Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
A durable bottom all but requires probing under Wednesday afternoon’s 2907.50 plunge lows. That didn’t prevent Thursday’s open from gapping up to and through what had been “lower prior highs” at 2914.00, and extending above the critical 2919.00. Extending higher didn’t invalidate the downside requirement, either. And the extension was substantial, persisting through the bias environment, into and out of the noon hour up to 2932.00. Dropping 15 points from there down to 2917.00 expended a lot of selling pressure in a short time frame, and avoided closing under 2919.00. But Thursday afternoon’s sellers gained traction — exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low and entering the final hour even lower — keeping alive Thursday afternoon’s selling pressure into Friday morning.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late bounce up to 2922.00 was immediately retested at the Globex open. It extended to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2924.50 bias-up signal. Things have changed greatly since then. An aggressive drop through Europe’s opens probed under yesterday’s afternoon’s low to 2915.00. Its reaction up has fallen to lower lows under yesterday morning’s low at 2911.75.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing back above 2914.00 and (barely) 2919.00 creates a position of strength to help recover from lower lows. Which will be needed, because the traction gained by Thursday afternoon’s drop makes Friday morning likely to trend lower. Overnight lows are only now testing yesterday morning’s low, so the Isolation setup is probably moot. Meanwhile, probing under Wednesday’s 2907.50 low has room to 2900.75 while still being likely to recover 2914.00 and 2919.00 through the close. Closing much lower than that would threaten to extend deeper into next week.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2915.50 would be likely to trigger the 2916.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2919.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s bounce had attacked 2929.00 before dipping into Wednesday’s open. After holding a dip to almost 2920.00, another bounce got to 2930.00 ahead of the FOMC policy statements. Its reaction extended up to 2936.00. And that was the end of that. Dipping into the bias environment exit plunged through the Fed Chair’s Q&A through the final hour down to 2907.50. “Lower prior highs” at 2914.00 was tested, and maintained its break, as did 2919.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Literally, overnight action has ranged sideways. Gradually firming into the Globex session eventually attacked 2916.00 just before midnight. That was retraced gradually back down to touch yesterday’s 2907.50 low through Europe’s opens, as they essentially played “catch-up” to discount yesterday’s late U.S. plunge while they were closed. In the briefer time since then, 2916.00 has been retested, and is still being tested now.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Exiting Thursday’s open above 2914.00–2919.00 would be optimal for a morning bounce, albeit probably not durable. Launching a durable rally would be premature. The pattern’s next lower attraction is 2900.25. Closing under 2919.00 has significantly threatened to become a more substantial drop, which would be validated more so by maintaining the decline’s steepness, and less so by simply closing lower. A recovery would likely begin gradually, and not necessarily be obvious or gain confidence soon. In either case, a probe under yesterday’s low is likely — the sideways overnight range may seem stable, but at this stage it is no more a reflection of strength than was yesterday’s last-minute narrow ranging at the low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2917.00 would be likely to trigger the 2915.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2914.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Failing to gain traction during the afternoon doesn’t prevent trending from extending the next morning. But it requires that extension to begin by gapping. Monday afternoon’s buyers had failed to gain traction up to 2925.25, so Monday night’s bounce tried to extend the rally into Tuesday morning. But the overnight bounce up to 2934.25 peaked upon filling the gap back up to Friday’s close. Its reaction greeted Tuesday’s open back at Monday’s highs, where bouncing immediately could have resumed the rally, but the reversal only continued. The critical 2919.00 support was probed twice Tuesday afternoon but held its recovery through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last test of 2919.00 had reacted up into the 2921.00 close, and continued higher into the Globex open. Not even a consolidation interrupted the rally until eventually attacking 2829.00, where a pullback dipped to 2924.50 through Europe’s opens. Flat-to-higher ranging since then has been hovering pessimistically short of the high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Gapping up only above Tuesday’s 2928.25 noon hour high would be optimal, but still would qualify for gapping up into a morning rally. That may be moot by the market open, as hovering pessimistically short of the high is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, breaking yet higher before the open would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Anxiousness ahead, this time ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events, could restrain price action again into and out of the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2927.75 would be likely to trigger the 2926.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence wasn’t. A “new Globex trend extreme” had formed overnight, which was neutralized by piercing it 6 ticks up to 2947.00 during the pre-open minutes. Although that had avoided the earlier threat of a Globex-Flip setup under 2938.00, the morning dipped back down to 2938.50. Other than gapping up, bouncing to 2944.00 was the only bullish behavior. But that reversed  down just when the WedEX’s influence should have pushed price higher. Quite the opposite, the afternoon resolved down to its 2932.50 bias-down target through the expiration close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Saturday we discussed whether Friday’s post-open decline was defensive posturing ahead of Monday’s new tariffs on China. Even if already fully discounted, a knee-jerk reaction to the news would be normal. So, Sunday night’s gap down to 2929.50 wasn’t surprising or unusual. A pattern soon formed that targeted 2921.25-2923.00, and its upper-end was touched. Bouncing back into the range held up through Europe’s opens, inspiring confidence for retesting the open’s gap up to 2930.00. That has formed an Ascending Triangle.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Lower price doesn’t necessarily equate to traction. We applied that to Friday afternoon’s shallow relentless drop back to 2836.00 support — lower lows were probed too late to be relevant. We’re now applying it to last night’s gap down. Unless selling pressure exits a window under a relevant level to gain traction, it is actually pent-up buying pressure. We’re not relying on the WedEX to be  influential this morning if it wasn’t on Friday afternoon, but it should be very influential if it does compensate for the delay. Meanwhile, while the open’s gap disqualifies a Globex-flip setup, probing Friday’s lows overnight does create potential for an Isolation setup. All of which is probably premised on China tariffs being discounted. Speaking of whom, we haven’t heard from China, and retaliatory tariffs would deserve at least another knee-jerk reaction down to 2919.25 before suggesting anything more substantial.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2936.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2932.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s thinly-traded narrow range resolved just hours before Thursday’s open. Gapping up 12-13 points to 2928.00 then trended higher relentlessly into the afternoon to attack 2941.00. Its proxy served to trigger an actively bullish WedEX. Thursday afternoon’s final hour entry and proxy window gained traction, which the position-squaring window neither exploited nor rejected.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex initially consolidated Thursday’s gains while ranging flat-to-higher up to 2942.50. That became slightly more pronounced into and out of Europe’s opens, extending briefly to 2945.50. Its complexity creates a “new Globex trend extreme”. The reaction has now retraced back into yesterday’s range to test the 2938.00 earlier Globex low.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This dip back into yesterday’s range is testing the earlier Globex low, and breaking it through the open would reverse the trend down for at least the morning. There is meanwhile now another upside attraction or influence in addition to this afternoon’s bullish WedEX. It’s the overnight probe of fresh highs that formed a “new Globex trend extreme,” which requires intraday retest. Thursday afternoon’s traction doesn’t immunize Friday morning from a pullback. And a morning pullback wouldn’t necessarily interfere with the afternoon’s plans. Regardless, keep in mind that expiration — Quad Witch, no less — can accentuate, accelerate, or prematurely abandon otherwise reliable signals. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2937.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2940.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2943.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.