S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up probed an unfilled gap at 1.1645 momentarily before its retracement tested Wednesday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1.1605. Its reaction recovered 1.1645, so far holding a test of the gap and of its resistance. Almost any initial weakness Friday morning would be credible for extending down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up to the original 1209.50 bounce limit held up through the open and trended up intraday to test 1228.00. This is the highest levels since July, and makes the 1172.50 objective problematic. Much will depend on whether Friday produces a second consecutive higher close. Regardless, “lower prior highs” at 1209.50 will be difficult to break back under.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gaping up Thursday above Tuesday’s 14.45 high trended up intraday until filling the gap back to Friday’s 14.65 high. No “unfinished business” below is outstanding, so early strength or weakness Friday would be credible for extending in that direction.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s mixed signals were likely to first test 138-04 above before reversing to fresh lows under 136-26. Stock market continued weakness overnight motivated a bounce to 138-17. Its reaction down held 138-04 Thursday morning, before retesting the overnight high. Back under 138-04 would now target 136-26 and lower.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight follow-through of Wednesday’s break under the 73.90 sell signal reacted poorly to Thursday morning’s EIA report. Extending down to 70.90 also produced a second consecutive lower close to confirm Wednesday’s break. At least an eventual third lower close is now required.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness, the open gapped down to the 3.25 sell signal and extended down to 3.15. That Its retracement ended back at or under the sell signal, needing a second consecutive lower close on Friday to confirm.
Mid-day Update… A floor?
Opening rally’s failure tests and holds relevant low.
The next lower objective after yesterday was “lower prior highs” at 2749.00. Its multiple tests overnight produced bounces to 2780.00 and 2799.00. And like earlier bounces, 2749.00 was retested again.
Did 2749.00 hold?
Testing and holding 2749.00 during the open would have formed a durable bottom. Isolating its test to the morning’s bias window is less optimal, but would have gotten a benefit of the doubt. Instead, the morning’s bias-down target was still being overlapped at noon. Trading decisively above 2749.00 would have been optimal, but it certainly wasn’t rejected decisively.
But, did 2749.00 hold?
The reaction extended up to 2787.50 during the noon hour. Bias-up wasn’t triggered, but neither was bias-down. Exiting the bias environment beyond either 2760.50-2791.00 signal would be likely to extend in that direction. Higher would be less optimal, but still credible. Otherwise, the decline is likely to resume, as early as today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s Fed speaker spoke earlier this week so he’s less likely to inject a surprise. The afternoon’s Fed speaker may help to inject a little volatility before the weekend. Consumer Sentiment in between is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2788.00 | 2791.00 |
| …would target | 2800.00 | 2803.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2757.50 | 2760.50 |
| …would target | 2746.00 | 2740.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back to widely disparate opinions.
Opening volatility offers a little something for everyone.
Overnight tests of “lower prior highs” at 2749.00 not only held, but also launched a pre-open recovery up to 2786.50. 
Actually, the last 12 points of that was the knee-jerk reaction to CPI. The open was greeted there, but within a choppy range.
The choppy overnight range and the choppy pre-open range kept it going to produce a choppy post-open range. Dipping to attack 2772.00 and surging into positive territory attacking 2799.00 has now been reversed to attack overnight down to 2751.00.
Late no-bias triggered when the last reversal barely managed to touch the 2778.50 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 10:15. The grace period recovered, yet the reversal has taken control. Without producing a probe above the pre-10:15 high, exiting the bias environment under its 2769.50 bias-down signal would invalidate its signal. So, no-bias and its offsetting test of the bias-up signal seem to be off the table.
At least a test of the 2749.00 “lower prior highs” is likely. That would also be a retest of the overnight lows, but the overnight/intraday difference doesn’t make them any likelier to break lower. And the same setup applies — testing 2749.00 during a timing window and recovering it before the exit could establish a near-term bottom. Its break could otherwise trend down sharply.