Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to Thursday’s 2782.00 noon hour high paused only briefly before extending up to Wednesday’s pivotal 2787.50 highs. And then not much longer before extending to fresh intraday highs at 2794.50 by noon. Stopping short of Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme,” the bias environment fell 2781.00 in reaction to a China trade headline. But the final hour recovered to overlap Wednesday’s 2790.75 high at the cash session close. Extending higher through the futures close reached 2795.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
A Trump China trade tweet announced that progress was sufficient to abandon Friday’s deadline for hiking tariffs. The tweet came only 20 minutes before Sunday night’s Globex open, easily triggering a gap up to 2799.50. Follow-through to 2803.50 ended the reaction as quickly as it had begun. Narrow sideways ranging eventually dipped to 2794.50 testing gap-to-gap 61.8% support. Its reaction improved steadily to attack earlier highs by Europe’s opens, then extended to fresh highs at 2805.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
We have to wonder what last night’s organic open would have done, if not for the tweet’s artificial catalyst. Its immediate effect proved underwhelming, quickly peaking within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target. Recovering its retracement to fresh highs is now a retest of prior resistance, and not necessarily a breakout with traction. The more recent fresh high does now have complexity that the original surge lacked, qualifying as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Fresh highs maintained during Monday’s opening 15 minutes would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Credible for extending, but not required. Reacting down would be credible for retracing back into Friday’s range. A likely attraction below would be Wednesday’s 2790.75 high, which Friday’s close was still overlapping, and which was maintaining Thursday’s Isolation setup that is hanging by a thread.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2696.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2799.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2806.00 would be likely to exceed the 2803.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday opened back under the earlier 2784.50 Globex low. This isn’t in itself relevant lot, but it’s bearish after having probed the prior day’s high overnight. Which Wednesday’s night’s 2798.00 had done, forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. The 2778.00 open extended down 9 points to 2769.00 through 10:15, then ranged flat-to-higher back up to the open. Noon’s attack on 2782.00 launched the next downleg to eventually form a Double Bottom attacking 2764.00. The last half-hour’s bounce attacked 2776.00 at the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight held support at 2770.75 support. That was Thursday’s last identified sell signal left untriggered through the close. It remains untriggered, as price action since midnight rallied 16 points to test 2787.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not rallying yesterday afternoon suggests that the bearish Globex-flip will influence this morning, too. Its trigger was 2784.50, which is being probed now as resistance. Recovering 2784.50 through the open would start to undermine this morning’s bearish influence. But that would be only a warning, while gapping up above Wednesday’s 2788.00 highs would suggest the 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” retest is underway, first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2788.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2784.50 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2793.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2781.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2779.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s open each were within ticks of 2780.00, separated by a relatively narrow overnight range. The range was maintained through the noon hour while price fluctuated between either end. The afternoon’s reaction to FOMC Minutes — the most volatile I’ve seen in years — probed each extreme momentarily to 2791.25 and 2773.75. Still the 2786.00-2787.00 close held within the range at its upper-end. The session left no “unfinished business” and contained no predictive value.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s final hour had ranged relatively narrowly, which persisted during Globex’s first several hours. Favorable trade talk headlines triggered a 13-point surge up to 2798.00, interrupted by a Running Correction. Narrow hovering at the high plateaued until breaking lower just after midnight, retracing the Running Correction’s lower quadrant at 2792.25. The surge’s first leg was eventually retraced by 61.8% back down to yesterday’s “lower prior highs” at 2787.00. Three hours ranging narrowly suddenly collapsed down to 2783.50 while I was warning of exactly that during the Market Tour recording. The overnight rally’s Running Correction was complex, creating a “new Globex trend extreme.”

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday had not decisively confirmed Friday’s close above 2751.00-2757.00. Wednesday didn’t reject it, either, and held Tuesday’s range. Rallying to 2798.00 would seem to settle the matter, and decisively, if developed intraday. But the overnight surge’s retracement back into yesterday’s range is threatening to isolate the 2798.00 test to the overnight, forming a bearish Isolation setup. That would reject the upside, because this instance has an added degree of difficulty from the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, often the same day, so overcoming its upside attraction would reflect even greater rejection. Look out below if the rejection triggers a Globex-flip, as well, which I describe in detail during the Market Tour recording. Having said all that, trying but failing to trigger an Isolation or Globex-flip setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.75 would be likely to trigger the 2790.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The three-day holiday weekend ended by gapping down from an otherwise relatively narrow extended range between 2773.00-2780.50. Tuesday’s 2766.00 opening dip to Friday’s last relative low reacted straight up to unchanged at Friday’s 2776.00-2777.00 close. Surging again into noon probed overnight highs up to 2784.00 at noon. Higher highs into the final hour go to 2787.50 but gained no traction, and 1-minute RSI was only on the cusp of being overbought. The balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged, a second consecutive close above 2751.00/2757.00. But not decisively positive, so neither was its confirmation that new highs had been put into play.

Overnight action’s new info…
Despite soon bouncing back up to 2782.25, fresh lows briefly attacked 2774.00 before midnight. Despite soon bouncing back up to 2780.75, more fresh lows briefly attacked 2773.00. A shallower bounce, so far, is only overlapping 2776.00-2777.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s late dip back down to 2776.00-2777.00 hasn’t been rejected overnight, which I would have expected if the late dip there was from weak-handed sponsorship. Instead, still fluctuating around it overnight, digging out lower and lower lows, suggests otherwise — that the rally which is being retraced was created by weak-handed sponsorship. But that’s not yet enough to indicate its retracement is extending down, which all but requires gapping down or at least immediately extending to exit a timing window back under Tuesday morning’s 2766.00 low. Rallying out of the open would mean the rally’s next higher objective will have been established, albeit vulnerable to backing-and-filling first more gradually, from a position of strength likely to be recovered.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.00 would be likely to trigger the 2768.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2776.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2765.00 open was 10 points above Thursday’s high. But that was modest compared to being 35 points above the overnight low, having rallied relentlessly since Europe’s opens. The balance of the session was a choppy 10-point range between 2763.00-2773.00, until the position-squaring window surged to 2777.50 through expiration. WedEX had no bearish influence, so it’s not required to have a bearish influence Tuesday morning unless the open were to gap down deeply enough. Meanwhile, closing above 2757.00 and 2751.00 suggests the rally since Christmas is more than a temporary bear market correction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up 5 points to 2782.50. It reacted down almost immediately to begin a directionless range between 2773.00-2780.00 that persisted through all of Monday’s abbreviated session, and well past midnight. Then, as if an alarm clock sounded, the market seems to have awoken from its slumber. Trending was finally attempted soon after Europe’s opens, so far dipping down to 2766.75 (testing this morning’s bias-down signal) where RSIs have diverged positively. The break from an otherwise sideways range comes too early to ensure it’s false and any likelier to recover.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Topping here need not immediately reverse the trend down noticeably, but it probably needs to stop rallying immediately. Friday’s underperformance by NDX and outperformance by the Dow makes a bigger rally leg from here suspect. Otherwise, historically a fresh trend extreme close on expiration like Friday is usually exceeded, and a fresh trend extreme close on Fridays usually requires an eventual higher close. Both could be considered anomalies by gapping down deeply enough to reinstate WedEX’s bearish influence. Not only triggering bias-down but also gapping under Wednesday’s 2762.00 prior highs to form an Island out of Friday’s range, if not also under 2757.00 and/or 2751.00 to reject Friday’s close above them and help to prevent a second consecutive confirming close. Meanwhile, trying to reject Friday’s bullish elements, but not, could be as bullish intraday as the rejection would have been bearish. Similarly, testing bias-down without triggering it would put into play a probe above Sunday night’s highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.25 would be likely to trigger the 2767.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2772.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.