Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s pre-open to post-open surge was very deceptive to those that didn’t know better. Surging from a fresh overnight low at 2906.00 to attack Tuesday’s 2917.75 high might have suggested an opportunistic session ahead. But not with the day’s volume likely to be thin. Choppiness persisted during the morning, with a dip back down to 2910.00 recovering to momentarily pierce a new high at 2918.75. Still, no trending, as the entire afternoon ranged narrowly between 2912.50-2915.50. The dead afternoon undermines the reliability of a passively bearish WedEX that triggered on the day.  “Unfinished business” was left outstanding at 2908.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Price has improved, but nothing’s yet obviously predictive. Yesterday afternoon’s narrow range had ended on an upswing to its 2915.50 upper-end, which initially firmed further through the Globex open up to 2918.00. Its reversal back down into the range was recovered to touch yesterday’s 2918.75 high. Its reaction down barely attacked yesterday afternoon’s high as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
If overnight price improvement is going to be predictive, then it’s time to start being obvious about it. And this pattern only offers a chance for being bullishly predictive, not bearishly. The first step would be to indicate a gap up. Not only because no traction was gained yesterday, but also to convert the passively bearish WedEX into actively bullish. That can be done by proxy of gapping up or immediately extending to fresh highs. So, whether at Thursday’s open, or later intraday, the rally is free to resume at any time. All of which would require ignoring the 2908.00 attraction below. And a pullback has room deeper down to 2903.00 just as noise — momentum doesn’t even threaten to reverse down from above 2900.00. .

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2920.25 would be likely to trigger the 2918.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2915.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Probing well under Monday’s 2892.25 low down to 2883.50 was recovered to greet Tuesday’s open at or above 2897.00. Probing lower only overnight formed the basis for an Isolation setup, to be rewarded by recovering Friday’s 2917.25 overnight high. Quickly extending the open up through Monday afternoon’s last relative high at 2903.00 served by proxy to signal the two-day pullback had ended, also implying a recovery of prior highs. Both were fulfilled Tuesday afternoon. Their tests up to 2917.75 held, as the close reacted down to attack 2910.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing up to 2915.25, which is this morning’s bias-up signal, reacted down to 2909.00. Another bounce was shallower, bouncing only to 2913.25, which has defined price action ever since. And currently, the range’s lower-end at 2909.00 is being attacked.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Retesting Friday’s highs shouldn’t be the recovery’s ultimate objective, but incidental to the uplegs now underway. A top should not be forming, although Wednesday might appear that way. The Yom Kippur holiday’s thinner volume will inhibit probing a prior extreme, which enables retracing recently covered ground. A pullback could easily dip to 2903.00 alone as noise. That said, thinning volume can make it difficult to stop price that extends higher anyway, which an appropriate catalyst could trigger.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45  above 2909.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2908.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2912.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2915.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday was book-ended by trade war news. Sunday afternoon headlines triggered a gap down that hovered 2904.00 overnight. Testing and attacking Friday’s 2911.25 fresh high close before and after Monday’s open found plenty of sellers post-open. The morning bias-down signaled and its target was met, as were the afternoon bias parameters when more headlines announced that tariffs would be announced post-close. The optimal 2897.00 pullback limit was probed by 4-5 points, and then recovered 1 minute after the close, too late to be bullish.

Overnight action’s new info…
Another trade war headline onslaught, and another brief effect. The forewarned tariff headlines were greeted at 2893.50, which is Tuesday morning’s bias-down signal. The first reaction collapsed down to 2887.50, which is Tuesday morning’s bias-down target. Another dip extended down to 2883.50, where a rally began, recovering to 2893.50 by midnight. The rally resumed and recovered to greet Europe’s opens in positive territory, absorbing a brief dip before extending higher to touch 2903.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Before yesterday’s close, Monday’s pullback would have ended as a very natural pullback by holding the test of 2897.00‘s “lower prior highs.” After yesterday’s close failed that, reinstating upside momentum could be done by proxy at the following open. But being one timing window later would require opening above the next prior high, which is 2903.00. That’s where the open is currently indicated. More so, another potentially bullish setup has developed after probing under Monday’s low, which is to isolate its probe to the overnight by opening back up within Monday’s range — and not probing back under it intraday. Avoiding either setup to instead open under yesterday’s low could still complete the pullback by holding a test of 2887.00-2888.00. But any deeper of a pullback would be bearish, while fully forming at least one setup without also triggering it would be as bearish as it would have been bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2901.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2897.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted at the morning’s 2912.25 bias-up signal, and only probed it momentarily before dipping back into Thursday’s range. Higher highs had been probed up to 2917.25 overnight into and out of Europe’s opens, forming a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. But that was left outstanding while the morning dipped back down to 2906.50 and the afternoon fell to 2902.00. But a late afternoon surge returned to Thursday’s 2912.00 high, and the 2911.25 close was slightly positive on the day.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trade war headlines Sunday afternoon triggered a gap down Sunday night. But it was relatively shallow at 2909.00, even after sliding to 2904.00. Narrow ranging there into Europe’s opens was reversed up to Friday’s 2911.25 close. Its reaction down is now testing 2906.00-2907.00 as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close was a new trend high, but not above prior intraday highs, which would have entrenched the rally. Recovering from more backing-and-filling is possible, but the rally requires no more of that. So, resuming the rally today requires gapping up or else waiting until late afternoon. Gapping up would have been probing higher usually by now — there’s still time, but it needs to be obvious soon. Meanwhile, bubbling and percolating with probes into positive territory testing 2914.50 would help to pass time while awaiting a clear window to rally. Otherwise, extending the pullback has room to test 2987.00 without beginning to threaten reversing the trend down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2907.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2908.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday was likely to extend Wednesday’s rally, and the open was required to gap up if the rally was going to resume. Indeed, Thursday’s 2905.00 open was already 5 points above Wednesday’s high and 15 points above the overnight low, and a brief consolidation resolved up sharply to 2912.00. Reacting down to 2902.00 stopped optimistically short of touching Wednesday’s “lower prior highs,” which was an appropriate characteristic for this stage of ending the two-week old pullback. The reaction was recovered to within 1 tick of the open’s high — stopping pessimistically short, which tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. The balance of the session ranged choppily, narrowly sideways to the highest close since August’s high at 2910.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s narrow, choppy range persisted through midnight, dipping only to 2907.50. Breaking higher into and out of Europe’s opens tested 2917.00. A pullback down to 2913.25 is now trying to resume the rally.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Dipping only to  2902.00 Thursday created a position of strength, or anchor, that allows a deeper dip to “lower prior highs” at 2897.00 if needed. Thursday afternoon’s extra dip may already have checked that box, which we’ll know by Friday’s open maintaining a gap up. Gapping up is necessary to resume the rally immediately, since Thursday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its effort. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Other reliably predictive Friday Factors may come into play in the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2915.25 would be likely to trigger the 2912.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2909.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.