S&P
Mid-day Update… And the guest house’s kitchen sink.
And higher.
The open’s surge up to 2267.75 had formed a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that tends often to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its minimum target at 2260.50 was tested down to 2259.50, and then price started reversing back up. A buy signal that triggered above 2264.00 has only now violated a pullback limit after touching 2273.00.
Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest. But nothing higher is required. Ever. The triangle’s reversal has been more substantial than its false break. Retesting Sunday night’s high was likely to visit 2270.00. And this afternoon’s 2272.00 bias-up target was met, while testing it too late to renew the bias-up signal.
A reaction down to 2269.00. could extend to 2266.50 and not yet begin to damage the chart’s uptrend.Greeting tomorrow’s FOMC news at this point in the pattern would be strength. Having probed fresh highs ahead of the news, today’s close must be back under 2266.00 to at least suggest the upside momentum is lapsing.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday morning’s calendar is busy, and also both high-profile and influential. But the highlight is the afternoon’s FOMC events, with its long-awaited rate hike AND the year’s final quarterly Q&A with Fed chair Yellen — both reliable opportunistic with volatility and multiple sizable moves.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2271.75 | 2266.50 |
| …would target | 2277.00 | 2272.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.50 | 2260.50 |
| …would target | 2258.75 | 2253.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And the kitchen sink.
Probing above Sunday night’s high.
The opening bar touched yesterday morning’s 2259.00 high and extended quickly through it. Maintaining its recovery through 9:45 made the bias-up signal likely to trigger. Never mind that, as its 2261.25 bias-up target has been exceeded. And exceeding the 
bias-up target through 10:15 puts into play the next higher target. Never mind that, too, as that was at least 2266.50, which was tested already up to 2267.75.
A symmetrical triangle formed at the high. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its first break, whether or not temporary, was triggered under 2264.00 and has fulfilled its 2260.50 minimum objective. Probing under it has so far still overlapped it, and not broken lower.
Back above 2264.00 would signal fresh highs in-play. Retesting Sunday night’s high made 2270.00 likely to be tested, too. And that would be too shallow to qualify as a “more substantial reversal in the opposite direction.”
But the open’s high doesn’t require a retest. And anxiousness ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is eerily absent, as buyers throw everything AND the kitchen sink into the rally. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2259.00 wouldn’t itself be a sell signal, but it would undermine the upside momentum
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally has extended to retest yesterday morning’s 2259.00 high by 2 ticks. If tested post-open, then maintaining or rejecting it through the 9:45 could be predictive of the next leg — either up to probe Sunday night’s highs above 2265.00, or down at least to fill the gap back to yesterday’s 2251.50 cash session close. Still overlapping 2259.00 won’t qualify either way. Gapping up to the test makes it all the more difficult, and all the more relevant.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.