S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Here comes monthly payrolls. Indications of the market’s reaction can be gleaned from Wednesday’s ADP report, which is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. Any noticeable reaction is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports, of which there are several. Two Fed speakers help to keep the day focused on Friday’s report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:45 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
11:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2597.75 | 2598.75 |
| …would target | 2607.25 | 2608.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2581.00 | 2582.00 |
| …would target | 2572.25 | 2573.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stop me if this looks familiar.
Post-open plunge only erases opening gains.
The overnight range was already flat-to-slightly-higher. The 2587.75 bias-up signal was briefly probed several times. A more obvious effort began within 90 minutes of the open.
That was during the window of vulnerability — i.e. How valid can a breakout be if the entire overnight range was poised but never did so.
So, a fresh post-open high to 2597.50 was reversed down sharply, and a lot. Bias-up didn’t trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2566.50 bias-down signal. Already the sharp reversal has extended down to 2573.50. More important is the fresh low printed AFTER 10:15, which helps to confirm its direction.
Meanwhile, the fresh low is coinciding with obligatory support — that is yesterday’s reaction down into the futures close at 2573.50-2575.00. Its reaction is bouncing to test 2585.00.
Back under 2580.25 and 2577.75 would likely resume the decline. And although a bigger bounce is possible, it’s too late to recover the bias-up signal in time to avoid triggering it.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Calm again, before another storm?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s narrow sideways range could have resolved either way, despite already probing 14 points under Friday’s 2642.00 close. Monday’s plunge tracked the only bearish template in operation at the open. While it fulfilled this leg’s likely objectives of retesting the recent 2796.00-2698.00 and 2585.00 lows, they weren’t required the same day. The late bounce from 2552.00 touched 2585.00 as resistance before backing off 5 and 10 points into the cash session and futures closes. Maintaining its break confirms the next lower objective in-play is 2509.00-2511.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
It’s almost the opposite of yesterday. Monday’s late reaction down from 2585.00 was eventually retraced, and then probed up to 2589.00. But only momentarily, as the balance of the night has been sideways in a 10-point range around 2585.00. Flat-to-higher, slightly, as 2590.00 was just touched, but its reaction is heading back down to 2585.00. The description nearly matches yesterday’s, albeit probing slightly higher instead of slightly lower.
If, then…
The objectives of Monday’s template didn’t have a timing element, and neither does the next lower objective. But duplicating Monday’s plunge on Tuesday would introduce a likelihood of extending down aggressively, perhaps even tracking the 1987-style crash template. The overnight range’s restrained optimism would be bullish intraday if the opening 15 minutes of volatility becomes less restrained and more optimistic. That’s credible, but not the likeliest resolution. Meanwhile, immediate post-open weakness could quickly retrace all of the post-close gains, and still be targeting a probe under yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2593.25 would be likely to trigger the 2587.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2576.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2586.75 | 2587.75 |
| …would target | 2600.25 | 2601.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2565.25 | 2566.50 |
| …would target | 2553.75 | 2554.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.