S&P
Daily Spot… About Gold’s about-face.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Higher highs Monday kept alive potential for extending the bounce to attack 1.1100, so long as 1.0845-1.0855 holds as support.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s test of the 1170.00-1174.00 target to within a dime proved enough for a bounce Sunday night that retraced 61.8% of the drop from Thursday”s high. But that was nothing. Monday”s opening gap up consolidated briefly around 1185.00, and then surged sharply to eventually probe attack 1207.00. That”s hardly a stable base to launch a recovery, so at least a dip back to 1194.50 is likely.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 4-day sequence of unconfirmed breakouts was followed by Monday”s gap up to 15.85 that extended sharply higher post-open to 16.45. That”s the lower-end of resistance up to 16.60, which will be difficult to recover without first testing 16.10 as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s 61.8% retracement of the last downleg proved enough for renewed dipping Monday to test 162-00 support. But no lower, as its test at Monay”s open was recovered to within 10 ticks of the 163-18 bounce limit.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow sideways ranging neither pierced the 57.70 (not 56.70) buy signal. It would not be able to tolerate any hesitation the following day, so its break had better be sure about itself. The buy signal”s potential remains alive so long as the 56.58 (not 55.58) pullback limit continues holding as support — which it did, throughout Monday”s lows.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down into the front-month roll (from May to Jun) doesn”t allow a buy signal to form, let alone to trigger, before another session retests Monday”s 2.49 opening print. But doing so after closing above 2.51 could find a very quick upleg underway to 2.73, 2.80 and 2.90.
That which doesn’t reverse the trend refuels it.
Corrective dip ahead of two high-profile events.
[PROGRAMMING NOTE: Getting a lot of favorable comments about this alternative chaRTroom platform:: https://anymeeting.com/851-635-008 ]
The 2119.75 morning bias-up target”s retest held. It wasn”t even pierced. And its reaction down slid under the 2116.00 area to reverse momentum down.
That could have ended in the 2111.00 area. And it did, MOMENTARILY, attacking it to within 3 ticks before bouncing. But the 2116.00 area held as resistance, and launched another downleg into the noon hour.
And through it. This afternoon”s 2110.00 bias-down target was touched just after 1:20 had signaled bias-down.
Its reaction up to 2109.00 doesn”t mean the bottom is in. Back under 2106.25 would target 2103.00. Exiting the bias environment any lower would suggest a much bigger downleg is underway into Wednesday morning ahead of that afternoon”s FOMC policy statement.
Meanwhile, the alternative to extending down under 2103.00 would be to rally — to new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 28 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday morning”s first three econ reports offer snapshots of consumer health, as if Monday”s post-close Apple earnings would have told us already everything we need to know.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2121.75 | 2115.50 |
| …would target | 2126.75 | 2120.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2116.00 | 2110.00 |
| …would target | 2110.50 | 2104.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWNT | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Target met, and held, but not rejected
Chipping away at the bias-up target”s resistance?
The pre-open recovery extended to within 3 ticks of the 2119.75 bias-up target, within 5 minutes of the open. Its attraction would be considered neutralized if not fulfilled this morning, regardless of being put into play.
And almost avoided being put into play. The open”s reaction down slid immediately to touch the 2113.75 bias-up signal as support.
A 2-1/2 point bounce was retraced entirely, while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. Bias-up triggered at the 10:15 bias timing window, that wasn”t an issue. But the bias-up target had been touched at the high.
So, this is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.
Usually this setup avoids extending higher this morning. That opens the door to reversing down, which is a risk this afternoon if the market were to become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AAPL”s post-close earnings.
But the rally”s momentum remains intact above the 2117.00 area. Holding it as support would allow the rally to extend. Otherwise, at least backing-and-filling down to the 2114.00 area becomes likely, and vulnerable to reversing into negative territory.