S&P
CORRECTION: I”m already experiencing stability
CORRECTION: I”m already experiencing stability issues with the conferencing alternative I listed earlier. Let”s switch back to yesterday”s platform for at least this morning: http://anymeeting.com/699-576-170
The First Trade… Crouching tiger?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
or HERE for the replacement test (and for XP)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s test and retest of the morning”s 2119.75 bias-up target was supported by its 2113.75 bias-up signal. The bias-up environment was then spent chipping away at that support. That prepped the afternoon for a drop to 2100.25, testing the ~2103.25 “lower prior highs” which had finally broken Thursday. Its reaction held 2104.25-2105.00 resistance ahead of AAPL”s post-close earnings.
Overnight action”s new info…
Retesting a breakout point is common before resuming the breakout. But it was the wrong timing window to expect it to hold. A failure from bouncing to 2104.25-2105.00 was likely. And despite AAPL”s pop on earnings, Monday”s 2100.25 low attracted price back down. Attacks on it stopped optimistically short — which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective — before inevitably breaking lower. This morning”s 2095.25 bias-down target was just touched, reacting up almost 3 points from there.
If, then…
Recall that 2095.25 is the upper-end of a 5-point support range, which had been instrumental during the prior two weeks. The timing of its recoveries helped us to maintain confidence in new highs throughout continued intraday and overnight dips/plunges. Now comes another test, under the guise of correcting a breakout, during an otherwise irrelevant timing window. Avoiding bias-down, let alone recovering positive territory through the open, could launch a powerful intraday rally. That would require overcoming a tendency for extending the reaction from Monday”s opening sentiment extreme into Wednesday morning. So, bias-down can still be renewed.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2093.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2095.25 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2103.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2100.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2117.25 | 2111.00 |
| …would target | 2122.75 | 2116.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.25 | 2100.25 |
| …would target | 2101.50 | 2095.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Monday afternoon”s 2104.25 bias-down target
Monday afternoon”s 2104.25 bias-down target wasn”t met by 1:20, let alone held, not like the morning”s 2119.75 bias-up target had already held by 10:15. That didn”t required trending lower, but it made trending lower easier. And the next lower targets down to 2101 were met.
That”s where RSIs finally diverged positively, on 2101”s retest. I calculated bounce potential to 2104.25-2105.00 before 2101”s retest, and would have gladly sold it overnight for a reaction down under Monday”s 2101 lows. But it was tested at Monday”s close.
Never mind that, bouncing to 2104.25-2105.00 might still push back under 2101. And that”s despite the favorable reaction to AAPL”s post-close earnings. AAPL has gained up to $2-1/2, but 2104.25-2105.00 is still being overlapped.
I”m still bullish for another probe of fresh highs, no matter how brief, but not from very much lower. Especially if Techs can put in a “relief rally” Tuesday. A Biotech rally would be helpful, too, and not unlikely — their weakness Monday was likely a big function of being shorted as a hedge ahead of AAPL”s earnings. A hedge that doesn”t seem necessary (not until AAPL reaches 140, but don”t tell anyone).
The post-market Wrap is below. But, first, my thanks to all who encountered difficulty with the meeting room software update problem. And my thanks to all who tried one of the 5-6 candidates for its replacement — your observations are very helpful.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxwsswv
Pre-close view… Choppy seas into AAPL earnings.
Afternoon lows didn”t extend.
The slide to 2104.25 had reacted up to 2109.00. That range has persisted for 90 minutes. There remains room down to 2103.00 without yet signaling anything more substantial, although that”s more precarious now after the bias environment has lapsed.
Any durable trending should be underway through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. And that”s because two other timing windows already failed to extend down — the 2:30 bias environment exit and the 3:00 final hour entry.
It”s too late to trigger short-squeeze. But back above 2107.50-2109.00 would still target the 2114.00 area. Meanwhile, still ranging around Friday morning”s 2106.00 low after 3:10-3:20 would make any later trending weak-handed and temporary.