no backing and filling to maintain the rallyand I will repeat it today we’re doing a little bit different to the back so I’m not skipping currencies just so you know we’re doing those last as I started to cover so many morewe’re going to get the currencies instead of currencies delay and getting everything else so silver and gold both flat to lower golden self held a test another test its pullback limit but also touched the structure that contains a gap outstanding it’s a couple of gaps one by proxy than by touching just the structure of Friday’s range that’s a couple of gaps that are filled From Below after having held there’s no excuse at this point to further delay resuming the rally if the rally intends to resume but if the morning develops without yet resuming the rally that is extending the franchise I’ll be raising Matt silver meanwhile stopping to sense optimistically short of actually feeling that outstanding Gap that it got back into the proximity of at 1670 which suggested really any attack on that level at this point is headed to 1650 long blonde which had already yesterday already had ample opportunity to extend a franchise and it’s just become distributive they never have though triggered a reaction down and never treated a reversal down and so that is that is maybe it’s hell that if there is this late in the game of a reaction down that it’s actually just a correction so the combination of the distribution but the congestion creating a mass that has a gravitational pull basically the combination suggest a change in ownership but not the weekends it could be from weekends to Stronger hands some sort of rubber band stretch is needed because clearly probes above resistance aren’t getting it done set a resume the rally some sort of dip find buyers down here get rid of the last bit of sellers of us because that all has to hold one 5353 doesn’t have to be touched preferably just 15320 would be tested on a pullback that that’s sufficient to stretch the rubber band so that it can snap back up but the distribution has remember needing to recover last Thursday basically 5815 decisively so preferably about Monday afternoon at 8:35 and yes I just didn’t do that it was ultimately not counting the overnight low or low that isn’t possible and still not or andteen is a bicycle if it’s recovered to the clubs that will say there’s something more substantial going on as opposed to but there’s something more substantial to the upside going on as opposed to still meeting to fill one or both gaps outstanding below probably both probably proba fresh low before a bottom a credible bottom forms so this is almost literally the well literally the biggest bounce possible you can see already overnight probing even higher 320 so this is literally as much if not more buying pressure that can be expanded without yet gaining traction only because it hasn’t been maintained through the clothes that’s the deciding factor back under 3:10 is here to get to but that is the inflection point especially closing under 3:10 would indicate that the bounce here had gotten ahead of itself trap Lawns momentum reversing Dale the objective being to retest good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The weekend was exited similar to how it was entered, probing new highs, but more choppily. Sunday night’s attack on 2604.50 had reacted down 7 points overnight before recovering entirely. Pre-open tests of 2604.50 reacted down nearly 5 points, and a post-open touch of 2605.50 reacted down nearly 8 points. Bouncing into the noon hour barely firmed coming out of it, as the afternoon ranged very narrowly around unchanged at the 2601.75 opening print. The week began a little differently than it was ended, leaving “unfinished business below” at the morning’s 2596.50 bias objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
For the second consecutive night, both bias signals have been touched. And in the same order. The Globex open spiked down from the afternoon’s 2600.50-2601.75 narrow range and extended to touch this morning’s 2597.50 bias-down signal. Its retest was reversed up and has extended relentlessly to touch the 2605.00 bias-up signal, hesitating at yesterday’s highs, now 3-5 points into positive territory.

If, then…
Touching both bias signals overnight again suggests intraday action will try trending. Not only touching either bias signal but also probing it, regardless of whether done early enough or for long enough to trigger. If the open is still testing bias-up as currently indicated, then triggering it is a little more likely since it held its test yesterday, since sequentially similar setups tend to resolve differently.  Pulling back to greet the open only firmer would still likely be attracted by a retest of yesterday’s highs. Trending down this morning is less likely without already greeting the open back in negative territory, or else stretching the rubber band much more to the upside too quickly to attract reinforcements.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2602.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2605.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it is time for this morning’s Tuesday Morning Market to her okay so member of the most interesting feature to Sunday night’s trading as it applied to yesterday’s open in the morning if not the session that was that the overnight range had touched both bias parameters pre-open so the low actually touched 25 9650 which was the bias down signal for the morning not otherwise relevant until 10:15 at least addictive until 10:15 about 12 hours earlier so not predicted but still it support that’s why it’s breakthrough 10:15 would have been so relevant to the downside same thing for the open 60453 Relevant resistance exceeding it or not there 10:15 if they even tested Post open to 10:15 that would be predicted but meanwhile it is resistance so it’s predicted or it’s influential that is by touching overnight that told us that the market is opinionated interested in expressing its opinion not dying on the vine or like Friday for instance last night has done the same thing now and this morning that it would actually one of the other but not as a little bit this morning if in fact the open is testing one of the way but still open is actually greater likelihood of resolving differently than yesterday which would mean either triggering bias up or as you can see there was quite a consolidation around the bicep signal yesterday morning until the environment this morning the alternative is likely to trim down as opposed to waiting so one of the other very early this morningor at least likely if opening at the one other possibility actually pretty normalfinish pre open application to extend higher so that we actually greet the openhire or Post open immediately search actually test or attack the bias of Target 2610 and do so so quickly that reinforcements don’t arrive and the morning plunges collapses at least back to unchanged but we are going to have a cell signal we open basically around by us up signal we’re going to have a cell signal at play at all times okay other markets he came back down to this corrective bicycle remember this just correct the bounce having left unfinished business below after testing one potential Peak yesterday by the pound little bit further overnight not really enough to not really enough yet to confirm momentum is reversing down basically the rally from last week’s low to yesterday’s opening has potential to recover without actually rejecting that bounce but overnight not exactly holding that 7820 is holding through the open or so long as bounce back into positive territory where to develop after testing 7820 that would be at this point positive for at least a retest of the high probably more substantial up like but that’s the point now is closed positive that was just being challenged 24 hours ago confirmed under the actual signal signal broke But continuing to soften that’s the minimum objective of the bicycles and it’s tested tested and retested need to get out of 9042 suggest or signal actually something more substantial update copper I was just testing lower prioritize with this Gap outstanding above that wants to be tested wants to be filled From Below wouldn’t know without closing under 311 Down 311 maybe a little nine so if this is just a temporary to test these lower prioritize the upper end of this range which is being tested now so there’s a bullish scenario that allows this current test the 307 area to hold07today preferably close back about 3:11 today if not tomorrow meanwhile silver 1695 is support has the potential to close actually close above 1711 and triggered up leg gold as long as it holds 12 93939 350th support has the potential to exploit yesterday’s rally which otherwise is a little suspicious because that Gap back to the prior Friday’s close that was filled the height of its structure that was proved both held through the close of the test session today yesterday so there really isn’t any excuse or much room or time for any backing and filling if yesterday was a valid break out it should be fairly obvious that should be very obvious going into the noon hour at the latest not creating optimism here behaving more distributive late 153 but hole magnetic attraction to the 134 even if we knew it with complete certainty that this pattern and having ranged nearly and narrowing here for so long some sort of dip attacking if that touching 153 stretching the rubber band so I can snap backup becomes likelier and likelier crude oil not so much of the fullback the likelihood and probably to 6160 105 Natural Gas 306 reliably with 277 outstanding 2605 clearly irrelevant level

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The pre-Thanksgiving volume contraction had its usual effect, albeit more so on narrowing the range, and less so the volatility within it. The morning’s 2600.00 bias-up signal was touched by a pre-open surge. But only attacking it post-open avoided an offsetting test of its bias-down signal being put into play. The overnight low was eventually probed by 3 ticks down to 2593.75. Firming into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes held repeated tests of a buy signal above 2597.50, before a last-minute 3-4 drop into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Potential down to 2591.75 had been left unresolved — not required to be met, and not required to be met intraday. Although not “unfinished business below,” it was met during a drop to 2589.50 triggered by slowing economic numbers from China. Its test coincided with Europe’s opens, which apparently had a different sentiment in mind. A rally extended relentlessly until recovering back up to Wednesday afternoon’s highs at 2598.00. Enthusiasm cooled with U.S. exchanges being closed. Thursday night’s Globex was initially choppy, dipping to 2594.00 and bouncing up to 2598.50. That all changed two hours ago, as a break higher extended to new highs attacking 2602.00. Its brief consolidation just produced a blip-up that pierced 2602.00 momentarily.

If, then…
Will the open be greeted by the indicated gap up to new highs? That would resemble Tuesday’s open, which had gapped up to 2590.50 and extended to test its 2600.00 target. That doesn’t make gapping up again more likely to extend higher, and perhaps makes extending higher less likely. Similar setups don’t tend to resolve similarly when they appear sequentially. A trend’s sponsorship evolves over time, as it attracts reinforcements. Identical behavior often means older sponsorship is acting alone, which is difficult to sustain. Tuesday and Friday’s opens aren’t exactly sequential, separated by Wednesday night’s interim dip to relevant support. But unusual trading hours make the setups sequential enough. And today’s briefer session, impending weekend, and thin holiday crowd only make it more difficult to attract sponsorship. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to attract, too. So, this morning’s opening direction might be predictive of the entire session. Not gapping up could be bullish if its post-open action were attracted back up to the overnight high.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2600.75 would be likely to trigger the 2598.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2596.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Market or it’s a shorter session by a couple of hours couple 3 hours just threw 115 actually for futures and so there’s some interesting interesting influences interesting influencers that are missing interesting influences that are impacting the day or potentially impacting the day likely impacting the day along with the usual Friday factors Friday factors being function of today’s impending illiquidity behaviour change their influence by that the holidays bullish seasonality here we are told you all about it last week week plus looking for the potential of any kind of significant significant drawdown and that significant drawdown needing to it worked its way into the market by Monday at the latest and after that would have little chance of appearing or if trying to appear of succeeding and then that of course being a function of thinner trading because this is really the middle of what a lot of Traders and stretch out into a five-day holiday or longer so not that their participation of those particular participants missing or that those particular participants are the ones responsible for producing trending but they help liquidity and bigger traders that are responsible for producing trending if they are around or wanted to be wouldn’t want to be dipping into that market not aggressively of Center Center crowd dinner volume there liquidity so let’s see how that’s going to have an effect on what has happened since Wednesday volume or is it already before well before that back into the range this seems to be related toto curtail or to publicly say they’re curtailing production and that tells crude oil as we’ll see in a moment and don’t see the same aggression and crude oil at the same time as we’ll see you in a moment so not necessarily directly tied or only tied to that but in any case it’s produced a fresh I prioritize prioritize our being probed prioritize prioritize 2600 area there is that dip corrective dip right up to uptrending support recovery of the recovery relative to the prior highs that’s pessimism pessimism is Alive and Well in this market alive and sporadically so when it doesn’t stay well but that pessimism and from a perspective Behavior at least optimistic Behavior because that’s what the pessimism was indicating could come which is why that was bullish but now we’ve got a different situation this morning’s open as indicated to Gap up back 2 or 3 size Like Mondays open which gapped up to Android through relevant highs and rallied to the date of that was 2600 all of the different influences today sequential setups tend not to resolve similarly this isn’t the most sequential setup that we could or the most sequential order that we could see because there are a day or two in between Monday’s Gap up that extended higher and I’m sorry did I say Monday I meant Tuesday Tuesday’s Gap up that extended a day or two in between there’s the holiday influence there but the fact is the rule that similar setups 10 not to resolve similarly not always the case but the rule is that sponsorship as it attracts reinforcements if a similar action is being displayed sequentially so in other words same area possibly the product of the same sponsorship that’s why they need then that is reinforcements and that will be able to extend up but if reinforcements haven’t been attracted then the rally won’t extend then we’ll know because the rally will be the Gap up will be being rejected it’s difficult lower volume fewer hours and pending weekendbut if it’s just as easily to recover easier totwo probe new high so it’s one of the other through the open the opens resolution trending up or trending down and you can see which way this is trying to try to resolve maybe not even the Gap up at all but just open in the range and that could be the one opportunity leaving an overnight High not a new club ex-friend extreme but an overnight high that wants to be were tested anyway that could be the one possibility to attract price higher and maybe catapulted or Ricochet at that is slingshot it to higher highs will it be open closer to the open because it’s too close to prioritize and unresolved which saved Itself by extending higher as it did last time that it was about to but that was facing a bearish setup or potentially bearish resolution has been maintained Euro which by being very shallow he became likely or unlikely test this gap-to-gap up to last Wednesday’s open that’s been done now that was done in fact overnight and exceeded being seated 2 1 1890 so challenging and probing actually the Pryor High member that’s going to be difficult to maintain Post open and if it is then that’s potentially bullish Tuesday and Wednesday was the save that wasn’t so much as the test that is a Tuesday’s support didn’t have to resolve it but it has extended a little bit for correcting that has to extend iron today if it’s now it is recovering pound on its way and then the Aussie or trying to Silver and Gold pretty much major disappointments again in that not so much silver which it held 1711 didn’t actually recover it his dip back down to 1695 instead of closing decisively above 1711 or remaining in position to close decisively above 1711 gold which had come in with its own clothes but 1285 again still needing a second which that been lacking last Friday doesn’t seem to be on the verge of that when its immediate reaction overnight was the dip and after recovering 61.8% at least his retesting the dip slow something powerful Post open will be needed to even at potential for the weekend aggression but not I don’t think but anywayandDora having probed lower overnight not rejecting that so I coming back to the long blonde gold itself is been a major tease the long body as well but these probes above 15041 to 5402 these intraday probes and now once again for tracing the test 1 5402 so is it really broken out going to need two consecutive are closes to even suggest that that’s underway finishing up here with this extra little activity could turn out to be a consolidation kind of resembles a head and shoulders very small scale and that could allow a little dip to open lower and be attracted back to the overnight high and resume the rally just know that Thanksgiving Friday if there is any direction it can persist so be careful stepping in front of anything that is under way out of you after the open is established to Direction more so today than any other day

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Typical pre-Thanksgiving volume and volatility contraction wasn’t yet influential early Tuesday when the Globex session rallied very late. Its 10-point surge greeted Tuesday’s open gapping up to week-old “unfinished business above” at 2590.50. The open’s surge also probed a gap on the way to new highs above 2596.00 where trending stopped. A late-afternoon blip-up probed 2600.00 which the open had targeted just for having held above 2590.50. The blip-up’s reaction down formed a “failed Ascending Triangle” that dipped further into the 2596.00-2598.00 close. No unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late dip extended initially down to 2594.50. A surge up to 2599.25 was retraced down to 2596.00, which has been holding multiple tests as support since midnight. Only now is another surge piercing the 2599.25 high.

If, then…
The failed Ascending Triangle at yesterday’s highs usually measures out its reversal down to either 2591.75 or 2588.25. It usually completes a correction, then recovers to resume the prevailing trend. But the relatively shallow pullback of this instance may not have refueled sufficiently to break above yesterday’s high. Evaporating volume already makes it difficult to attract sponsorship for trending higher. The afternoon’s impending FOMC Minutes tends to inhibit trending, too. And there’s no “unfinished business above” to attract price higher, anyway. So, yesterday’s high is likely to hold if retested — a retest that isn’t even likely unless trending up already through the open. Backing-and-filling this morning is likelier, until proved otherwise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2597.50 is unlikely to trigger the 2600.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or not a lot going on overnight and quite possibly not a lot going on today although I wouldn’t discount potential for one pattern which is basically an attempt to Rally that fails and spends the rest of the day basically trending back down maybe just backing and filling which is a way of saying gradually retraced in yesterday’s rally maybe in fits and starts that has accelerated steeper legs and then extended consolidations before turning down with got two influences pretty big influences more like restraints then positive or an attractive influences what is this is the holiday or the travel day for tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday so a lot of volume disappears also this is even though we’ve got a low-volume day ahead this is this afternoon that is going to have the fomc minutes released and price to be inhibited so really all the action is likely to be this morning and maybe a flurry of it this afternoon after the news I would imagine that based on past such a limited universe of the examples based on past similar setups when there is something in a low-volume afternoon like a Friday afternoon and it even if it is responsive it’s temporary so there’s a chance that we will be having the market wrap early I just to account for no reason really to stick around apart from that though this morning there is yesterday’s high as high at 2605 requirement to exceed it 60153 and there’s no it was never put into play or pretty close to it but yesterday did for sending triangle that broke and failed and tried to resume and fail that’s a fail descending triangle typically a failed ascending triangle and we’ll pull back a lot deeper than this did it’s not a very wide pattern to begin with it’s measurements for a normal pullback or 25 9175 and possibly 8825 so one of the things that contributed to the false breakout was the shallowness of the consolidation you know there’s not a lot of pull back there there’s not a lot of shorts being trapped not a lot of shorts to squeeze to help fuel to break out not a lot of pessimism so from a prospective not a lot of disk proof to cover before disproving that very shallow pessimism so that could undermine to the break out of town overnight shallow could be just another version of the same problem to shallow middle levels don’t have to be the same but the principal is and that is not enough pessimism stopping pessimistic or optimistic Lee Short that is not even optimistically short of it just literally half the distance of a normal measurement for the pull back and it typically is a bullish pattern once it gets past its pull back they all descending trianglesvolumeproduced a deeper pull back as well it’s not a matter of volume in this case it’s a very shallow pull back if the rally can resume at before the open if you’re already testing the eyes if something similar to yesterday’s open in principle again it’s a little different set-up but if the prior hi just like yes he’s open was testing 2590 50 2590 50 having been unfinished business above retesting just the prior high that was that the calculable level 25 1950 was unfinished business and open it was open so that was even if it was highly doubtful if it was highly doubtful we know if it was exceeded it would Target 2600 but similar than in principle is yesterday’s high only yesterday’s I if that succeeded through the open more power to it will give monitor for failure again because of the shallow pullback that hasn’t really were fueled buyers but otherwise the burden of proof is on buyers and there’s still an opportunity to just resumed yesterday’s break lower back and if not actually 92-88 maybe lower be careful with the volume legs can get weird legs can disappear any questions please let me know in order to resume or have a credible break higher meanwhile if that can’t get done presumably it doesn’t have an apple relatively soon then we are going to look for what 1860 out of balance and then the Yen Consolidated yesterday Monday if it’s a correction of Friday’s break it doesn’t get any further I wouldn’t tolerate not so much a surge with silver is not very productive productive gold all the way back up to itsilver the very choppy in a Range but not very predictable e Long Pond had a great opportunity yesterday and greeted the open having probed prioritize it did prove even higher highs in the morning and it only went out testing 154 that actually closing above it or at least still overlapping it so it will be forwarded 402 that’s still the level it needs to be recovered through the clothes decisively and then confirmed on the second consecutive higher close in order to indicate that the Rally’s resuming the consolidation is even breaking higher that 153 can be avoided none of that has happened overnight instead dipping back down to the lower end of this range and breaking an eternal uptrending support So burden of proof is definitely on Byers and the long one crude oil API released yesterday this morning the objective has always been to retest this this couple weeks ago which very well it’s just a voice as having potential and it didn’t didn’t close under the morning slow the next open didn’t break lower by proxy to complete that pattern and by default it created an attraction could have broken higher extended higher the ongoing shallowness of the consolidation suggested that if there were a break higher it would be unstable base to try and extend higher the bullish or the rally that is has preserved its bullishness by instead correcting and really hung on by the skin of its teeth here as we say in the states what’s 5555 cell signal / pull back limit and now has recovered 5656 the objective being a little bit ago presumably momentum Natural Gas that’s even more difficult then we already know that very happy safe and healthy Thanksgiving good luck today

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s flat-to-higher open 2577.00-2580.25 isolated a deep overnight probe into negative territory. The detour had held two tests of Monday morning’s bias-down target, before recovering the bias-down signal. If developed post-open, that setup would have targeted tests of both bias-up parameters. When isolated overnight, it’s usually reliable for testing at least the morning’s bias-up signal. In fact, eking higher into the afternoon finally blipped-up 2 ticks to touch the morning’s 2584.00 bias-up signal. The final hour dipped back down to test the open’s range as support.

Overnight action’s new info…
It took a long time for last night’s ranging to resolve. Yesterday afternoon’s 2583.50 highs had rejected a blip-up by reversing down to test 2580.25. The pullbck’s low was tested repeatedly overnight, and its reactions only attacked yesterday afternoon’s highs. This persisted through Europe’s opens before finally launching a rally. Extending up to 2588.00 resistance and through it has now touched the 2590.50 “unfinished business above” that was left outstanding last week.

If, then…
Monday’s final hour dip came too late for its counter-trend sponsorship to be strong-handed. Even if it had been more productive than only dipping down to test 2580.25, it still was likely to be recovered. As noted throughout yesterday and summarized during Market Wrap, only gapping down today could derail a retest of last week’s highs and higher. Fulfilling that retest this morning was likely to start by trending up overnight. But having trended up overnight to already fulfill the minimum objective at resistance does risk a morning dip. Rallies often exploit newly created room that allows expending selling pressure without reversing the trend. Pre-holiday volume is starting to suffer, making it difficult to attract buyers much beyond than short-covering. It is similarly difficult to attract counter-trend sponsorship as volume evaporates, so not reject last week’s highs could find the short-squeeze being very productive.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2588.00 would be likely to trigger the 2584.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2582.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to her little bit of a rally overnight may be stealing the wind from the sails of the recovery what does that mean actually full feeling the recovery subjective it’s what we’ve been looking for was a retest of last week’s High last week’s High afternoon had triggered a bias up it’s Target being 25 9050 which was only meant to within 4 tix I know it’s just a Tick’s worth difference but we don’t neutralize the attraction unless it’s been met to within one tick unless it’s new I knew it wasn’t here stop stop pessimistically short last week’s I did stop pessimistically short of filling outstanding Gap and that orbit it did touch the structure that contained that Gap back to the week old the prior Wednesday’s close so there was a pat down but the immediate reaction didn’t do anything that justified extending down the immediate past down really just alleviated a relieved overbought condition that have been created off of Thursday’s rally and then some member before yesterday’s open which bullishly isolated the probe under Friday’s Lowe’s isolated it to the overnight that’s bullish testing the overnight and held a couple tests expended a lot of over but has been relieved and now like any corrective Rally or any correction actually in this case rally last Thursday’s and now the overnight Gap up these are aggressive moves easier in patient and they tend to reflect weekends because weekends can’t back and feel they can’t keep me late there’s been no accumulation down here little bit of a base but not actually when we the point being that and by the way that doesn’t have to be the end of the road even in the Rio 2590 50 doesn’t have to be the end of the road here last week’s retested itself being an attack on the prior week size where there is an overnight I have to 9450 that hasn’t been tested intra-day and often is at some point and by the way if this were tested there is already sufficient pull back and refueling and room for noise above the two-week-old High to justify probing 2600 maybe only by three ticks but 2600 so so long as the open is able to maintain above the prioritize maintain above resistance that’s the objective is 2600 today otherwise the downside by not maintaining the Gap up or maintained by actually touching it doesn’t have to be now officially since it was touched overnight at least helpful to neutralizing the attraction3050 this morning which is this morning’s biocept Target if that’s touched and not exceeded the 10:15 then the bias up will have held not in itself bearish but at this stage of this pattern not bearish isn’t necessarily Bush it does not necessarily enough to keep momentum alive especially when it’s a gap up and not intraday trading intraday trending can attract sponsorship gapping up that’s overnight buyers and they’re not looking to add as we get through the morning they’re looking to get out putting pressure on the market so it’s going to be a battle between profit-taking and short squeeze short-covering it’s difficult as volume starts disappearing ahead of the oncoming holiday weekend effectively a four-and-a-half 5 Day weekend Timmy difficult attracting new sponsorship it’s also difficult attracting sponsorship and that’s why he hasn’t rejected the Gap up will give buyers every benefit of the doubt that we’re heading to 2600 otherwise 585 becomes likely the only scenario is this literally looks like this it’s almost drawn to scale in degree and in timing almost it looks like that the open attracts buying doesn’t it just doesn’t get the sponsorship the reinforcements that are needed at least maintain the Gap up 2580 450 the signal which in the block is represented like this the bicep of 8450 if maintain through 10:15 would put into play which is already tested but it would be put into play 2550 is 2600 test of one or both testes objectives comes into play is aggressive so be careful being too trusting and it recovering it doesn’t have to will have ended or at least will be corrected right now that’s resistance until recovered enclosing back under 7540 with resume the decline the pound has two consecutive bumping up against resistance 3285 3190 holding but it is only what had been the Buy Signal level 78 n1705 7810 Thursday or Wednesday before closing under 1 1760 to retest and lowerand the yen is well which had restarted its own rally never really rejected it just had a moment of Crisis that was recovered by closing above recovering actually 8880 88-82 that’s been requested here there’s no tolerance for that failing to hold his supporters could be a pretty quick unwind. 88 yes 8880 fails to hold silver and gold just all over the place never got confirmation didn’t get confirmation a second cuz I give her a close to this is silver to Friday’s break out so very vulnerable as any fresh break at is and that was really on display yesterday reacting back down through the pull back limit back down through Fridays Lowe’s really back to it last week’s was anything lower anything lower it says that this whole recovery is done that 1650 is in play really need to recover 1711 at least 1705 that’s 1711 to overcome this like down gold similarly didn’t confirm its break out before Breaking Bad testing and support recovery 1285 and another shot and a pretty reliable and there’s some nuances to that I’d want to look at the time but otherwise from this vantage point we can at least say back of a 1285 tends to be bullish. Yesterday Sunday night actually above 154 by signal 5404 and then the corrective bounce limit and it hasn’t been rejected so we suspect that it’s chipping away at its resistance but alas 153 is broken there’s potential to resume this recovery and Recovery becomes a rally last night also above last week’s highs above 150 412-5402 overlap last week when December for multiple sessions keeping alive the potential for recovering this week about 58 so closing Friday 5620 was the first suggestion that that move was underway yesterday didn’t fill the Gap back to Thursday before recovering to close by 5625 to confirm crime 5685 to confirm that recovery is underway in natural gas and a warning at the anchor it’s not a recovery above the you can definitely see a difference in Attitudebut it’s the connector that must be recovered through the clothes it is resistance and if it’s not recoveredthe reversal is not succeeding it could succeed otherwise with more work being done to establish a better bottom but that attempt has failed and so Monday did reflect that buy gapping back down but also held support needed a closed under 304 to indicate the leg was reversing down extending down that if this trend was extending otherwise 306 it was that type of a range closing either way would be productive and neither one was triggered closing out a way would have said the next recovery attempt was already underway dipping a little bit lower overnight still have potential to hold but it’s not a very attractive stage of that pad alright any questions please go ahead and post them in the chart room and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

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