S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2198.50 | 2197.75 |
| …would target | 2204.25 | 2203.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2189.75 | 2189.00 |
| …would target | 2183.50 | 2182.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers lacking sponsorship.
REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.
The open was greeted nearly unchanged from yesterday’s 2192.00 futures close. Post-open action was initially hesitant to trend either way, not until being halfway through — exactly halfway through — the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The timing could have been more abrupt to qualify as the characteristic a morning rally required. It certainly couldn’t have been less abrupt.
So, fresh highs got up to 2195.50 stopping short of the 2197.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 2197.00 through 10:30 could still invalidate that it wasn’t recovered in time to trigger. Meanwhile, it should now define the morning’s upper-end if tested.
Neither recovery path was followed at the open, so a morning rally is likely to be only temporary. In fact, a reaction down is now testing 2191.75, whose break would start to signal that the post-open hesitation is exerting its influence. The 2187.50 bias-down signal should define the morning’s lower-end, unless broken through 10:30. Retesting the overnight lows would likely extend deeper to also test 2181.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.
The bounce off of overnight lows made it back up to 2191.00 ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report. The knee-jerk reaction was relatively muted, spiking down to 2187.00 and back up to a fresh high at 2191.50. Gapping up enough to reverse the trend up isn’t likely. Isolating a retest of the overnight low is possible, but difficult. A morning rally should begin abruptly at the open, so any weaker strength — or weakness, itself — would be credible for extending down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Buyers backing off.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Even just threatening to attack 2192.00 was likely also to visit 2187.50, which was the decline’s minimum downside target. Thursday’s open at Wednesday’s late 2202.00 resistance did reverse down to probe fresh lows, extending through the session until touching 2187.50. A fresh low was probed briefly down to 2186.00. The late dip was isolated to the final hour, again suggesting the decline is by weak-handed sponsorship. A last-minute bounce targeting 2192.25 was met and held.
Overnight action’s new info…
Fulfilling last-minute buying pressure had required the bounce to extend immediately, if at all. And it didn’t. Slowly trending back down to 2187.50 became steeper at Europe’s opens, dropping to fresh lows at 2184.25. Now a bounce is testing 2187.50 as resistance.
If, then…
Extending down any deeper after the open would likely also visit “lower prior highs” at 2181.00. Probing lower overnight doesn’t yet mandate this lower objective. But probing lower overnight does open the door to a recovery setup other than gapping up. And that would be accomplished by isolating a post-open test of the 2184.25 overnight low, already rallying back above prior lows coming out of the open. Otherwise, holding 2181.00 or breaking under it will be vulnerable to Friday Factors that are influenced by the weekend’s impending illiquidity.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered before an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2197.75 | 2197.00 |
| …would target | 2203.75 | 2203.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2188.25 | 2187.50 |
| …would target | 2181.75 | 2181.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.