The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s fresh highs up to 2446.50 were retraced to essentially unchanged at 2441.00-2442.00. Thursday’s opening bounce to 2445.00 retraced only 61.8% of the overnight highs before failing. Failing from some level was likely since Wednesday’s setup had required gapping up Thursday to extend its rally. Its failure was too late to avoid triggering bias-up, but in time to invalidate it, reversing down sharply to 2439.00. Nevertheless, overnight highs were recovered during the noon hour, and probed briefly during the final hour, closing at the morning’s 2445.00 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
An eventual blip-up pierced yesterday’s highs to touch this morning’s 2447.25 bias-up signal. Its immediate reaction down eventually extended back to 2442.00. Now its reaction is testing yesterday morning’s 2445.00 high.

If, then…
The 2451.50 prior high and its “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 are easily met this morning, if the market wants. If the market wants to reveal the rally’s strength — either by closing above prior highs on a Friday to entrench itself, or to fail a probe of prior highs as sponsorship disappears. Restrained optimism that only firms shallowly into the weekend could be bullish if prior highs are only attacked and not touched. But actual pessimism of dipping back to and through yesterday’s lows would chip away at their support, since yesterday’s highs had failed to extend — not necessarily avoiding new highs next week, but dooming them to failure.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2443.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2447.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2442.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2439.75 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour quick reminder tomorrow is a Saturday review I hope you can join us at 9:30 Eastern just like any other than Market open without the market open distraction as for today basically I’m going to do a little deeper analysis than that but essentially this Market is at a Crossroads and it’s not a Crossroads yet that says we’re heading up or down from here to hear it is a Crossroads that says the next action dictates whether the ultimate resolution is up or down what I mean is we have a Breakout does the bigger picture going back months on the es we have a break out yesterday or I’m sorry two days ago from a downtrend it wasn’t invalidated was it the multi-session break out so it doesn’t really get confirmation other than to maintain its momentum other than if it’s not invalidated there is a objective than in play Dora trace the entirety of that down track that’s the reward clear and simple for having broken that downtrend and not rejecting the break of the downtrend nothing about that speaks to the path we can know it 100% degree of certainty if we could that we’re going to at some point retest the high of this pull-back three week old High more so is that possible to do today absolutely there isn’t any single day in this to climate doesn’t contain a intraday move that if duplicated today would get us wouldn’t get us above that Pryor High you should be easy if the market or the rally that is wants to do that so the question is and add the resolution would likely be up accumulation in other words there are varying degrees but in general accumulation and that would be distribution to probe the prior high without closing above it and if the rally wanted to let us know that it intends to extend well it would be free to do that as I say being so close to the prior High on Wednesday to avoid if 39 is touched we’re probably heading to 3550 and remember there’s down there’s room down to 33 without reversing the trend down so sorry to take so long and I was like a Saturday review itself but we literally have Matrix of for possibilities here at a Crossroads and coin flip among the four four sided coin flip alright other markets like giving it to 92293 to complete a bottom or try to complete a bottom of that that needs to hold and react up of course that yesterday’s eia report prevented perhaps doing but only temporarily now overnight action is doing that overnight the Gap attacked close enough if the market wants to go with that and if this point bounce back above 3302 they won’t be any unfinished business with outstanding below any questions good luck today.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Fed chair Yellen stole her own thunder by pre-releasing her embargoed opening remarks before Wednesday’s open. The 8-point surge greeted the open at 2435.50, and extended another 8 points through the first hour to attack 2443.00. Eventually adding another point in the afternoon was too late to gain traction, and reacted down 4 points into the 2441.00 close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly sideways, centered around 2442.00. That’s where Europe’s opens were greeted, which triggered a surge that extended to fresh highs at 2446.50. The surge reacted down almost as abruptly, and soon entirely, back to 2442.00 which is being tested now.

If, then…
The attraction above at 2433.00 had room up to 2435.50 before becoming attracted to new highs above 2454.00. Wednesday’s open and rally above 2435.50 now puts into play new highs, so long as Thursday’s close is not back under 2433.00. These bullish parameters don’t preclude Thursday from backing-and-filling, so long as 2433.00 holds as support through the close. Even probing intraday under 2433.00 could recover to maintain the rally. Having said all that, the morning can extend the rally so long as the open were to maintain a gap up above yesterday’s highs. Having tried already overnight, we know there is potential for extending the rally this morning even without gapping up, but we would expect its reversal if not begun by gapping up… Be sure to listen to my comments on the Market Tour recording about trading Yellen’s Senate testimony.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2444.00 would be likely to trigger the 2442.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2439.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour so pretty good rally yesterday it was actually it was productive meeting that It produced some relevant developments on the chart it was the product of a couple things 1 is we were looking for fresh eyes anyway not the 2428 had to be tested and it already been to it was an attraction created Tuesday morning that Tuesday’s Raleigh stop short of got ambushed by the email dump but was eventually already tested within 3 tips which neutralizes the attraction so didn’t have to be tested it was going to be tested if sellers never regained control or until they did and I didn’t and that’s where at 8:30 at 2428 yelland surprised the market with a 90-minute premature dump of our own of ever opening remarks she was going to give at the house portion of our two-day Congressional testimony Senate is today surprise the market caught them off-guard which doesn’t mean anything it wasn’t going to do it may have different pattern different time and actually open at what would have been and extended chopped doing so actually tear out some resistance about doesn’t mean it’s going to be maintained in fact I will be looking for a failure of any morning rally if it doesn’t Begin by the opening 15 minutes maintaining a gap up above us a size there’s no requirements which was yesterday’s clothes even though they’re pulling back a little bit deeper now to change if the open if the open is already rallying even if it’s trying to get up up above yesterday’s highest we’re not going to take that with a hundred percent degree of certainty get out of the open maintaining a gap up above that goes a long way to be able to resume the rally today but otherwise be on guard for back any questions please on Tuesday or this morning Wednesday tender 4490 wood Target at least 4340 that is that what is now lower prioritize of the consolidation at the Lowe’s if not something deeper into that range is lighting a little bit but it hasn’t yet broken under 4490 and then natural gas which reported .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening test its 2421.50 bias-down signal had held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2428.00 bias-up signal. Just 2 points away from the objective, a political headlines triggered a 16-point plunge to attack 2410.00. As knee-jerk reactions to headlines are sponsored by weak hands, its complete retracement was likely. The afternoon bias environment fulfilled it, and the final hour came within 3 ticks of 2428.00 to fulfill that objective, too. Closing action reacted down to 2423.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming initially to 2426.50 was retraced to retest Tuesday’s late 2423.00 low by 2 ticks. Ranging there narrowly at the lows began firming at Europe’s opens. That has since extended to fresh highs testing 2428.00. Consolidating there has resolved up to resume the rally.

If, then…
More thoroughly testing 2428.00 relevant resistance doesn’t make extending higher any more assured. But fresh highs remain likely because the recent repeated tests of relevant support all have recovered during relevant timing windows. Fresh highs need not become a new upleg to new highs, but exceeding 2433.00-2435.50 through a relevant window would make new highs likely, too. .

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2429.00 would be likely to trigger the 2428.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning market tour not a lot going on last night not until your abs opens which basically took us from yesterday’s last pull back testing yet and tested it overnight repeatedly firming and accelerating and extending to 2428 and then hire 2428 by the way just as a reminder was yesterday afternoon’s bar yesterday morning by step signal and offsetting test if it had been put into play by holding a test of the bias down signal in the morning and we were two points away when the Trump dump or Trump jr. dub doing your anyway emerged and Trigger this huge plunge need jerk reaction so I need your reactions airlines are by definition sponsored by we can some headlines are deserving of it of staying down this one we even though it was pretty substantial to prove the bias down Target recovered the biased and Target through by before the bias down I’m sorry before the bias environment so that the mornings Target remained in play for intact required to be met didn’t have to be met the same day but it was it was that is within three tix which neutralizes it that’s close enough it is hand grades and Hand Grenades and horseshoes to some degree two or three ticked agree but in case it’s been tested overnight and now trying to exceed it and it’s the bias of signal this morning if it’s triggered it to play 23 which by the way was from a couple Mondays ago last Monday the July 4th weekend section 2433 3550 those two levels are in the sink and her two levels of the singular representation that one pattern but 33 is the higher price 3550 cross that threshold and we’re headed in even higher and even though there’s resistance along the way heading higher means probably new highs 2454 and higher plenty of upside potential even if we knew that I don’t agree that we’re going to be fulfilled that we were going to resolve that doesn’t has been testing supports Windows and it was probed overnight now the next hour gap 7675 essentially and play likely to be tested anyway pound not really taking seriously yesterday’s peeking lower even a lower low overnight but if that doesn’t prove this morning that it’s only stretching the rubber band and another word start snapping back up I’ll take it seriously Gap at standing to Monday’s close by yesterday’s Gap Town doesn’t have to be filled because the Gap was created by opening with in Tuesday with in Monday’s range so there is no unfinished business of up in the loony it is free to extend down interesting triangle forming in light of that and the gyro which and let too much time elapsed since neutralizing its upside and not reversing down made new high as likely it’s just a default and so the new highest measured out to 151 150 but 115es right 11510 11525 tested yesterday tested no more thoroughly overnight need to close above it indicate any more substantial rallying instead of just a reaction down silver couple consecutive articles about 55-60 say that a bottom is trying to form doesn’t have to have formed reaction down is possible some sort of reversal down or attempt to sell off his possible what are we been to overnight 1493 Tire Pros that’s a good opportunity to try to react down to form a more durable bottom gold for overnight as well kind of eating its way higher it really does .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Testing 2429.00 Sunday night was retraced back under Friday’s 2425.00 high, and then back under its 2421.50 last relative low. All before the open. Isolating the probe above Friday’s high to the overnight did reflect weak-handed buyers. But testing the prior low down to 2419.25 was recovered through the open to prevent momentum from reversing down. Bouncing through the afternoon attacked the overnight high, and momentarily probed it up to 2430.00. But it was reversed back down to test Friday’s 2425.00 through the close. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open Initially dipped slightly deeper to 2422.50. Firming gradually and relentlessly attacked this morning’s 2428.00 bias-up signal before Europe’s opens. Reacting down from its retest has extended lower, now piercing the initial low by 3 ticks to attack this morning’s 2421.50 bias-down signal.

If, then…
Monday’s was testing Friday’s 2425.00 high instead of breaking under it decisively. Extending under 2424.00 through the futures close was too late to be predictive, too. The overnight bounce was too shallow for restarting the setup so that another dip could gain traction, unless the open is quickly breaking back under yesterday’s opening low through 2419.25. Trending up would all but require gapping up above Monday’s highs, which isn’t indicated or even threatened.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2428.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2421.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2418.00 would likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s morning market tour not a lot of news overnight not market-related at least and that maybe the Rally’s problem we’re really going to say I cannot stick as far as the open with the open needs to do there’s really only a couple things that it will there’s a lot of things of mine too but as far as being predictive you know there was this late looking back here at yesterday afternoon there was a late break hire that didn’t gain traction time I did buy a single-bar exceed its 3 minute high but it was a fresh eye itself so it doesn’t require being extended it didn’t actually put into play the next higher objective at 2433 or to the degree that it did it was offset overruled and validated by the brake lower so there’s no higher objective outstanding it’s our size word simultaneously oversold so there’s no unfinished business after couple of days first of all Fridays Gap up it was too shallow to gain traction but Friday factors prevented or hibited Sellers from coming in and got a little bit higher into the closer to the afternoon didn’t really bounced adzzup was attacked with it a tick last night 2150 is the bias down sitting on if it triggers and triggers and if it triggers it has every bit of credibility to extend down 2150 s break the bias down signal would have support obligatory support at Friday mornings High’s lower paralyzed and 1750 but then there’s that Gap retest retest Thursdays that’s required but a probe under it that would be likely if not the fresh Lowe’s 2399 2393 a lot of up but it all depends on and but this this path basically up and then back down that seems to be in play here Trinity having traded down to 4386 not yet a fresh low on this way it’s this pattern back here that needs to be your tested at least two its upper and lower prioritize 4340 like we are just a little bit deeper into it that’s where a bottom can start to form or finish for me a natural gas the Gap back because it was created by gapping up with in French to .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped up 6 points to 2414.00 in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. Attempts at extending were resisted twice by 2417.50 as the morning ranged choppily sideways. Breaking higher through the bias environment exit extended through Thursday’s 2421.50 high up to 2425.00. The afternoon bias environment ranged narrowly back down to Thursday’s 2421.50 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night soon broke through Friday’s 2425.00 high on the way up to 2429.00. Only 3-minute RSI diverged negatively, but the reaction has probed back under Friday’s 2425.00 highs down to 2423.00.

If, then…
If Friday’s optimism of gapping up and extending higher was not rejected intraday. Sunday night’s immediate extension doesn’t validate it by proxy, unless it enables Monday’s open to gap up above levels that Friday’s open and rally had failed to recover. That doesn’t seem to be in-play currently. If the optimism will was ineffectual then its rally only stretched the rubber band tighter to launch the next move down more aggressively. Having probed overnight above the prior session’s highs, exiting the open under the earlier 2422.00 Globex lows would be likely to trend down, confirming the rubber band is snapping back. Otherwise, not yet trending down out of the open would keep open the potential for retesting overnight highs this morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2426.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s market Rabbit actually past time for Monday’s Mark and wrapped we are getting a little late start today someone of a positive Divergence here one minute and 3 minute are size into this low that is now performing back at unchanged essentially and only three minute are inside virgin negatively at the high back at this unchanged essentially unchanged level after having probed higher overnight and not by a little not noise there’s complexity there you can see the definition of running correction like pattern and then I are high that is complexity and that says it’s not just noise and since it’s not just noise and it’s probing up with that is probing above the prior sessions High he have the earlier portion of the other night sessions low isn’t held if it’s broken through the open that is a 9:45 if I having probed above Friday’s High overnight with complexity the earlier low is broken momentum will of reverse down this will basically act as somewhat of a rubber band not necessarily the rubber band that I’m about to describe that would essentially stretch and then snapback that’s more the effect of having gapped up to shallowly Friday Friday and the rally we’re going to resume if it were going to prove that the bottom was already in as of Thursday afternoon Friday is open because buyers didn’t game certainly didn’t gain traction on this Thursday afternoon Friday is open would have gapped up above the prior sessions High it didn’t in fact it spent the morning above or under and that’s after gapping up little deceptive there and resolving up of it from The Gap UPS consolidation so again just seemingly optimistic in fact it’s ineffectually optimistic nope maybe it’s eventually optimistic in which case today’s open we describe the sun Saturday’s reviews today’s open would have been gapped up above the to Pryor Road and highs that’s not being done being challenged it’s kind of late to take that seriously if it does so what is happening and we know that and fact Friday’s ineffectual optimism that try to extend our overnight fails then down we go what about the upside well if the sellers aren’t taken control at the open if the earlier overnight low 2422 basically 2422 7523 being tested now but really a priority from Friday afternoon would be helpful confirmation to take out as well that’s not being taken out through the open then flat the higher and higher could be aggressive nothing says that hire can’t be aggressive just because sellers almost took control and didn’t nothing says it has to be higher just because they were prevented from taking control or that is aggressively higher but flat to hire would be the only two options remaining of sellers can’t take control at the open and if they do and will get an extra will get some degree of confidence in a bottom baby for me but that’s really it has no requirement that kind of grudgingly and in this pattern that’s comprised multiples that keep breaking lower and no break no false prior that resolved down as triangles often do that began aggressively and its origin this pattern is I’ve been saying everyday tends to resolve one way it tends to resolve one way into Steps step one is Progressive so big spike basically looking for identify this is.