S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Price reaction to any pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports. But only post-open reports have any track record for influencing price action.
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
TUE 7:00 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2063.25 | 2057.00 |
| …would target | 2069.50 | 2063.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2056.50 | 2050.50 |
| …would target | 2050.75 | 2044.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Once more into the fire pit.
Retesting lower prior highs that had already held.
Rallying this morning was at the very least dependent upon compartmentalizing any probe under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low.
The open tried to compartmentalize the pre-open probing under 2059.50. That failed thanks to a blip-down during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. This also failed being compartmentalized as 9:45 was still testing 2059.50 and not rejecting it.
The result was a plunge to 2053.50, and then lower to 2050.25.
2050.50 happens to be a relevant level. It was tested AT the 10:15 bias timing window, which at least compartmentalizes the sponsorship testing it. Its reaction tested the 2056.00 area.
So long as the 2050.25 low isn’t broken — so long as the 10:15 low is THE low — exiting the bias environment back above 2059.50 could compartmentalize the probing under it. That wouldn’t be optimal, but it’s probably today’s last bullish template.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing from the 2057.25 low hasn’t extended above its initial 2062.00 reaction. But that hasn’t been rejected. Instead, an Ascending Triangle has formed. Isolating the overnight probe under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low is critical to preventing the overnight slide from resuming post-open, and threatening the 2056.00 area’s last line of support.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Australian banana peels.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s 2065.00 open gapped up just above Friday afternoon’s high and essentially marginalized sellers for the day. The choppy morning finally started resolving up at noon, rallying from 2063.00 to 2077.00. Then it ran into the lower-end of the range that had preceded Thursday afternoon’s drop — “higher prior lows” and pivotal trendline at 2076.50-2077.50. Despite seeming relentless, the rally gained no traction as only the bias environment’s exit was above a prior timing window’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging back to 2072.50 was sent spiraling lower by a Australia’s interest rate cut. The pace began slowing after probing under yesterday’s 2065.00 open, but has nevertheless extended to attack 2057.00. That’s under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally created a lot of room to absorb selling pressure before it could damage the recovery’s pattern. That room ended around 2068.00-2069.00. Just recovering it would be a 61.8% retracement from current lows. And no influential econ report is scheduled today that might be a catalyst. Independently recovering to 2068.00-2069.00 pre-open would be credible, but that’s still resistance. The most bullish scenario might be another choppy morning. Not renewing the bias-down signal — recovering the 2064.50 bias-down target — would be bullish. Anything less would be vulnerable to retesting Friday’s lows, and there’s no bullish reason for that.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2059.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2064.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be unlikely to renew bias-down. Exiting the open above 2071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2069.75 bias-down signal.