Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Dropping back down to Tuesday’s lows overnight had all but ensured that Wednesday’s open wouldn’t gap up. And that was the only way to resume rallying immediately since buyers hadn’t gained traction. More so, Tuesday’s lows — and the overnight retests — had narrowly avoided fulfilling their potential down to 2884.50 or 2880.25. But Wednesday’s first hour took care of that, collapsing down to 2877.50. Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low require its eventual retest. Meanwhile, a couple of higher lows formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher while triggering the afternoon’s 2888.75 bias-up signal. Stopping 2 points short of its 2995.00 bias-up target, the balance of the afternoon only ranged flat-to-lower back down to within 1 tick of 2884.50. Unfinished business was left outstanding at 2877.50 below and 2995.00 above.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s ranging has persisted overnight in a wide, sideways choppiness. First bouncing back up to 2891.00 didn’t hold, and Europe was greeted by dipping back under Wednesday’s lows down to 2882.00. That’s where and when the dip stopped, at least for now, bouncing to attack yesterday afternoon’s highs near 2893.00. Now another dip is probing 3-4 points back into negative territory and attacking yesterday afternoon’s low down to 2885.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing at or around 2888.00-2889.00 wasn’t decisive enough to assume whether the next “unfinished business” to be resolved is of 2877.50 below or of 2995.00 above. Testing the lower objective first would at least tell us the weakness since last week has probably been defensive posturing ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. That’s the more bullish scenario for greeting the news — testing the lower objective, probably down to 2875.00, and bouncing from its test. Meanwhile, 2995.00 could be probed by another 10 points before even beginning to suggest the pullback is being recovered, instead of just corrected temporarily.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2884.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2882.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The 3-day holiday weekend was exited back at Friday’s 2891.25 low. A brief bounce resolved down to a fresh low at 2886.00, which was retested after probing a fresh session high at 2901.00. The low’s retest down to 2885.50 which nearly touched the 2884.50 attraction for the current downleg.  The balance of the session firmed into the close, and the entire session developed in negative territory. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging sideways at yesterday’s highs up to 2890.50 began reversing down into Europe’s opens. Extending down tested and retested yesterday’s low down to 2885.00. Ranging at the lows up to 2889.50 for several hours is just now trying to break higher.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s intraday rallies had failed to leave oversold territory, and none gained traction for their efforts or left outstanding higher objectives. None of which is necessarily bearish, but not gapping up today has left open the door to retesting yesterday’s low — especially since yesterday’s low did not fully exploit the room below to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Gapping down keeps that lower potential alive, while also creating an attraction above to the gap back up to yesterday’s close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2891.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 2897.50 only attacked Thursday’s 2902.00 close, holding the 2898.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction quickly fulfilled the bias objective, an offsetting test of the 2907.50 bias-up signal. But just opening within the range of Thursday’s lows had made lower lows likely, probably down to unfinished business below at 2892.25. Which trending back down into the noon hour fulfilled. The afternoon ranged sideways at the lows again, keeping alive potential for extending down deeper to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Trade headlines inhibited any trending, until Canada’s trade negotiator held her press conference as the close rallied up to 2906.00. No traction was gained, and no new “unfinished business” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Closed US markets and no news from Asia on Sunday night (having no audience for its news) left Europe’s opens more influential. Until then, price had ranged flat-to-lower to 2903.00. But a surge at Europe’s opens tested 2910.00 and eventually extended up to 2912.50. All of which was retraced to attack 2910.00 into Monday’s Globex close. Monday night’s Globex open has been a round-trip — first, testing Friday’s low down to 2902.00 and bouncing again to test 2912.00, then returning back down to Friday’s lows. Typical 3-day holiday weekend stuff, until getting aggressive, now sliding sharply to 2892.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
REMINDER: I’m traveling this week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour… The week was likely to begin with a struggle between an attraction below, and unfinished business above at 2918.00. Two rally attempts Sunday and Monday nights stopped 6 points short of 2918.00, which suggests two things — that potential for a deeper pullback remains alive, and that eventually resuming the rally should probe even higher. So, that deeper pullback is underway if Tuesday’s open doesn’t hold Friday and Monday night’s 2901.75-2902.75 lows. That’s compared to Friday’s 2901.00 cash session closing equivalent. Similarly, almost anything holding above Friday’s 2906.00 futures close should be bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2904.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2897.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2909.00 had ultimately extended to exit the bias window at fresh session lows down to 2904.00. The afternoon’s 2911.00 bias-up signal triggered, but extending to its 2918.00 was prevented by an afternoon headline that triggered a plunge to 2895.50, closing at 2902.00. Closing under 2909.00 failed to confirm higher trend objectives that were signaled Wednesday, and afternoon sellers gained traction for their effort. But new unfinished business above at 2918.00 suggests the dip will be recovered.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing through midnight touched the morning’s 2904.00 low, and greeted Europe’s opens unchanged at yesterday’s 2902.00 close. Collapsing 5 points was retraced back up to 2902.00, but only to 2902.00, and has since extended to attack yesterday’s 2895.50 low to within 1 tick.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thinning volume ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend has two contradictory consequences. While the market is robbed of natural volatility, it is also vulnerable to knee-jerk reactions triggered by artificial catalysts. Yesterday morning’s range around its gap down exemplifies the non-volatility, and the afternoon’s headline plunge reflects the vulnerability. But not all headlines get a reaction, and even while overnight weakness is attributed to continued overnight weakness among emerging markets, yesterday’s low still holds. That doesn’t prevent extending down further this morning, as already suggested by yesterday afternoon’s traction, with unfinished business below at 2892.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2897.50 would be likely to trigger the 2898.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open eventually surged, and extended 14 points into the morning’s high. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. So, what else is new. It was the fourth consecutive morning trending and the fifth consecutive afternoon range. The afternoon’s momentary fresh highs was a difference, so perhaps the pattern will soon be replaced. Meanwhile, the session closed  above 2909.00 to put into play higher objectives of 2925.50 and potentially also 2930.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s attempt to turn down had instead become the usual afternoon range. Its potential to 2908.00-2909.00 is nevertheless being tested overnight, down to 2907.00. The move isn’t substantial compared to yesterday’s 2915.00 close, but the trip there has been relentless. That is, notwithstanding the reaction to a favorable trade war headline that just blipped-up to 2911.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
testing this morning’s bias-down signal only overnight wouldn’t have a specific upside reward. And repeating the test post-open could still trigger bias-down. Which is entirely possible, and possible to extend down to 2892.25, 2884.50 or even 2880.25, despite Wednesday having been the last day to reverse the trend down ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend. Yesterday’s surge created even more room to expend selling pressure without it yet reversing the trend down, and there was already room. Regardless of its direction, keep in mind that mornings have been trending. There’s no requirement to repeat that behavior, but be careful stepping in front of a trending attempt before it tests resistance above or support below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2911.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2909.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2906.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.