Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2803.00 was already retracing the 2906.25 pre-open high, which was a “new Globex trend extreme.” The balance of the morning trended down to 2894.25, then ranged sideways back up to 2901.00 through the close. It was the third consecutive morning to trend through the bias window’s 11:30-noon exit. And it was the fourth consecutive afternoon to range sideways, gaining no traction. The morning’s 2892.25 bias objective is “unfinished business” below.

Overnight action’s new info…
Upon further thought? Tuesday afternoon’s range immediately broke higher, reaching 2905.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly there started breaking lower into Europe’s opens, back to unchanged at 2899.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The 2906.25 new Globex trend extreme requires an eventual intraday retest. So does the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2903.00 opening print, being above all prior highs. Their retest is likely to extend up to 2909.00. Their retests seemed to be underway last night, until the initial overnight rally was retraced back down to its origin. But not reversed… not, yet. Any dipping ahead of holiday bullishness should be completed today or early tomorrow. Unfinished business below at 2892.25 could be tested down to 2884.50 or 2880.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2901.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2902.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2893.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2888.50 is above all prior highs, and will want to be retested from below if the trend tries to reverse down. Its 2898.00 cash session close already fulfills for an eventual higher close as required by having made a new trend high close on a Friday. Monday trended up to close above the morning’s 2897.00 high, but under the 2899.25 noon hour high. The session high was within 3 ticks of the next higher objective at 2900.00. No traction was gained for the effort, since the bias window exit and final hour’s entry were under their prior timing window’s highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately began probing yesterday’s high. Hesitation at 2901.00 soon resolved up to attack 2904.00. Already dipping back to 2901.00 by midnight extended down to test yesterday’s cash session close by 2 ticks at 2897.50. Now a bounce is probing back above yesterday’s highs, and trying to recover 2901.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not gaining traction for yesterday’s rally isn’t necessarily bearish. It means that its sponsorship’s buying pressure was fulfilled. This is also measurable by having met and held the next higher objective within 3 ticks of the 2900.00 doubly-renewed bias-up target. Resuming the trend Tuesday morning isn’t likely without gapping up above Monday’s highs — which is currently indicated. A concern about the trend’s durability is now its impatience in probing a round number — 2900.00 ES, and 26,000 Dow — instead of expressing restrained optimism. Not gaining traction yesterday and holding a test of its next higher objective make the NEXT higher objective at 2909.00 extra vulnerable to reversing down. Meanwhile, having probed yesterday’s high overnight and then reversing to the earlier overnight lows at 2898.50, exiting the open any lower would reverse momentum down for at least the morning — and help to relieve excess optimism.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2896.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2900.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2901.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Already firming 8 points into Friday’s 2856.00 open was extended up to 2877.00 by noon. That was 3 points back above the prior week’s highs, whose test defined the balance of the session. A dip to 2871.00 into the afternoon bias timing window was recovered only enough to hover 1 point pessimistically short of touching the morning’s highs. Exiting the afternoon bias window entering the final hour within the prior timing window’s range failed to gain traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged immediately 4 points up to 2881.00. Higher highs were soon testing 2883.00. It was probed by 5 ticks into midnight, basically ranging flat-to-higher from 2881.25 to 2884.75 .

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The next higher objective at 2883.00 — which is also this morning’s bias-up target — was thoroughly tested overnight. Another new intraday high was all but required by Friday afternoon’s ranging, whether immediate, or as the recovery from gapping down under its 2871.00 low.. Another new high close is still possible, if not also required. But the overnight new highs don’t make an intraday high or new high close any more assured — not yet, not until coming to within 60-90 minutes of the open. The overnight range’s characteristics that are similar to Friday afternoon make it similarly vulnerable to greeting the open either above or below its 2881.00-2885.00 range.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2880.50 would b elikely at least to trigger the 2778.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2887.75 would be likely to exceed the 2883.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2892.25 and potentially 2900.00.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Since sellers weren’t retaking control at Thursday’s open, the first hour surged by default. The 11-point move covered a pre-open test of the 2858.50 bias-down signal and a test of the 2868.50 bias-up signal to its 2869.50 room for noise. But its excessive optimism couldn’t defend against a collapse back down to fresh lows testing 2855.00 by noon. The balance of the session ranged choppily back up to 2862.00. No unfinished business above was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s 2862.00 upper-end was probed slightly by midnight. Fluctuating narrowly around it into and out of Europe’s opens has resolved up. Now fresh overnight highs are testing 2865.50, a 61.8% extension from Thursday afternoon’s range, and at least a 61.8% retracement back to yesterday’s high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts yesterday, so trending beyond yesterday’s range this morning requires gapping. That’s was a much longer way for buyers as of the close, but now they’ve essentially recovered relevant levels around 2866.00. Meanwhile, that’s also resistance. Recovering it through the open would at least help to trigger bias-up and then to test yesterday’s highs. The knee-jerk reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s 10:00 remarks may inhibit opening action. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal is likelier to persist through the noon hour, which could leverage a morning bounce into a strong afternoon rally. All based on recovering relevant levels around 2866.00 through the open. Holding its test, or already dipping into the open would be vulnerable to the exact opposite, trending down into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2866.50 would be likely to trigger the 2863.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Closing flat with its 2863.50 open Tuesday had reflected indecision and distribution, enabling the afternoon’s decline to extend down sharply overnight to attack 2846.00. Recovering to greet Wednesday’s open at 2859.50 and extend through the morning to 2868.00 fulfilled the expected corrective bounce of the drop from Tuesday’s high. Dipping to 2860.50 through the 2:30 bias window exit produced a shallower bounce, which was retraced entirely into the close. The cash session close was within 3 ticks of 2863.50, still reflecting distribution.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower-to flat. The Globex open quickly firmed to probe 3 ticks above Tuesday’s 2863.50 cash session close. A reaction to China’s overnight intervention triggered a dip to 2857.50 by midnight. All of which has been retraced to retest Tuesday’s 2863.50 cash session close.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Leaving no “unfinished business” above Tuesday had also enabled the steeper, deeper overnight dip. Wednesday also leaves no unfinished business. But Tuesday’s drop was already underway organically, before that sponsorship was crowded out by the weak-handed knee-jerk reaction to a synthetic catalyst. That leg didn’t require a complete retracement to the headline’s origin, but it’s been done anyway. Can another downleg be credible before more fully rewarding Tuesday night’s buyers with fresh highs above 2874.00? Probably not if Thursday’s open doesn’t quickly start producing that downleg (I describe three setups in the Market Tour). But not gapping up to and/or through Wednesday’s 2868.25 high would not require a rally to target any particular higher objective.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2867.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2869.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2863.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2860.25 bias-down signal.