S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.00 | 2078.00 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2083.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2075.75 | 2069.75 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2064.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon was so predictable. It was so predictable, because Monday morning was not. Actually, Monday morning’s wide swings responded to calculable inflection points. But those tests never sustained a breakout in either direction.
So, Monday afternoon succeeded where the morning had failed. After struggling all morning to break free from its range, price action glided higher through the afternoon — almost effortlessly.
But did the afternoon rally gain traction for its effort? The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high. But the final hour’s entry and the 3:10-3:20 timing window only maintained. That’s enough for the burden of proof to be on sellers, but not enough to require higher highs.
Higher highs would target the 2080.25 area, and probably lead to retesting two-week old highs. Being so much potential upside, any bearish scenario is likely to be aggressive. So, shallow weakness is likely to resolve up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Scraping the surface.
Target met. More to come?
Gapping up this morning was the alternative to resuming the Thursday-Friday decline. This morning’s late bias-up let its 2073.00 target become “unfinished business above.” It also became this afternoon’s bias-up target, and it has been met.
Now the afternoon bias environment is lapsing. Still overlapping 2073.00 won’t invalidate the upside momentum, but entering the final hour above it would put into play 2080.00-2081.00.
More so, extending the rally today would be as bullish as if last week’s bounces had ever closed above 2091.00 resistance. Having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, entering the final hour even higher would be helpful confirmation.
Otherwise, until there’s a little complexity back under 2073.00, the nearest sell signal currently is 2069.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s confirmation of Thursday’s breakout had gapped up sharply and extended higher intraday. But that didn’t undermine its credibility for serving as confirmation, and for requiring yet another higher close. Not necessarily an immediate higher close, although Monday produced it. The next higher objective in-play is 1.1600 so long as pullbacks hold tests of Monday’s 1.1510 open.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above 1286.00 Friday had put into play the next higher objective at 1312.50. Monday’s gap up attacked the target, which remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1286.00 as support.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing Friday’s high above 18.05 Monday prevented the subsequent reversal down from forming an Island top. But there is room down to 17.50 or even to 17.35 before undermining the next upleg targeting 18.80.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Friday’s higher close having confirmed Thursday’s breakout and now requiring an eventual third higher close, Monday’s opening dip kept the door open to testing prior lows around 161-00 before extending the rally to its 165-00 target.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s weakness further delayed producing the third higher close still outstanding from last week’s confirmed breakout. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 43.85 without reversing momentum down.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s rally had closed high enough to undermine downside momentum, but not high enough to reverse momentum up. Undermined downside momentum didn’t prevent gapping down Monday to test Thursday’s lows and previous “lower prior highs” around 2.08. .
Mid-day Update… Frequency matters.
So many sizable swings in a singular pattern.
This morning’s late bias-up signal eventually produced a fresh high after 10:30. This makes its 2073.00 target very difficult to avoid testing.
Meanwhile, the swings within this morning’s range were not impressive for their size so much as their frequency. So many sizable swings without breaking the range is very unusual. There is no shortage of opinion, and it is widely varied.
Perhaps if the swings weren’t responding to the singular pattern’s calculable inflection points. Then, the ongoing indecision could be dismissed as a market trying to establish a resolution. But gapping up from Friday’s range had done that already, along with triggering bias-up.
Regardless, this afternoon’s 2068.00 bias-up signal is now triggering. Firming into the noon hour’s exit has surged to test 2071.25. Finally exploiting the setup doesn’t improve its productivity. So extending the recovery depends on exceeding 2073.00 through a relevant window.