Market Wrap

If Last week’s rally had expended any more energy… then buyers might have gotten something for their effort.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Although it was probed intraday by more than 2-3 points, 1860.00-1861.00 resistance held through Thursday’s close. Closing above it would have put into play 1868.00-1871.00 and potentially 1875.00 and 1879.00.

So, a lot of buying pressure was expended Thursday just to attack last week’s last relative high. In fact, a lot of buying pressure was expended all week. And the week’s lows weren’t even accumulative, only attacking prior lows without probing them before rallying

Either Monday’s open quickly recovers 1860.00-1861.00 to resume the uptrend, or the alternative would target and possibly break under 1852.00-1853.00. Any lower would signal a downleg underway, perhaps the downleg, or just another leg down to recent lows. The outstanding trend change signal suggests the former while also making the current bounce a temporary correction.

I noted in the Daily Spot that three markets aren’t reflecting any fear, and that’s ahead of a three-day global holiday. Gold fell, Crude Oil held its rally target’s test, and the long-bond retraced its flight-to -safety excess. Let’s hope they’re right, and look out if they’re not.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
This being a holiday weekend, don’t forget that there is no Saturday Strategy Session. I did address the bigger picture in Thursday’s post-close Market Wrap. Enjoy![/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

If expiration’s intent to be biased-up were genuine… then it might have left more upside on the table before Thursday. Bouncing from recent lows had potential to two levels. The first objective was tested Wednesday, and the second isn’t much higher.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday’s gap up reacted down almost instantly, but never threatened entering negative territory. This describes only the morning’s bias environment, but it also described the session’s lack of sellers.

The noon hour’s fresh highs formed a Close-quarters double top that tends to probe fresh highs after reacting down. There was a lot of reacting down, all the way through the afternoon’s bias environment. But it was never bearish, mostly because of the likelihood for probing fresh highs.

Fresh highs were probed, but that leg didn’t breakout until after the bias environment began lapsing. Finally, a fly in the ointment, and it undermined an otherwise compelling hold-long. Earlier highs had held 1852.00-1853.00 resistance, and closing higher put into play 1860.00-1861.00.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
GOOGL’s post-close earnings knocked the market back down under 1852.00-1853.00. Probing fresh highs on expiration’s open could be the only way to ensure trending or volatility in the afternoon.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

If the market is at an inflection point… then I must be on a plane. It figures. I will be in the air almost all morning Wednesday. There may be an opportunity to check-in, but otherwise I won’t be posting until noon ET.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The past two sessions have missed opportunities to extend down through Friday’s lows. Monday afternoon’s opportunity came AFTER the afternoon bias environment had already avoided breaking lower. Tuesday’s early effort came with news attached, which allowed the market to discount its threat and move on.

In fact, the balance of Monday and Tuesday retraced their earlier slides entirely. Is that accumulation, or is it expiration’s influence?

This week’s expiration is Thursday due to Friday being closed. Tuesday is essentially Wednesday, for the purposes of the WedEX indication. Of course, it isn’t that simple. Lacking a full history of one-day early expirations means we can’t rely on a one-day early WedEX. But this one would be bullish.

Oversold RSIs at Monday’s 1808.75 low require a retest. Meanwhile, until expiration’s influence lapses, the near-term potential is to 1853.00. Already, Tuesday’s post-close action has extended up to 1844.00. All of which pretty much relies upon not launching a decline Wednesday morning. The market is currently up in the air on that point. And so am I, literally.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There is no Market Tour before Wednesday’s open, but the Chartroom will be open. If you’re in there and someone asks, then please let them know. Thank you![/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

If not for Passover… then the market would have trended. If not for tax deadlines, the market would have rallied. There are as many motivations for the market every day as there are people involved. And they’re all correct. But the market will do what the market wants to do.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Speaking of which, just what did it do? Its overnight rally wasn’t extended Monday morning. Its noon hour high was retraced all the way back down to Friday’s close. And that was recovered back to the open.

I had a brief discussion on the post-close Market Wrap, which can be watched from its link in the blog’s sidebar. Apart from that, it’s just what we discussed before the open — a delay, perhaps even a detour, but not an end to the decline.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
I’ll be checking in overnight to monitor for signs of resuming one or the other of Monday’s two equally fervent directions. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

If this is just a correction… then it’s done. It’s probably not just a correction, so it’s probably not done. But if it’s just a correction, then it’s done. But it’s probably not.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Gapping down Friday, and not just down but to the bias-down target, was too early to satisfy selling pressure. But it didn’t attract buyers. There was plenty of opportunity, and a bounce could muster was filling the gap back to Thursday’s close.

The gap fill reacted down to a fresh low. It was productive. So, revisiting Friday’s high during any relevant timing window would suggest the market is intent on bouncing even higher. Retesting Friday’s high overnight could still be rejected without leaving a trace of the visit, or requiring a higher high.

Of greater concern is Friday’s second consecutive lower close, which confirms Thursday’s trend change signal. And the confirmation session trended down, which is optimal. The bigger picture:

— that the Thu-Fri decline is too brief after the prior week’s Fri-Mon decline,
— that two equal length downlegs (60 points) aren’t likely to book-end the decline, and
— that optimistically avoiding 1803.00 has made 1792.25 and 1776.00 much likelier.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There is no Saturday Strategy Session this weekend. Request any stock analyses on this blog post’s comments section.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.