S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Wide sideways range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Monday would likely be rewarded by some form of retesting two-week old highs, to at least 2855.00 if not also probing room for noise up to 2869.00. The least of it was tested overnight after gapping up Sunday night to and through the morning’s bias-up parameters. Continually overlapping the 2859.00 open through the first hour formed a “Dry Cleaners morning” that resolved up to test the rest during the afternoon bias environment. Surging after the position-squaring window up to 2873.50 reacted back down to 2866.50, holding 2869.00, and not putting into play 2902.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
While Bitcoin experiences a nostalgic overnight $850 surge, neither bias signal has yet been touched by a choppy overnight range. After bouncing back up to 2872.00 through the futures close, Globex gapped down to 2867.50. Its reaction up to 2872.00 was reversed to lower lows at 2865.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly sideways through Europe’s opens attacked this morning’s 2863.75 bias-down signal to within 3 ticks. Now resolving up, or trying to, has retraced to within 3 ticks of the earlier 2872.00 Globex high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Last night’s pullback resembles the pullback that didn’t happen at the two-week old high. That was the session-long Thursday rally, and limiting the next session to backing-and-filling could have resumed the rally last week. Instead, its weekend was entered and exited by a collapse to fresh lows that seemingly confirmed the distributive pattern. But price only ranged there, eventually recovering to now overlap the distribution range’s upper-end. In charting, pattern means pattern, so this area’s retest should resolve similarly if the distributive pattern remains intact. Stretching the rubber band a little further this morning would still be vulnerable to reversing down, until the timing window lapses. Maintaining fresh highs into the noon hour could become something more substantial to the upside.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2866.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2863.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2869.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2872.25 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2868.00 | 2872.25 |
| …would target | 2874.75 | 2879.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2859.25 | 2863.75 |
| …would target | 2852.25 | 2856.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” setup, for appearing ahead of the weekend, had made Monday’s open likely either to gap up or to gap down. 
And it didn’t gap down. In fact, Sunday night’s open had already gapped up and extended through the morning’s bias-up parameters. Hovering at its highs into the open without bothering to correct reflected more optimism lying ahead. And even the “Dry Cleaners morning” setup didn’t prevent resolving up into the afternoon.
The reward for Friday’s pattern resolving up was to retest two-week old highs. By proxy, gap-fill, or actually probing room for noise would suffice, and the rally neutralized it all. Room for noise up to 2869.00 was met and held through the afternoon bias environment. Surging after the position-squaring window up to 2873.50 still found time to retrace entirely back down to 2866.50, so 2869.00 held. Otherwise, its recovery would essentially put into play 2902.00.
So, still overlapping the upper-end of the two-week old distributive pattern raises the question, where’s the distribution? Was it the cause of Monday’s restrained rally? Or, has strong-handed distribution suddenly become so universally patient that another upleg is underway? If the latter, then its upleg should be steep. If the former, then another second-day reversal like this area’s last test should be obvious by noon Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Unfinished business below at the 1.1278 low close’s gap-fill was neutralized Monday morning. Its slow approach, and obligatory support upon actually being tested, suggests that it will be probed before a recovery can be credible.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite originating from Friday’s pre-open touch of the 1291.30 pullback limit, its intraday bounce didn’t persist through the weekend as Monday’s open was greeted by a reaction down to Thursday’s 1293.50 low. The buy signal remains unchanged at 1308.50, but with fresh lows likely first.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday fluctuated entirely within Friday’s range, hovering above the gap back down to Thurdsay’s close. No lower low or retest of the low is required, and the buy signal remains unchanged at 15.25.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to the 149-11 pullback limit was probed Sunday night down to 149-00 and then lower intraday Monday to attack 148-00. There is room for noise to 147-17/147-25 before even suggesting momentum is reversing down.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above all prior highs on Friday had remained untested as “unfinished business” to attract price higher after the weekend. Sunday night did rally back to Friday’s high, and trended higher Monday morning to attack 61.75. Pullbacks must hold 60.55 to maintain upside momentum.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down to a fresh extreme Friday afternoon all but requires a lower low before reversing up can be credible. The setup is usually fulfilled Monday, but gapping up out of the weekend helped to prevent a fresh low intraday. However, the new price action creates a new setup that would form a bottom by closing positive after probing a fresh low intraday.
Mid-day Update… Keeping it up.
Late bias-up keeps momentum intact.
Fresh highs up to 2864.50 during the morning’s bias environment had confirmed upside momentum remained intact. 
The confirmation came a little early, and could have been rejected back under 2859.00 (this morning’s Dry Cleaners signal level). But the pullback limit was only attacked before recovering through the noon hour, reflecting weak-handed sellers.
The noon hour’s exit probed the 2866.00 two-week old high by 2 ticks, fulfilling the likely structural reward for gapping up. The high gap’s 2855.00 retracement, or the 2861.00-2863.00 gaps could have neutralized the attraction. But their reactions down haven’t attracted reinforcements, so upside momentum remains intact.
Now the afternoon’s 2864.00 bias-up has triggered, late. It could have been rejected back under 2863.25. But the reversal signal was only touched, and the signal was recovered in time to trigger. The high’s room for noise up to 2869.00 — which is also this afternoon’s bias-up target — remains in-play.
Having fulfilled the structural reward for gapping up, reversing down would leave no “unfinished business” to help recover. Meanwhile, the recent intraday distributive pattern keeps today’s rally vulnerable. And I’m not at all biased by really wanting to label my next post “April Fool’s”.