S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 2, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Durable Goods report is both high-profile and has a track record for influencing price action Coming one day after divergent reflections from ISM and PMI creates an environment for surprise in one direction or the other.
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2859.75 | 2864.00 |
| …would target | 2864.75 | 2869.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2853.00 | 2857.50 |
| …would target | 2847.50 | 2851.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sunny side up.
A “Dry Cleaners” morning setup combines with a higher objective.
The overnight rally to 2860.00-2861.25 had ranged sideways back down to 2854.50, holding up through the open. Its optimism was never corrected pre-open, and the 2859.00 open blipped-up to attack the overnight highs. Its 5-point reaction down never threatened a sell signal before surging to 2863.50 on 10:00 econ reports.
The fresh high completed the 2-week old high close’s 2861.00-2863.00 gap fill. Its 6-point reaction down held above the renewed bias-up target to trigger a doubly-renewed bias-up signal. That’s not very reliable, being so far removed from the price action that created the bias levels.
But the high’s gap fill does suggest its 2866.00 high print will be retested, too. And its retest is likely to include a visit to 2869.00. So, 2869.00 is essentially in-play. Which is credible despite all 5 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints having overlapped the 2859.00 open to form a “Dry Cleaners morning” setup. The setup suggests that price action will be unwieldy, which might delay extending to 2869.00. But 2869.00 remains credible so long the bias environment exit is holding the 2856.00 post-open lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Gapping up, indeed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
China trade and Brexit probably helped Friday’s opening gap up to 2836.00, testing 3-day old highs by 1 point. But only momentarily as price began dipping to test 1-day old highs down to 2823.00. Quarter-end portfolio window dressing probably supported flat-to-higher ranging up to 2834.00 through late-afternoon. Blipping-up into the last 90 minutes to 2840.00 was retested after the close, which was otherwise still overlapping the opening print.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up above the bias-up signal to 2844.50 and spiked higher immediately through the bias-up target to attack 2854.00. Trending higher touched 2860.00 and reacted back down to 2854.50 through midnight. A fresh high up to 2861.25 has also reacted back down to 2854.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s equilibrium close and ineffectual optimism could be overcome only by gapping up. The reward would be to retest two-week old highs, at least up to 2855.00, probably also the gap-fill back to the 2861.00-2863.00 high close, if not also to probe the two-week old 2866.00 prior high (to 2869.00). All but the latter was done overnight. Which makes a second consecutive close back above 2019.50 less significant to rejecting the week-old bearish trend change: Gapping up to resistance instead of trending there is difficult to attract reinforcements, and upside momentum is jeopardized by touching resistance without also exceeding it through a timing window. Regardless, closing back under 2013.00-2019.50 Monday isn’t necessary to confirm the trend is reversing down, but shouldn’t be far behind if the two-week old distribution pattern — of reversing intraday rallies — confronts Monday’s rally attempt. Wouldn’t THAT be the perfect April Fool’s Day prank.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2853.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2848.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2842.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2838.50 | 2842.50 |
| …would target | 2844.25 | 2848.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2829.75 | 2834.00 |
| …would target | 2823.00 | 2827.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.