Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2863.50, which was the two-week old prior high. Probing higher through the noon hour neutralized unfinished business at 2866.25 and 2873.00. No-bias triggered as price drifted lower through the afternoon bias environment. The session’s close was back at 2863.50, representing indecision, and also touching the two-week old prior high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late news has had a big effect. Price had already turned down organically Tuesday afternoon, and headlines steepened the dive through the 2861.00 futures close. Plunging to 2852.00 and extending to 2847.00 into and out of the Globex open was retraced to 2857.50 by midnight. A 6-point reaction down was recovered into and out of Europe’s opens, but only started breaking higher 90 minutes ago and is now filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2861.50 futures close — 15 points off the low.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
A lot of ground was covered by yesterday afternoon’s decline, and another 161.8% into early evening. So, its 61.8% retracement would also fill the gap back to yesterday’s 2863.50 cash session close. That’s also yesterday’s open. All being resistance, which evokes an important question: As late as yesterday’s news was, and as slowly as the market appreciated it before the close, has the intraday crowd yet fully reacted to it? To the degree it hasn’t, opening back in negative territory would be that much more inviting to post-open selling, and that much more difficult to recover. Probing into positive territory would still have a lot of resistance above to prevent fully retracing yesterday’s highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2855.50 would be likely to trigger the 2857.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2859.00 would less likely to trigger bias-down, and above 2865.00 at 10:15 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2857.00 was overlapping Friday’s high, and it was under the 2860.00 overnight high. Restrained optimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but didn’t prevent a dip that filled the gap back to Friday’s 2851.75 close. Price never turned negative, and rallying into the noon hour’s entry attacked the open’s 2858.50 high. Ranging flat-to-higher finally probed the overnight high to attack 2861.00 before a Trump headline triggered a dip back to 2857.00. Hold-long was disqualified because the potential reward for gapping up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late reaction down extended through the Globex open, ultimately touching 2854.00 at its low. Monday’s 2858.25 close was recovered by midnight. Europe’s opens not falling apart encouraged firming just a little to 2860.00, and not falling apart from there resolved up to attack 2865.00. Complexity has developed above yesterday’s highs, creating a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires an eventual intraday retest.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This morning’s open is indicated to be the open that yesterday could have been. Friday’s rally had peaked upon testing the prior week’s “higher prior lows” at 2854.00-2855.00. Extending higher without delay probably would have gapped up above that structure’s 2863.00 upper-end. It wasn’t the only path higher, but none of the others were taken yesterday, either — instead, the overnight and intraday highs held the structure’s 61.8% internal retracement. But now this morning’s open is currently probing 2863.00, with the added assistance of having fulfilled its overnight pullback limit at 2854.00. Meanwhile, “unfinished business” left outstanding at 2866.25 during that structure’s forming had assured us last week’s interim dip to 2803.00 was only temporary. Its test is likely today, with the next higher objectives being 2873.00 and potentially 2883.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2863.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2861.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Overnight ranging up to 2849.00 and down to 2835.00 greeted Friday’s open toward the range’s lower-end. The open’s range was much narrower than overnight, but also noncommittal in either direction. But touching 2835.00 again finally started a rally that would extend into noon up to 2848.00. Reacting down 7 points to 2841.00 through the noon hour was reversed up by the bullish WedEX influence up to 2857.00. The prior week’s “higher prior lows” at 2854.00-2855.00 held as resistance through the close. But the rally still gained traction for its efforts by the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry both exceeding their prior timing window highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s support has persisted overnight. Its last reaction down had tested 2850.50, and firming from there extended at Sunday night’s open to 2855.00. Its reaction down tested 2850.50 before midnight, as did another, shallower bounce’s reaction down after midnight. A break lower seemed imminent, but it was circumvented by Chinese government intervention. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens probed Friday’s high by 3 points up to 2860.00. Now its reaction down is testing Friday’s high as support down to 2856.00.

If, then…
Trend extremes aren’t associated with expirations. So, an unlikely collapse today would likely be brief and recover entirely. Anyway, the first likelihood is to probe higher highs this morning since Friday’s rally gained traction. Even despite NDX underperforming S&Ps, and more so the Dow for a second consecutive session Friday, the market certainly seems like it wants to trend higher, at least in the near-term. There’s also follow-through from the bullish WedEX. And having peaked Friday upon testing “higher prior lows” from the prior week’s 2854.00-2863.00 consolidation, extending higher out of the weekend is likely to gap up to and/or trend through its upper-end. The overnight high has retraced that range already to 61.8%, so any higher would all but confirm the 2854.00-2863.00 consolidation’s complete recovery underway.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2852.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2854.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2857.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up 15 points 2835.00 near overnight highs Thursday extended higher into the noon hour to attack 2852.00. That expended 6-7 points more of energy than the likelier potential peak, so the subsequent reaction down encompassed the entire afternoon. The dip only reached 2838.50 in all of that time, in line wither being only a correction. A very last-minute surge through the close attacked 2846.00, where the morning’s rally had been likelier to begin correcting instead of adding the extra 6-7 points.

Overnight action’s new info…
No trending overnight, no fresh highs, and no significant gap open indicated. A bounce to 2849.00 was consolidated back down to 2843.00, even through Europe’s opens. More recently, a slide to fresh lows pierced yesterday’s late low by 3 ticks down to 2837.75. Its reaction is now testing the overnight range’s 2843.00 lower-end.

If, then…
Even without its last-minute surge, Thursday morning’s rally was only retraced and not reversed. But buyers didn’t gain traction for the morning’s effort. So, trending higher this morning would be likely by gapping up above yesterday’s afternoon’s 2849.50 high, which overnight action only attacked. Extending its reaction down under yesterday afternoon’s lows still has room down to 2835.50 before suggesting a deeper dip underway to 2826.00. Being a Friday — expiration, no less — the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2844.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2848.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2838.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2836.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s 20-point slide greeted Wednesday’s open at Monday’s close and under Friday’s lows, which served as resistance to the balance of the session. The open’s 23-point collapse to 2803.00 never extended any deeper any later, but it contained two intraday rallies. Barely, in the second rally’s case, which was just shallow enough to fulfill the fresh low close that Friday’s confirmed breakout had required. The morning’s low stopped 1 point short of its room for noise under the decline’s 2808.00 objective, which held two tests as support. The knee-jerk reaction to a headline coincided with an existing 2811.00 buy signal to produce the session’s second rally leg. The cash session’s 2819.00 closing equivalent was still overlapping 2818.00, a pivotal level that had served to attract morning sellers and now also afternoon buyers. Actively bearish WedEX triggered, as barely as Wednesday’s close had fulfilled the outstanding requirement for an eventual lower close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating around yesterday’s close was almost reversing when another headline (China sending delegation to U.S. for trade talks) triggered another favorable knee-jerk reaction. Its surge tested and retested 2832.00 before dipping to 2825.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. But that found support to launch another upleg probing higher to 2837.25.

If, then…
Did I mention yesterday that the door remained open to probing fresh lows Thursday down to 2802.00? Only three times, noting each reason why (including the afternoon’s 2811.00 headline origin being an attraction below). Reaction to overnight news has made that less likely — so long as the open gaps up enough launch a recovery leg, as I also noted. Interestingly, that’s Friday’s 2826.00 and 2832.00 “higher prior lows” (now support, assuming their recovery through the open), whose solid breaks yesterday had finally invalidated Monday’s bullish Isolation setup. Gapping up would also serve by proxy to invert yesterday’s bearish WedEX. WedEX’s inversion is official if maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, which would also negate any near-term attraction back down to 2802.00. The rejection of attractions below typically accelerates the pace of trending to attractions above.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2832.00 would be likely also to recover the 2830.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2828.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2824.50 bias-up signal.