S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 3, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is thin, with only a Fed speaker having any track record for influencing price action. Thing get busier through the week as Friday’s payrolls report looms.
John Williams Speaks
MON 5:30 PM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.25 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2080.25 | 2073.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.25 | 2061.00 |
| …would target | 2061.50 | 2055.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Periscopes up.
Sub-optimal gap up surfaces at fresh highs.
Gapping up above prior highs — and maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility — was critical to preventing sellers from regaining control.
Gapping up to the 2065.25 bias-up signal reacted down 4 points, and recovered in time to maintain the gap up. But it wasn’t optimal. A 30-minute range between 2059.50–2064.00 had to resolve up. It was, but only to overlap 2065.25 in time to invoke the grace period. After extending to 2068.75, bias-up triggered, but late.
All of which kept alive room for another detour on the way to this morning’s 2073.00 bias-up target. That pattern allows room to briefly test 2065.50 as support. It was just tested. And it resolved up.
That recovery didn’t prevent a knee-jerk reaction down that attacked 2062.00. A knee-jerk reaction to what, I don’t know. Back above 2066.00 would indicate it was a knee-jerk reaction anyway. Otherwise, the sub-optimal gap up will have dived deeply before the bias environment lapses.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2065.25 bias-up signal’s was pierced by 3 ticks before its first reaction down. RSIs diverged negatively on its retest. And now its second reaction down has recovered to fresh highs at 2066.50.
But it’s all moot without also making an impression on the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And that means extending higher with limited delay — perhaps touching 2064.50 before shooting higher, or simply rushing through 2067.00 toward the 2073.00 bias-up target.
More than just a blip-down under 2063.75 would become much less likely to trigger bias-up. An offsetting test of the 2054.50 bias-down signal would be the recovery’s last line of defense.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Threatening bias-up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s slide had extended down overnight to greet Friday’s open gapping down at 2063.00. The morning’s bias environment fell to 2046.00, which the afternoon’s bias environment retested. Their 2057.00 interim bounce was recovered during the last half-hour’s rally back to 2063.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s weaker Globex open continued ranging flat-to-lower down to 2055.50, back up to 2059.00. Firming into Europe’s opens attacked 2063.00, but only momentarily before reversing aggressively back down to 2057.00. It was recovered almost as aggressively, and now fresh highs are touching 2065.50. That is this morning’s bias-up signal, i.e. resistance.
If, then…
Friday afternoon’s range isn’t likely to withstand a retest as support. It represented a retest of early-April’s consolidation that had launched the last rally leg. And its retest was recovered to close above the consolidation. So, either Monday’s open is already rallying — gapping up and extending — or else the decline is resuming. Overnight action hasn’t been overly-optimistic, but neither has it yet indicated a sizable gap up that would be likely also to extend. Regardless, not indicating a gap down should be bullish, as this stage of the pattern is much less likely to maintain Friday’s range.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.25 would be likely to trigger the 2065.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.