S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was preceded by an overnight dip had tested 2545.00 and retested it by 5 ticks, warning that sellers weren’t gaining traction for their efforts. In fact, the open had recovered up to 2548.00 from having dipped overnight. Firming a little further consolidated around 2551.00 ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. A brief swing from 2552.00 to 2449.00 and back up again continued improving to close back at Tuesday’s 2553.25 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Not surprisingly, this area has proved once again its propensity for distribution. Price has only trended down since surging into yesterday’s close. Firming 2 points from 2549.50 ahead of Europe’s opens was apparently disappointed and resumed trending down to fresh lows. Now yesterday’s 2548.00 open is being probed by a point.
If, then…
There was no “unfinished business above” after Tuesday’s session, and none after Wednesday’s session. Today’s open is indicated to gap down, which would create new unfinished business above, had yesterday’s new high close been above all prior intraday highs. But it wasn’t. Rather, it was AT Tuesday’s 2553.25 high, so the gap won’t require being filled. None of which requires extending down, which continues to depend upon breaking under a relevant low. Relentless one-way trending overnight is often vulnerable to losing its sponsorship at the open, so not extending down at the open could quickly become bullish. And if sellers can’t exploit the overnight trending, then a fresh high targeting 2557.00 becomes likely.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2547.75 would be likely to trigger the 2549.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2551.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2559.00 | 2557.00 |
| …would target | 2564.25 | 2562.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2551.00 | 2549.00 |
| …would target | 2545.50 | 2543.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Firming since Wednesday’s open greeted the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes near the 2551.00 session highs. A delayed surge collapsed. A very shallower delayed surge to only 2552.00. And relatively collapsed, only 3 points to 2449.00.
The setup was smaller and later than Monday and Tuesday’s gaps up that both collapsed more substantially. But it was similarly distribution. And its collapse also held at or above relevant support to avoid reversing the trend down.
Monday and Tuesday’s collapses were retraced entirely the following day. Wednesday’s was retraced already, back to Tuesday’s 2553.00 high. Another 4 points higher is likely, but still vulnerable to the same distributive template that triggered reversals down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gaping up again Wednesday filled another gap outstanding from the decline at 1.1900. The corrective bounce has room up to 1.1970, while still being likely for its resolution to break sharply under 1.1760.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning’s narrow ranging around unchanged doesn’t in itself undermine the upside momentum, while keeping the pattern within the orbit of its 1277.50-1280.50 pullback objective. The afternoon’s dip to 1288.00 makes the pullback objective likely to be tested soon, if at all.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Wednesday morning tried holding the 17.11 support whose break would start to signal a corrective dip underway. Still fluctuating around it at the close did open the door to extending down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness stopped short again of testing the 151-18 pullback potential. Wednesday’s open firmed to resume ranging around the 152-20 resistance that would at least challenge 153-14 where a bottom could be sealed.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher overnight to test 51.40 was nevertheless retraced to continue testing 49.75 as support Wednesday morning. Recovering into the close does all but require Thursday to extend the rally.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above the 2.89 buy signal Wednesday fluctuated between 2.93-2.96 through the morning. But the close dipped back under 2.89, all but ensuring a that the gap back down to Tuesday’s 2.83 close would be filled.
Mid-day Update… Minutes by minutes.
Firming optimistically into FOMC Minutes.
Price action was somewhat inhibited ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. The noon hour’s fresh highs tested this afternoon’s 2550.75 bias-up signal. Twice. Its reaction down touched the intraday rally’s 2549.25 pullback limit. Twice. The news is now out, and the 2549.25-2550.75 range is still holding.
Not even a relief rally. How about a relief blip-up? A fresh high touching 2551.50 would raise the sell signal from 2548.00 up to 2549.50.
Nothing would require 2551.50 to hold, and any delay in reversing down from its test would be bullish. New highs are nearby, but keep stops tight as the pattern has been collapsing from this area.