The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s weakness into Thursday’s gap down was soon extended to fresh lows. The renewed 2411.00 bias-down target was nearly the lowest price of the nearly 3-week old downtrend. Last Thursday’s low was lower, and the higher low’s price could have begun forming a bottom. Indeed, the 2421.50 open was retraced into the afternoon bias environment. But only the open was retraced, gaining no traction, and the balance of the session collapsed to 2405.25. Still 3 points above last Thursday’s low, but now too close to be only its retracement.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming into Thursday’s close has held several tests of 2411.00 as resistance. Its latest was a blip-up to touch this morning’s 2411.75 bias-up signal at Europe’s opens, which then reacted down 4 points to fresh overnight lows at 2407.50. Firming again has resumed the consolidation resisted by 2411.00.

If, then…
This morning’s Employment Situation report is widely assumed to be a non-event, unlikely to trigger or inform Fed action. Perhaps this most recent downleg from Monday’s highs has been constructive defensive posturing by weak-handed sellers. None of which would prevent this morning’s news from being a catalyst for extending down further. But breaking lower early could find sellers are already done, leaving the balance of the session to gravitate back up, if not also squeezing shorts. By the same token, an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up would risk rallying too little to gain traction action, inviting another downleg into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2409.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2411.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2415.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour it is Friday July 7th 7 7 2017 Lucky Sevens I have no idea what that works here I don’t know but what is what is working in the market is the downside it’s been working for almost 3 weeks now that is two Mondays ago the market Gap out of a range and has been trending down ever since last Thursday it hit a fresh loaf for that downtrend low under the range that it had gapped up from attacking the prior low the prior pull back low at the end of May that prior pull back slow had stopped optimistically short touching touching 2399 the minimum objective or likely objective actually optimistically short but rallied anyway and we do the context was temporary and here we are 2399 is back and play because 2411 didn’t hold yesterday it could have but it’s reaction up didn’t gain any traction didn’t cover any ground or Tracy ground reclaim in the ground that hadn’t already been tested intraday and as we suspected the balance of the session or at least the laws were broken and they were broken through the balance of the session the only way to offset that yesterday sellers or invalidate them is basically to Gap up today yesterday and if we if there’s a reaction to the employment situation report that is the payrolls that are released before they open at mornings only I can have a comport if there’s a favorable initially favorable need jerk reaction up it has room 215 50 16 and still likely to resolve down that’s more difficult to recover from because then the clock starts ticking and were so much closer to the weekend it’s difficult to find counter-trend sponsorship get out of a 1550 2416 through the open and yeah we’ll look for a rally from there again it won’t be in the context of rejecting yesterday’s break under 11 so not a trend reversal but still rally otherwise or Meanwhile we’re looking for fresh left and we can be prepping fresh Lowe’s head of the news already and the news as a catalyst triggers that last mile that lasting ten yards down and they were done with selling so there’s an opportunity here for the decline to end and if it is not obvious soon enough by sellers having reached some lower objective or buyers having cleared a major hurdle then the session does Trend down any questions please post them in the chartroom meanwhile hero backing off a little after yesterday’s Buy Signal that filled one Gap as left another one outstanding I guess not really bad cough that much but does have upside left outstanding wants to fill the Gap back to yesterday’s open 7736 if it’s not a new high that wasn’t actually it’s above all entered a but it was already being probed prior to that but still that’s likely to collapse already Gap outstanding to Friday’s close are there irrelevant levels of course not without some external news going to get back down there organically so I would tend to give this a better for the doubt closing back above 1620 we already know is bullish prior to actually testing 1555 1560 closing above 1620 would have created a much bigger detour on the way to 1555 1560 Will having test to 1555 1560 already closing bag web 1620 would be vorse that’s still a ways off when I prefer to see for a long entry or for a bullish setup is go ahead and test 5560 go ahead and test that intraday anyway I’d look at that favorably and would not require at this stage we testing the overnight low before rally Long Pond which broke yesterday lower it still in that range overnight notice yet another triangle descending triangle if not symmetrical triangle that’s not really a symmetrical triangle so much as a trend line but we are getting some symmetry to the downtrending resistance in the up training support but the point is triangles represent in decision more than they represent a continuing continuation pattern and there’s no great timing pre open Action said it’s going to be tough to Rally out of here above 295 with a couple gaps below outstanding any questions or I will see you before the open don’t forget we’ve got a Saturday review tomorrow alright good luck today.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s rejection of Tuesday night’s rally quickly fell more than 10 points from 2429.75. The 10:15 bias timing window exit was probing Monday’s 2420.50 close down to 2419.25. The plunge was recovered almost entirely almost as quickly, attacking 2429.75 at the 11:30 bias environment exit. The balance of the session ranged choppily flat-to-higher at 2426.50-2432.25, settling back under the morning’s 2429.75 highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
A blip-up to 2430.50 was soon reversed to probe under Wednesday afternoon’s 2426.50 lows. Price action consolidated there until Europe’s opens triggered another dip, which extended down sharply to fresh lows for the week at 2416.00 before bouncing. That’s a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from Thursday’s 2402.25 low.

If, then…
Wednesday morning’s plunge had stopped optimistically short of touching Monday morning’s 2418.50 lows. Its support was already chipped away, so the last-minute deflection is bearish from a contrarian perspective. Support there wasn’t even obligatory — in fact, this overnight drop sliced through it. Gapping down under prior lows would be vulnerable to extending lower immediately. Any delay would be in order to correct back up to what is now “higher prior lows” at 2420.00. Extending down would next target 2399.00 if not also 2393.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2421.50 would be less likely to break back under the 2419.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would otherwise renew the bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
[Unavailable today due to a technical matter.]

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The holiday-shortened session bowed to different influences than normally, if it bowed to any influences, at all. Renewing Monday morning’s 2435.50 bias-up target produced no follow-through. Consolidating through the bias environment formed a Symmetrical Triangle centered around 2434.00. Breaking lower at noon fell to 2426.50 and then to 2422.00 into the early close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging choppily Monday night greeted Europe’s opens from just under Monday’s 2422.00 close. A quick reaction up extended to 2431.25. Narrow ranging broke lower in time to close unchanged at 2424.00-2425.00. Tuesday night’s action has been choppy, but less so, currently hovering just 1 point above unchanged.

If, then…
The eventual reaction down from Monday’s gap up had narrowly avoided filling the gap back down to Friday’s close around 2420.00. Despite not rallying any higher in all the time since then, the gap remains unfilled. Its attraction is almost “obligatory,” likely at least to be filled. Almost obligatory, and not entirely so, because overnight action can be dismissed if not extended during the opening 15 minutes. So, extending down at all is likely to break lower  and retest Friday morning’s 2418.50 lows, which offer little support if any, on the way down to fresh lows. Rallying instead — preferably by gapping up which isn’t indicated, or by recovering Monday’s 2436.50 highs through any relevant timing window — would likely end the two-week decline and rally back up to new highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2433.00 would likely trigger the 2430.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or Wednesday July 5th I hope everyone had a pleasurable Independence Day pleasurable safe we’ve got some news that has a track record of influencing price action maybe factors influence that can be traced suspected from the drop if the open is filling the gap or even before the open back down to Friday’s close we’re probably going to be breaking through it breaking through it says really the real test is Friday mornings 24 1850 Liz you can see the obligatory test there that support should be chipped away so if 24 1850 is were tested we probably break it on the way down to Fresh Lowe’s fresh Liz means under last week’s was at least a retest of it but 2399 to 2393 I should say 23923 otherwise turn it down so much is just pull back correct silver extended down even more deeply for some reason the transfer of the levels from July aren’t really taking need to get that done little more indelibly but here’s the July pattern July charts were on sep now but structurally the same pattern all the resistance up here being tested and needing to retest would have been the prior Sun Daze Spike down to its Target equivalent to 1635 set then the requirement to retest it at a minimum and being extended so here’s sep again 1635 Target there was Matt Pryor Sunday night requiring a retest not necessarily intraday just a retest because of its Spike value and also not being tested or Bing retraced to the degrees retraced already is because to fully testing the Target and pay the consequence now for that big detour in doing so is it closer to a bottom or it’s always closer to a bottom line is always closer to about doesn’t mean it’s closer to turn and now we have this is not or at least star crude oil which had its next resistance 4706 basically tested it overnight tested after Tuesday’s close never really extended it remember this is kind of living on borrowed time while our pattern I did Target 4490 and then that was recalculate before it was met two or Justin to 4525 this is just been accessed without triggering a pool bat or without violating a pullback this is just been gravy but if this stage back under 46 would indicate that the rally has ended at least this leg of the rally remember what are objective is that this pattern Beaver tested at the low the foreman or more durable bottom and natural gas just can’t get away from this 295 I knew after Thursday’s need jerk reaction and failed knee jerk reaction to the CIA report we knew we were coming back to test to fill a gap that basically to 295 and this should be here Sunday night came back last night to Type your transcription text here and we’ll autosave your every 15s. Make sure you use our handy shortcuts (Esc, F1, F2, F3, F4, F6) to control the audio playback..

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s ranging around 2417.00-2420.00 had broken higher, early enough not to be disqualified as only a last-minute false breakout. The pre-open attack on 2427.00 was probed post-open. But RSIs diverged negatively into another retest above 2428.00, triggering a reaction down to 2418.50. Two more touches of 2418.50 defined the morning’s bias environment. The balance of the session was defined by recovering gradually to retest the morning’s test of 2428.00. A late blip-up came too late to be credible, and was reversed down sharply by quarter-end re-positioning from 2430.00 to to attack the morning’s 2418.50 low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open quickly completed Friday’s late dip back down to the morning’s 2418.50 low. Then Friday’s intraday pattern repeated, recovering gradually back up to test its late 2430.00 high.

If, then…
Levels and inflection points are always influential to some degree. But today’s holiday-shortened session makes patterns less predictive and resolutions less reliable. So much, occasionally, that they can be contrary. That’s probably why last night’s dip back down to Friday morning’s 2418.50 low was recovered instead of plunging through it — which would be likely intraday. Meanwhile, today’s session is greeted in an ongoing two-week downtrend of lower lows and lower highs, whose two rally efforts were rejected aggressively.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2430.50 would be likely to trigger the 2428.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market two or not allowed to go over see if we can make this and record time the big thing that happened on Friday was Thursday Thursday night actually actually after Thursday night it was more Friday morning but it’s actually it was this here’s the overnight action Thursday night little bit of a head fake blip down quite literally at your UPS opens or into Europe’s opens and then not so late that it was likely a false break and it has not been an extended but it hasn’t been reversed since then but not that it extended Friday’s pre-open had extended higher an early test of it while 3-minute are inside only failed to get to over but limited are inside the Verge negatively and reacted down and the morning being of Friday if you make it to the bias environment without X fill in the blank 4X if there is a axe that’s being attempted in this is not just Friday mornings bias environment in a over way but beneath the surface behind the scenes or just a little little less influentially anytime in window this is pretty glaring that’s Friday morning trying retrying retrying you know that’s a tablet or a probe at some point is coming but couldn’t get it done Friday morning and so when you come into the holiday weekend or essentially we’re in what I’ve described to find is basically a five-day holiday even though it’s not too working holiday balance of the session just gravitated higher I didn’t catch that early enough but the point is that is what did happen just gravitated hire that was it for influence which we already knew that was going to be in short supply if it was going to be available at all and then at the end actually let’s go to the one minute this was a bicycle right here that gravitating hire this was a bicycle ride here at 7:50 and it was too late to be credible that’s how we got into the final hour it was too late to be credible for breaking it was too late but that doesn’t mean that the market can’t try breaking higher now we are in a two-week downtrend lower lows and lower high as the only Rally’s that since Monday the two Mondays ago the only Rally’s it is really to actual rally attempts there’s one there’s one last Monday rejected aggressively there is one Wednesday got somewhere didn’t make a higher high but it was then Thursday rejected aggressively there’s no reason to think that pattern has changed there’s nothing that is a catalyst today so we’re going to be 41 and Gala Davis break and now resting on its Laurels silver and gold both there’s July for silver which is not the front-month anymore but just an illustrated because that’s the pattern we were tracking with these gaps up to this area that needed to resolve down nothing changed from Wednesday’s Gap up still needed to resolve down and indeed overnight last night down to 1640 bassist July that’s here and now it’s good except which equates to as far as last night 1645 the objective being to retest the test of what had been the target below this bike down that targeted at tested what was 1625 1630 and bassist July 16 35 40 basically call 35 basis app so nothing about the rally said that was off the table at least not at that point and now nothing about this reaction down suggest it isn’t back on the table gold as well where to stop short last week actually testing the 12:35 Target before bouncing and now is fulfilling the 12:35 Target proving it overnight I can’t say that that’s going to be the end of the road here it’s clearly not it’s being probed intraday and so are overnight so it’s clearly not going to turn on a dime so to speak but we could see this down to 1231 before suggesting a bigger break is underway if there’s going to be a corrective balance of corrective bounces likeliest Launchpad would be from 12:31 having said that back about 12:36 would also be capable of launching a bounce with a couple of possibilities 1243 12:40 gold and silver to define a better low didn’t happen and that overnight that’s being probed little bit I mean it’s not getting carried away because he’s coming back to 46 resistance which was being tested Friday the longest 4525 doesn’t break lower there’s potential for this to extend even hire you know what’s the potential that a bottom is already in it is that is possible I really don’t like that pattern though that does leave a couple things unfinished below just one of the kind of thing that can happen on a note back headliner or two cutter is in the news of course but if there is a reaction down that can seal the bottom then we can look at crude oil as being pretty bullish Natural Gas Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up it wasn’t sustain said we were probably coming down to the 290-5297 area got down to 298 that’s not too bad it doesn’t necessarily surprised it wasn’t deep enough to to be reliable for having sealed the bottom that Gap really does want to be filled so overnight gap down and took care of that there’s no unfinished business below now none there’s no requirement to test the gap down last night’s gap down and the Gap back to Friday’s close is now an attraction helping to recover so back of a 308 is the nearest opportunity to know that the signal at least that momentum is reversing up again that in the case of natural gas bottom has been sealed but just testing just fill in the Gap back to 295 which we had indicated what which Thursday’s pattern indicated was coming so long as that holds bottoming is underway alright any questions .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

PROGRAMMING NOTES: Market Wrap MAY be held early today, and Saturday Review is NOT held on holiday weekends.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Today’s audio seems to stop at a late point, but I do then repeat the missed info.]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session-long rally had extended its session-long rally overnight up to 2445.00. That could have been delayed until Thursday morning — or repeated or extended, and likely would have — so long as Thursday’s open was not already reversing back under Wednesday’s 2440.50 intraday highs. A dip had already warned us to act quickly if it repeated, and it repeated. The 2437.50 sell signal quickly triggered and soon extended to the reversal’s 2431.50 minimum objective. If that did not hold, then the next lower objective was to probe under Wednesday’s 2413.75 pre-open low. The afternoon bias environment touched 2402.25 in a capitulative pattern that was retraced up to 2422.50 before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging was contained mostly between 2418.00-2422.00, narrow under most circumstances, and more so compared to Thursday’s range. Europe’s opens triggered a blip-down to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2414.75 bias-down signal. Its reaction up has extended to fresh overnight highs probe this morning’s 2425.25 bias-up signal by 6 ticks.

If, then…
Was Thursday’s plunge the delayed consequence of Wednesday having rallied prematurely? Was Wednesday’s rally, or Thursday’s plunge — or both, for that matter — influenced by the impending 5-day weekend’s illiquidity? Regardless of influences 2-3 days prior, today the weekend and its unique influences have arrived. Evaporating volume and shrinking liquidity typically inhibit trending from starting, and similarly exacerbate trending if a catalyst starts it. Today is being greeted from a position of weakness, having trended down since the prior Monday. Resuming the decline would be attracted down by the required retest of simultaneously oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2402.25 low. And then likely further to “lower prior high” at 2399.00 down to 2393.00. The same influences cut either way, and could extend yesterday afternoon’s recovery. But sellers won’t be marginalized at this stage of the pattern, so any rally would be tenuous.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2426.75 would be likely to trigger the 2425.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2421.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market to her a little bit of a push up here at the last couple minutes before starting the tour was trying to throw a little early actually today as it happens there’d been a will get into yesterday’s decline in the moment but overnight price action is really been defined by this relatively narrow narrow range largely to find between 2418 2422 yesterday’s late high was 2250 that was almost touched almost touched initially not by a significant Miss not considering the other night is the overnight here’s your UPS opens triggering flip down to a fresh low at 2415 1475 is the bias down signal so one tick off overnight and now we acting up to test the 24 25 25 by up signal test actually prove it proving it by by one point at this moment okay so does any of it mean anything not this early not this close to the open or this far from the open today of course if that would put into play and in the scheme of things which is yesterday show up it’s been corrected it doesn’t have to extend any higher today to correct any to finish correcting and if the decline resume that’s a likely attraction not only is that a likely attraction but it’s retest because of the ever sold simultaneously ever sold our size because of the simultaneously oversold are size of three tests would not likely hold or at least would be likely to touch 2399 before holding where there are lower Pryor High as you have to be retested + 2399 if that’s tested under the right circumstances could extend damn would likely extend down to 2393 before being able to recover if that could have gotten out of the way and I say that as if it’s already failed to happen and we we are not open yet where where a new downdraft can’t get that done early this morning my point is if early selling where to test add the RC by recovering the two week-old High that was already threatening it really invalidates this cell signal there is no more requirement by the cell signal that is invalidated that’s gap would like to be filled but there’s no requirement to close any lower in any case yesterday’s pattern created a island today is not indicated to gap down back under it and overnight has only traded higher so not a great sale candidate without it first showing that it’s weakening the pound had to confirm breakout requiring at least eventual third our clothes that is now fulfilled the Looney similarly confirm Breakout Now quickly fulfilled doesn’t mean it’s about to reverse down but there’s no requirement to extend any higher and the euro is disappeared and it’s back to the gyro also and it’s going again okay so obviously having a little bit of attitude problem there with the Euro confirm break out already fulfilled as well probing above its minimum objective Rob’s Arts maximum objective for this leg for the buying pressure contained in the basing that launched it it’s quite extended pull back clematis 11450 basically gold essentially at least the closure say held its 12:40 6:50 upper end of the balance limit probe did intraday but held It ultimately and reacting down a little bit there’s after yesterday yesterday’s pre-open or overnight slide that extended into the open stopped short the 12:35 charging that remains outstanding silver rolling forward to this app is extending down further overnight but it really didn’t participate yesterday other than to fill a gap outstanding below it could break lower that’s not to say it won’t because even though before Monday is open already tested the attempted yesterday and okay there’s been an audio issue here as we’ve gone through gone through and I’m not sure where to put can I’m sorry let’s go through the last few charts if it started with Metals wear silver has yet to even remotely try retesting Sunday night Slow that did anyway we test it STAR test its Target and it already responded to it its underperforming gold they wants to leave the way back down and certainly free to do that gold which is off a little but it held its bounce them at long bond which could be forming of pretty interesting bottom here because yesterday’s low held the declines Target it didn’t close above 150 for 16 and now a retest of yesterday’s allow is trying to hold it as well that set up essentially or at least almost equates to being a Buy Signal but the 154 16 is still helpful trigger that momentum is reversing up crude oil had 4525 Target extended Target the met and held yesterday and it’ll likely area to launch the next down leg with the next down leg is likely to be limited just backing and filling the complete a bottom it reacted down yesterday but not durably and it’s only retesting yesterday’s high this morning and the natural gas which greeted yesterday’s eia report from a position of strength and had a new gerbil knee-jerk reaction to it never the last ended lower and has potential now down to 295 Friday last Friday’s close lower prioritize the 95 to 97 however back above 308 if at any point this pull-back closes back rejected and retraced at least the clothes back of a 308 will assume the pullbacks done alright today ok .