Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had held a test of the 2893.00 earlier overnight low (basis Dec), which avoided a bearish morning since overnight action had probed Tuesday’s high. But it didn’t prevent triggering the 2889.50 bias-down signal, or quickly fulfilling its Its 2884.00 bias-down target. But avoiding the bearish setup should have been as bullish as it would have been bearish. That was demonstrated by only a temporary surge to 2900.25 which was only a knee-jerk reaction to a headline. And it was retraced entirely back down to its 2888.00 origin. The close recovered 2894.00-2897.00 — still the highest close in a week, but buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially reacting down to 2891.00 and eventually down to 2890.00, overnight action has otherwise ranged choppily. Yesterday’s late 2897.25 high was finally pierced by a couple of ticks, and its 3-point reaction down to 2894.00 is recovering through yesterday’s high by several ticks up to 2891.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
[Reminder: The front-month rolls forward at this morning’s open to Dec which trades at a 5-point premium to Sep]… Having failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon, resuming the rally without delay all but requires gapping up Thursday. Not already probing higher overnight would likely already be probing lower, and be more vulnerable to trending down. Overnight hasn’t probed a prior low nor touched its bias-down signal. The window only now is probing a prior high, which is still early enough to extend ahead of the open. Yesterday’s close was retesting the highest close in a week, “unfinished business” above at 2895.50 (basis Sep) was neutralized, and now both are being probed overnight instead of rejected — so, today is an excellent opportunity to end the 2-week old pullback, and not doing so would be bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2901.50 would be likely to trigger the 2900.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2898.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s retest of 2884.50 resistance had held once again, this time with help from China tariff headlines that triggered a slide to 2867.25 through Tuesday’s open. That test of both bias-down parameters held, and offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters were fulfilled as the bias window ended and as the noon hour began. Things went sideways from there, ranging around the morning’s 2890.75 bias-up target and the afternoon’s 2891.25 bias-up signal, down to 2887.50. No new unfinished business was left outstanding, and no traction was gained.

Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility wasn’t much different overnight than it was Tuesday afternoon, but it was more productive. Initially flat-to-lower, a dip to 2886.25 was recovered back up to and through Tuesday’s highs to 2895.25. Coming within 3 ticks of “unfinished business” at 2895.50 has neutralized it, and price has since dipped back down to 2890.75.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Without gaining traction Tuesday afternoon, immediately resuming the morning’s rally Wednesday would require gapping up above 2893.00. Currently, only probing temporarily above Tuesday’s high isn’t indicating a gap up… or a gap down. And having probed overnight above yesterday’s intraday high, exiting the open under the 2888.00 earlier overnight lows would reverse trending down for at least this morning — if not also through tomorrow morning. Overnight highs neutralized the 2895.50 objective, so maintaining its recovery should point higher. Reversing down could test “lower prior highs” at 2882.00-2883.00 simply as noise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2895.50 would be likely to trigger the 2894.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2890.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rosh Hashanah holiday worship had its usual impact on market volume Monday, inhibiting both trending and volatility. An overnight bounce touched 2886.75, neutralizing its attraction above. A post-open blip-up to 2888.25 held the retest, as well as both bias-up parameters. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters was put into play at 2871.00 and 2864.75. Reversing down through the noon hour got to only 2876.50, before ranging sideways around 2777.00-2780.00 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming steadily recovered up to 2885.00 by midnight. Hovering there into Europe’s opens gradually weakened, and then slipped to 2780.50. A 45-minute Flag collapsed 10 points to attack 2871.00 before 1-minute RSI finally diverged positively. A bounce up to 2876.00 is still consolidating.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
No traction was gained yesterday, so trending beyond its range this morning all but requires gapping open, which is currently indicated. Recovering to open within yesterday’s range that tries trending beyond it would be likely to fail. Meanwhile, having neutralized the 2871.00 “unfinished business” put into play yesterday morning — it’s also this morning’s bias-down target — opening under yesterday’s range would be likely also to test 2864.75 today, and be vulnerable to new pullback lows targeting 2857.00. Upside attractions at 2892.25 and 2895.50 can’t be considered until at least rallying back into yesterday’s range.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2879.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2877.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2875.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
An otherwise unremarkable overnight range at 2872.00-2879.00 had briefly pierced slightly above and below it. And then sharply below it, just  before the open. Suddenly breaking a steady overnight range within 2 hours of the open is often a false break, and touching 2865.00 snapped back up 20 points to reject tests of both bias-down parameters. Recovering 2884.50 into the noon hour would have triggered a short-squeeze for Friday afternoon. But reacting down to the 2877.00 inflection point was blind-sided by a tariff headline. Its knee-jerk reaction collapsed to 2868.00. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher, closing at 2874.00-2875.00. Unfinished business above at 2886.75, 2892.25 and 2895.50 would have to wait. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Friday afternoon.

Overnight action’s new info…
Whether Friday’s pattern would resolve up, or down, another corrective bounce had room up to 2879.75-2881.50. Sunday night immediately began firming and extended up to 2881.75 well before midnight. Its reaction down attacked 2877.00 into Europe’s open where the overnight rally resumed. Fresh overnight highs just probed Friday’s high up to this morning’s 2886.75 bias-up target’s resistance.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Happy New Year! Today’s volume will be thinner because this is the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah. Thin volume is also vulnerable to producing the least likely resolutions, or to the biggest detours. One or the other is underway overnight. Friday’s buyers failed to gain traction, so the pullback can extend to lower levels like 2857.00, unless today’s open were to gap up above Friday’s 2884.50 high — which is being tested now. Not triggering the recovery setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish, like extending the pullback down to 2857.00. Meanwhile, relentless overnight trending often either reverses direction at the open, or else extends if not reversed through the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2877.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2884.50 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2888.75 would be likely to exceed the 2886.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s first half-hour ranged around unchanged at 2999.00-2889.00. But the attraction to retest Wednesday’s oversold RSIs at its 2877.25 low pulled price down to 2869.00 before the bias window lapsed. A bounce held a test of 2877.25 before retesting the low by another point down to 2868.00 as the after noon bias window opened. Rallying back up to 2884.50 failed to close higher, testing 2880.25 as support through the close .

Overnight action’s new info…
Not much has developed overnight as the market waits for this morning’s Employment Situatiopn report. Globex initially attacked 2871.00 as support through Asia’s opens, and then eventually tested 2881.00 as resistance into Europe’s opens. Reacting back down has attacked 2872.00 as support, with the payrolls report just 90 minutes away.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering 2880.25 and 2884.50 Thursday would have sealed a bottom and greeted this morning’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Perhaps that was prevented by pessimism ahead of the report, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Absent that, gapping up sufficiently — like, above Thursday morning’s 2893.00 high — could serve by proxy for buyers to gain traction and rally sharply higher through the morning, initially attracted to Wednesday afternoon’s 2895.50 bias objective that is “unfinished business” above. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 2857.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.