S&P
The overnight recovery has held
The overnight recovery has held up, and is now extending to within 3 ticks of the 2119.75 bias-up target. This territory for extreme sentiment is risking that it might be a sentiment extreme. Watch the preliminary levels described in the First Trade blog post… Meanwhile, the XP chaRTroom alternative is working well. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtccrm
The First Trade… Compensating for the delay, or streching the rubber band?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: A weekend conference room update to the ilinc software is locking out XP systems. An ilinc Sr. Manager advises deleting all instances of previous ilinc and Mitel versions before trying log-in. I tried this on an XP-loaded machine (files I found are listed below*) but without success. We won”t have additional tech support until mid-morning. Meanwhile…
CLICK HERE FOR A SEPARATE ENTRY IF ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTY
Files to remove: ilinc-web-services*, join-session*, mitel*
(Add or) Remove programs: ilinc, Mitel
Start menu: ilinc, Mitel:
Through the prior close…
Friday”s noon hour pierced Thursday”s high by a single tick, touching the afternoon”s 2114.75 bias-up signal as resistance. Otherwise, it was an inside day, contained entirely within Thursday”s range. Actually, within Thursday afternoon”s range, optimistically avoiding a dip back under the prior highs that Thursday morning”s surge exceeded. That was a breakout, and Friday”s inside day didn”t confirm it, despite being a new trend high close.. The entire session ranged in positive territory without extending higher, which is “ineffectual optimism.”
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging 1 point either way around 2112.75 suddenly surged to 2116.50 into Europe”s opens, presumably on expectation of China doing a round of QE. Europe”s concerns over Grexit immediately drove price down sharply to 2108.50. A relentless retracement recovered it all to now retest the initial high up to 2118.00.
If, then…
Friday”s complacency after Thursday”s breakout was a sign of things to come, but not necessarily a sell signal. The condition tells us to monitor for the next probe of fresh highs. Having reserved its energy Friday, will Monday compensate for the delay with a new breakout close, or will an intraday probe of fresh highs only stretch the rubber band to be reversed and to close negative. Either resolution could extend into Wednesday morning ahead of that afternoon”s FOMC policy statement.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2113.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2110.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
I think there”s a new
I think there”s a new “client” for accessing the chaRTroom. It seems to work seamlessly on Win 8, but it”s not being very cooperative using XP. Please post here or email me if you encounter any difficulty.
Saturday Review”s recordings are here…
Saturday Review”s recordings are here…
in the traditional version
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthppyv
and now also available in MP4
https://www.anymeeting.com/312-009-551/E159D884844F
After discussing the bigger picture, the following stock charts were reviewed in this order:
CPLP, AAPL, OXIS, CARA, NFLX, GOOG, ADXS, PII, SLF, KING, ZIOP, BWLD, MBT, SDRL, JOY, MNST, OGZPY, AFL, CEO, SIG, ITB/XHB, TUR, PBR, VALE, CIG.
And here”s the accompanying chat:
Miss Kitty: Good morning.
Mark : gm
charles daniel: hi0
Mark : good
Mark : audio breaking up – is it just me?
Miss Kitty: audio fine
Mark : from time to time
Mark : ok
Mark : do u think a major reversal may come with ESR on Fri?
Miss Kitty: So you don”t see yesterday as the start of a 2-3 month new rally to 2300 or so?
Mark : Employment situation repoort
Mark : possibly
Mark : ok
Mark : seems like raising too early would be worth than too late so they probably won”t raise
Mark : indexes comparison pls
Mark : CPLP
Mark : AAPL
Miss Kitty: OXIS, CARA
charles: nflx goog
M K: ADXS
M K: PII
M K: ZIOP
M K: BWLD
charles: googL
M K: MNST
M K: OGZPY
M K: SIG
M K: volume was super weak
M K: friday
M K: i sold the new high
tamara n:SLF,KING,MBT,SDRL
tamara n:AFL,CEO,ITB,TUR IF THERE IS TIME
M K: after all that trending
M K: seems like distribution on PII
M K: distribution =! topping
M K: look at volume die on the 2nd top
M K: wanted to short 1250
M K: but never got it
M K: think the next time 1250 prints is bullish now
M K: thats algos
Bill G: JOY,several week consolidation before a further drop or basing for rally?
M K: would you fade?
M K: or be careful if fading on increasing volume
M K: i”m thinking we see 184-186 again
M K: earnings coming
M K: i don”t think we”ll get a clear signal
M K: yes
tamara n: PBR, VALE, CIG if there is time. I must leave and will listen to the recrding later. Thank you so much Rod.
Bill G: Currently appears the 50 day ma is providing resistance for those that trade that way
M K: MNST the chart just screams institutional accumulation
M K: exactly
M K: but they need 2-3qs of bad new
M K: s
M K: you see the lumber XHB divergence?
Mark : merci beaucoup
charles : tks
Saturday Review begins at 9:30am
Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET (you can enter the room before then). We”ll discuss this week”s long-awaited new high, the unconfirmed breakout, and how the bigger picture might be affected. We”ll also game out strategies for Sunday night and Monday”s open, and review your stock chart analysis requests.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy