Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s relentless rally from 2782.75 had extended 20 points to 2803.00. And that was before a last-minute surge through the open extended to neutralize the “unfinished business” back to Monday’s 2807.75 opening gap. Obligatory resistance was expected, but its reversal nearly retraced all of Thursday’s close down to 2787.00 by noon. The balance of the session rallied back up to within 3 ticks of the open’s high, closing at 2804.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Another last-minute Trump China trade tweet triggered a buying frenzy at Sunday night’s Globex open. Gapping up to 2814.00 quickly extended to attack 2820.00. I added a warning to the chaRTroom screen that since last week’s similar setup had held up and eventually extended this sequential Sunday’s similar setup would be vulnerable to reversing down. And the balance of the night has only trended back down, through midnight and Europe’s opens, probing below the earlier Globex low to 2809.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday afternoon’s recovery was slightly less likely to reverse down immediately, likelier to first extend higher. Having missed the opportunity Friday morning for being satisfied with only an attack on last Monday’s 2814.00 high to 2812.50, extending higher had become likely to probe fresh highs up to 2817.50. So, Sunday night’s gap up has neutralized upside attractions. Being a similar setup to last Sunday suggests resolving differently by Monday’s open. This week’s instance lacks the complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, but the setups are still comparable. I’ll be reluctant to sell prior to its retest so long as the open remains within the overnight high’s orbit, which begins above the open’s 2812.00 opening low. The area below it down to Friday’s ~2808.00 highs is a gray area, but exiting the opening 15 minutes any lower would be treated as a bearish Globex-flip — likelier to trend down this morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2808.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2809.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2812.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s market was range bound without any of the week’s earlier volatility catalysts. Range bound, but still choppy, resisted by 2793.00-2794.00. An overnight swing down to 2781.75 was nevertheless contained within Wednesday’s range, which contained Thursday morning’s swing down to 2783.50. The afternoon’s swing was even narrower, although the last 3:37-3:52 Position-squaring window collapsed momentarily to pierce the morning’s lows at 2782.75. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory suggests that weak hands are bearish, meaning strong hands are bulls. Not quite a buy signal, but reinforcing an immediately bullish move Friday. The narrowing extended range has limited predictive value otherwise.

Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately bullish moves don’t get much more immediate than this. Thursday’s late dip had bounced 6 points through the close to prove its weak-handed sponsorship. Globex immediately dipped back down to attack the late intraday low to within 1 tick, but no lower, and immediately began recovering. Thursday’s highs were soon probed up to 2795.50, and then to 2798.50, hovering there through midnight. Another push higher to 2802.50 just after Europe’s opens immediately began hovering there, too.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
March is coming in like a lion, and that’s not just a favorable comparison to yesterday’s inside day. The post-close Market Tour pointed out that with Thursday’s narrowing range behind, and weekend illiquidity ahead, credible trending would have to appear sooner rather than later Friday. Based on the overnight levels of influential resistance, the pattern’s next higher objective would neutralize the outstanding gap back up to Monday’s 2808.00 open. One challenge in this setup will be in attracting post-open reinforcements, which is hardly assured after having trended relentlessly overnight. That resolution will then be influenced by Friday Factors, which help the open’s bias to persist through the noon hour. Bias-up seems very likely to trigger, but not necessarily bias-up renewed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2796.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2798.00 bias-up target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2800.50 would be likely to exceed 2798.00 at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s drop to 2780.50 had stabilized 7 points higher, but that was still under Tuesday’s close and in negative territory. A post-open surge to 2792.50 essentially erased both, but only momentarily before collapsing to test the next lower objective at 2777.00 thanks in part to China trade headlines. The objectives test and retest were isolated to the bias environment, inhibiting more sponsorship for the day. The balance of the session rallied up to 2796.25, back in positive territory and above the open’s initial high. The cash session close was still overlapping Tuesday’s 2791.50 open and close, part of the problem that had led to Tuesday night’s decline.

Overnight action’s new info…
Post-close action had extended another point up to 2797.25, which the Globex open quickly rejected on the way back down to 2790.00. Hovering there shallowly through midnight began accelerating the pullback to attack 2781.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. RSIs diverged positively to enable a bounce that has been testing and retesting 2788.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s recovery had stopped short of levels that would ensure extending higher without delay. But it recovered enough to allow room for a reaction down to be only a temporary pullback, without yet extending the decline to 2754.00. The overnight drop so far is contained entirely withing yesterday’s range, and nothing yet requires probing either end of it. But both bias-down parameters have been attractive, and the 10:15 resolution to their test might be the next signal either way.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2791.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2780.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2781.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s reversal from its 2814.00 recovery high had extended down overnight to 2783.25. Perhaps it was a the product of anxiousness ahead of Tuesday morning’s Fed Chair Senate testimony. Firming back up to 2791.50 at the open put into play a test of 2802.00, which was met at the 2803.25 late-morning high. A mid-day dip was recovered coming out of the environment to retest the morning’s high. But no higher, and the last half-hour trended back down to 2791.50, flat with the open.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late slide didn’t hesitate before extended lower to quickly print 2786.50, or before reacting back up to 2791.50 resistance. Not very interesting until trading on the CME was halted around 7:40 pm ET, leaving a 3-hour hole in the charts. Testing 2793.25 before and after midnight collapsed to test and retest Monday night’s 2783.25 low. Bouncing 4 points through Europe’s opens was resolved back down again, this time to test Friday afternoon’s 2781.50 low. Now another bounce is testing 2786.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Retesting Monday night’s dip isn’t surprising. Yesterday’s intraday recovery was rewarded only with choppy sideways ranging. Its retest by proxy or by probe was likely. Opening back above Tuesday’s 2789.50 low could isolate the weakness to help launch a retest of Monday’s highs. Otherwise, lower lows have room down to 2777.00 before suggesting the drop from Monday’s highs is heading for 2754.00. The catalysts for volatility still include today’s 10:00am Fed Chair testimony, Turmp’s Hanoi visit, and escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2781.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2784.25 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2790.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2794.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s Globex open had been preceded 20 minutes earlier by a favorable Trump tweet about China trade. Gapping up to 2799.50 extended only momentarily to 2803.50 and ranged narrowly sideways, before retracing the gap to 2794.50. That found actual buyers, and Monday’s open was greeted at 2808.00. Extending higher to 2813.50 at the bias environment high was isolated by noon, reversing the intraday trend. A lot. The balance of the session slid to within 2 ticks of the 2794.50 Globex low. Monday’s opening gap up above all prior highs was left outstanding for retest from below. Also, last Thursday’s bearish Isolation setup was invalidated unless reinstated by proxy at Tuesday’s open.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s close had made a hold-short compelling. Globex didn’t delay extending down to within 3 ticks of what is this morning’s bias-down signal at 2791.50. A bounce soon failed and the decline extended down to 2783.50 well before midnight. Recovering back up into and out of Europe’s opens touched 2791.50. Its reaction down to 2785.00 was fully retraced to retest 2791.50, where another reaction down is developing.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Sunday’s Trump tweet was only the first taste of the week’s catalysts for price action. Trump is in Vietnam meeting with South Korea’s Un, just as India-Pakistan conflicts escalate. Meanwhile, the Fed Chair’s 2-day semi-annual Congressional testimony begins today, with the embargo on his opening remarks is to be lifted at 9:45 — just as the opening 15 minutes of volatility would normally lapse. Enhanced volatility could both gap down to reinstate last Thursday’s bearish Isolation setup, and also bounce to neutralize the attraction above at yesterday’s open. Regardless of the bigger picture agenda, volatility through tomorrow morning should offer plenty of trade setups… Here’s yesterday’s video example of a live Risk:Reward analysis, which will be added to the Knowledge Base.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2795.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2791.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.