S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2765.00 | 2768.00 |
| …would target | 2772.75 | 2775.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2747.25 | 2750.50 |
| …would target | 2739.00 | 2742.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Session-long rally setup fails to fully form.
Rallying overnight to 2785.00 was optimism. But it would be ineffectual if not exploited post-open. Gapping up to and/or through yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias environment high still needed to extend higher.
It didn’t.
2777.00 is actually the resistance that yesterday’s bias environment high was testing. The open tested the actual 2778.50 high by 3 ticks. And then it collapsed. A dip to 2766.00 was recovered to 2778.00, but that has also collapsed to attack 2759.00.
Failing to complete the session-long rally setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. The earliest confirmation is to probe under the pre-9:45 open’s low after 10:15. That’s done. Like the session-long rally setup would have done, all but one timing window today should probe its prior timing window’s low.
None of which precludes sizeable intraday bounces. Even fresh highs can maintain the setup’s integrity, if rejected back under prior highs before that timing window lapses. Current example: A bounce from 2759.00 is retesting this morning’s 2773.00 bias-up target. Big bounce, which should hold this resistance because its test held already through 10:15.
A momentary probe of fresh session highs is still possible, but back under 2767.75 would start to signal the reaction down has resumed. Remember, the bigger picture’s goal is to close back under 2749.00, preferably under yesterday’s 2745.50 and 2732.00 closes, if not also under yesterday’s 2712.25 low. None of which is likely if probing a fresh high without rejecting it.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Last gasp?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The decline’s next lower objective at 2749.00 had been thoroughly tested overnight. But already rallying before Thursday’s open prevented the open from testing 2749.00. Which also prevented holding a test of 2749.00. Probing positive territory above Wednesday’s 2881.00 and 2892.50 cash session and futures closes peaked upon attacking 2799.00, reversing back down to 2749.00. But it was no longer the open, making its test less likely to hold. So, its reaction up to 2787.50 was reversed down to the next lower objective at 2721.00 and the room for noise under it down to 2712.00. Reaction to a China trade war headline bounced again to 2766.00 still closed back under 2749.00 at 2732.00 at the cash session close, and futures settled at 2745.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming further after the futures close did extend back above 2749.00. Extending relentlessly through the intraday China headline’s peak at 2766.00 touched 2785.00 at Europe’s opens. Reversing from there was also relentless until testing the China headline’s peak down to 2764.00 — still above 2749.00 and well into positive territory.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing under 2749.00 is relevant. If not rejected, then its next lower objective would be in-play. But already having tested its next lower objective at Thursday’s low, confirming Thursday’s close under 2749.00 all but ensures putting into play the next lower objective, which would overshadow this week’s decline. Oversold RSIs already requires retesting Thursday’s 2712.25 low. Neutralizing it before closing back above 2723.25 could be bullish, but not nearly as bullish as then closing back above 2749.00. Closing under 2709.00 would essentially open the floodgates. Rallying overnight to indicate gapping up above 2749.00 is a good start at rejecting Thursday’s close under it. Quickly reversing a swell of optimism at the open would suggest that buyers are expended. Meanwhile, having trended down into yesterday’s cash session close, maintaining a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias-environment high could form a session-long rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2773.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2767.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2752.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2748.50 | 2752.00 |
| …would target | 2769.50 | 2773.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2718.50 | 2722.00 |
| …would target | 2705.00 | 2708.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
If you liked the last two days…
Thursday ultimately closed under 2749.00. 
Being “lower prior highs,” it was the decline’s next lower objective. Regardless of bouncing from its overnight tests and late morning test, or even from its afternoon test, only closing back above it would indicate its support had held.
It didn’t.
Interestingly, the next lower objective under 2749.00 is 2721.00 with room for noise under it down to 2712.00. The afternoon’s 2712.25 low reacted up 54 points to 2766.00. It reacted back down to 2727.00, retracing the session’s last surge that had been triggered by a China headline.
Oversold RSIs already make the 2712.25 low’s retest likely. Closing under 2749.00 makes the low’s retest less likely to hold. Closing above 2749.00 still would have retested 2712.25, but from a position of strength. Regardless, oversold RSIs can be neutralized overnight, so that opening back above 2749.00 could form an Isolation setup.
Otherwise, retesting 2712.25 post-open would be likelier to break under 2709.00, which opens the floodgates. So, if you liked the last two days, and a retest of Thursday’s low on Friday or overnight isn’t immediately rejected, then you’re going to love the likely meltdown that follows into and out of the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.