S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday didn’t delay probing fresh lows under the 1.1278 target that was met Monday. The fresh low was shallow before bouncing to test Monday’s “higher prior lows” as resistance. The target’s slow approach, its immediate influence, and now its quick attraction from above, all suggest that optimism remains too high from a contrarian perspective for a bottom to be credible.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s retest of 1291.30 was its first intraday test, and needs to hold for a recovery above 1302.00 to signal the trend reversing back up. Closing any lower would instead suggest the pullback is extending.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed Thursday’s 14.95 low by a nickel before bouncing back into positive territory. Closing above 15.10 would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, closing under 14.95 would now signal a more substantial pullback underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking under the 149-11 pullback limit Monday allowed room for extending down to 147-17/147-25, which narrow ranging overnight and Tuesday did not try to exploit. Completing the pullback Wednesday would be helpful to greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already trending up into Tuesday’s open extended to fresh highs at 62.50. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 61.70 as support. Closing under 60.50 would reverse the trend down. But Wednesday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, that might not react favorably initially, but should provide an anchor to recover a knee-jerk reaction down.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending back down Tuesday attacked Friday’s 2.66 low close, which should at least be filled, if not also probed before establishing a durable bottom. Otherwise, closing back above 2.75 would still get a benefit of the doubt for already reversing momentum back up.
Mid-day Update… No bias > Late bias.
Neither bias signal touched, so beware delayed efforts.
This morning’s opening touch of its 2872.25 bias-up signal never recovered, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2863.75 bias-down signal. Probing it down to 2862.25 reversed back up to natural resistance at 2871.00, “unchanged” from yesterday’s close.
Extending higher would have suggested this morning’s dip was only “backing-and-filling” which I had described this morning. Its reward would at least fresh highs around 2875.50, if not also launching a new upleg. But 2871.00 held its test and retest entering and exiting the noon hour.
Bias-up 1 tick higher wasn’t even touched. This is a no-bias environment. And there really is no bias, as today’s range continues narrowing. Although 2871.00 is being tested again, and its break would likely target 2875.50.
So, if this morning’s dip wasn’t “backing-and-filling” then was it a warning shot across the rally’s bow? Another downleg would likely be much steeper and deeper. And the 2862.25 low’s retest is already required for its RSIs having been simultaneously oversold there.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 3, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s payrolls week, so a couple of private sector looks at employment are released. ADP is both high-profile, and influential to price action. Meanwhile, it also allows us to calibrate sentiment to some degree. And any reaction to its pre-open report is often duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2867.25 | 2871.25 |
| …would target | 2872.25 | 2876.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2860.75 | 2865.00 |
| …would target | 2854.75 | 2859.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dry Cleaners might be better.
Range bound opening.
Piercing yesterday’s late 2873.50 high by 1 tick before this morning’s open was actually a delayed trending attempt. 
Overnight action had otherwise been contained, and fluctuating around unchanged. Delaying an overnight trending attempt until coming to within 60-90 minutes of the open tends to fail, and often reverses direction.
For essentially opening unchanged and within a sideways overnight range, post-open action has been as choppy and trendless as might be expected: Higher highs could have developed first, but didn’t. The opening bar touched the 2872.25 bias-up signal and dropped to 2867.00. Bouncing to 2871.00 reacted down lower to 2865.75, bouncing to 2871.00 again.
Having touched the bias-up signal before triggering no-bias, an offsetting test of its 2863.75 bias-down signal was put into play. Recovering the 2872.25 bias-up signal through 10:30 would have invalidated that, but the attempt has stopped 2 ticks short. Probing it this late would be “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure — but possibly not until having reached 2875.50.
Meanwhile, and inflection point at 2871.25 wasn’t touched until 10:30 instead of sooner, and isn’t yet overlapped by at least 3 ticks to be more than noise. Back under 2869.00 would start to signal the offsetting test of 2863.75 is underway.