S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fluctuating narrowly Thursday keeps alive the corrective bounce targeting 1.1970, with room meanwhile down to 1.1830 before resuming the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing 1300.00 overnight was retraced enough for Thursday’s open only to overlap Tuesday’s 1296.50 high. It was still being overlapped through the afternoon, and needs to hold as resistance for a near-term pullback to remain likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing higher overnight was unable to extend higher intraday, consolidating within the 17.11-17.20 range. A fresh high intraday Friday is possible in this pattern while still maintaining potential for one more corrective dip.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight nevertheless spent much of Thursday still overlapping 152-20, before the afternoon trended back up to test this week’s 153-02 high. Closing above 152-20 does help to greet Friday’s barrage of econ reports and Fed speakers from a position of strength, which might be called upon to help absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to test 151-18 as support.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday’s lows extended down to the 50.25 buy signal. Its first intraday reaction up was retraced only up to 50.75 before dipping back down to 50.25, keeping alive the upside momentum — which is likely anyway, since Thursday’s EIA was greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up above 2.89 Thursday all but invalidated Wednesday’s close under it. Invalidated, in that the EIA reaction extended higher to test 2.99, and has potential for extending to 3.04. All but, in that the news was greeted from a position of weakness, which should limit its upside and still fill the gap back down to Monday’s 2.83 close.
Mid-day Update… Clinging to the high.
No new bias-up, but an attraction above.
This morning’s bias environment had recovered up to 2552.25. Lapsing broke higher into the noon hour up to 2553.25. Being both Tuesday and Wednesday’s high, its resistance is likely only obligatory. So far, so true, as the noon hour’s dip to 2550.50 has been recovered back up to 2553.25.
This afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t trigger. Neither did no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment that isn’t restrained by the bias signal or attracted to the bias target.
As it happens, this morning’s 2557.00 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” And it remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 2550.25 as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Almost every event and report on Friday’s econ calendar is both high-profile AND reliably influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open Consumer Sentiment. Meanwhile, 3-4 Fed speakers keep the focus on data.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:25 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
11:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks (?)
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2554.75 | 2552.75 |
| …would target | 2559.00 | 2557.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2549.50 | 2547.50 |
| …would target | 2543.00 | 2541.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bullish, or Bull$#!t?
Upside bias contradicts context.
It’s all about context. Context tells us whether to rely on trending or to suspect it. And if relying on it, what is that trending’s objective. Objectives are a function of pattern structure and calculation. So, it’s all about structure and calculation. And context. Structure, calculation and context. Timing of certain behaviors can provide the context for knowing which structural and calculable objectives are likely. So it’s all about timing, behaviors, structure, calculation and context.
And even then…
Last night’s relentless one-way trending down wasn’t rejected through the open. Neither was it confirmed by a post-open low to prevent a bounce.
But not rejecting the overnight decline allows for a bounce, while making that bounce likely to fail.
A bounce did develop, after holding the bias-down signal’s 2549.00 calculation as support through the 10:15 bias timing window. That puts into play an offsetting test of the 2557.00 bias-up signal’s calculation. Structurally, holding support’s test through the open would be rewarded by probing yesterday’s 2553.50 high.
This is all within the context of being in a distributive area. Aggressive probes higher in this range are repeatedly knocked back down. Hard, either post-open, intraday, or overnight into a gap down.
Even then…
The bias signal’s near-term upside gets every benefit of the doubt. In fact, it has already produced fresh post-open highs at 2552.25. Less than 5 points higher would fulfill the bias objective. That’s not a little. And this morning’s recovery attempt isn’t coming from a position of strength, not having quickly rejected the overnight direction. But the upside will get every benefit of the doubt so long as 2549.00 holds as support.