Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s Inside Day began by rejecting a pre-open rally above Monday afternoon’s high. The combination of strength and reluctance produced a post-open reaction up from 2827.00 to 2842.00 at the bias environment’s high. Only 1 point higher was eked out during flat-to-higher ranging through the close, coming to within 1 point of Monday morning’s high. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding. Trading exclusively above 2826.00 confirmed the bullish Isolation setup remains intact.

Overnight action’s new info…
Asia’s opens sent price down from 2843.00 to 2835.00 by midnight. Firming into Europe’s opens tested and retested 2839.50, and its shallow reaction had just begun recovering, when the news hit from Turkey. Almost two hours of relentless selling has extended down to 2821.75. Yesterday’s opening low is being probed by 5 points, under Monday’s 2823.00-2826.00 closes that yesterday’s opening low had stopped optimistically short of filling.

If, then…
Tuesday was an Inside Day with an upward bias, which doesn’t gain traction for its effort. It tends to resolve bearishly without gapping up the following day. Some sort of probe higher was likely, if not for the news, but the initial overnight dip suggests that a probe above yesterday’s high would have swung down sharply, anyway. So, what why assess a pattern that could have been, when it clearly won’t? Artificial selling from a headline reaction can have much more bearish implications if it exceeds the organic objective that would have fulfilled sellers, anyway. Friday’s confirmed breakout still has outstanding the requirement for at least an eventual fresh low close. Interim support is at 2818.00, but there’s room for that down to 2808.00 before suggesting a more durable drop underway. Only recovering yesterday’s 2831.00 open through this morning’s open would suggest otherwise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2828.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2829.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2831.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2836.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s pre-open recovery had extended post-open to attack 2844.00. That was just the first hour. Despite triggering the 2040.75 bias-up signal and putting into play its 2847.75 bias-up target, a 22-point, 2-1/2 hour drop exited the noon hour back at the 2820.50 overnight lows. That was structural support, and also calculable support for being the afternoon’s bias-down target. The 2826.00 bias-down signal was recovered just in time to avoid triggering, extending to test its 2833.75 bias-up signal’s resistance. Sliding through the balance of the session attacked session lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming attacked and then tested 2832.00 by midnight, still far enough below yesterday afternoon’s high to not be considered “stopping pessimistically short.” Nevertheless, extending higher into and out of Europe’s opens has attacked 2839.00. Its 6-point reaction held at test of 2833.00, and another bounce is within 1 point of fresh highs.

If, then…
(The correct value for bias-up is 2830.50)… “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2847.75 bias-up target. Monday morning’s Isolation setup was all but invalidated. Friday’s breakout was essentially confirmed. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2833.50 high, after having trended down into Monday’s close, would form a “session-long rally” setup. The Isolation setup would get a reprieve, and the confirmed breakout would get a detour. Otherwise, at least a third lower close is now required. Meanwhile, overnight trending has been relentless, which is always more vulnerable to a post-open reversal. And if the overnight margin above afternoon’s 2833.50 high remains so obvious getting closer to the open, then NOT maintaining it post-open could be as bearish as the setup would have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] (There was an error in publishing this morning’s bias-up signal. Its correct value is 2830.50)… Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2832.75 would be likely to trigger the 2830.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2837.50 would be likely to exceed the 2836.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Last week’s relatively narrow 3-day range had been entered by gapping up. It resolved similarly, gapping down 16-17 points into Friday’s 2837.00 open. The morning’s 2832.00-2843.00 range exited the bias environment on its highs, then fell relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment to 2826.00 on no-bias trending. Its required retracement helped to recover the probe under the morning’s lows, as a steep bounce out of the proxy window retraced 61.8% up to 2838.00-2840.00 through the close. But not 100%, as the session’s interim high was not recovered.

Overnight action’s new info…
Renewed roiling of the Turkish Lira helped Sunday night’s open collapse down to 2828.25. It was soon extended to Friday’s lows, and down to 2820.25 through midnight. Its reaction back into Friday’s range touched 2831.75 before dipping again. Now that dip’s higher low has also recovered back into Friday’s range.

If, then…
Recovering the probe under Friday morning’s low had robbed sellers of their traction, but remained vulnerable to retest because momentum hadn’t reversed up above the morning’s 2841.00-2843.00. Its recovery would no longer suffice for reversing the trend up, which now requires closing above 2847.00. Fresh lows overnight don’t seem interested in a recovery, but repeatedly bouncing back above Friday’s lows does lay groundwork for a bullish Isolation setup. Preferably exiting the open above Friday morning’s low would target a retest of last week’s 2863.50 highs. Otherwise, not exploiting the setup could resolve as bearishly as it would have been bullish. More so, having already neutralized Friday morning’s attraction back down to its oversold RSIs, closing lower today anyway would be fresh bearish sponsorship.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2834.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2831.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2828.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s similarity to Wednesday — not so much in form as in function — continued the behavior as if lost in the Bermuda Triangle. The morning’s late no-bias signal left its 2866.25 target outstanding. The afternoon’s noN-bias fluctuated narrowly and couldn’t sustain its attack on session highs. Those are similar in function, reflecting weak-handed sponsorship on both sides. The final minutes repeated Wednesday’s late plunge back to session lows. Wednesday’s “unfinished business below” at 2852.00 was almost met.

Overnight action’s new info…
The ongoing inability to rally was likely due to the 2852.00 unfinished business below. And probing under it down to 2841.00-2843.00 to compensate for the delay had become likely. Thursday night’s slide immediately fulfilled 2852.00, and then kept grinding lower to attack 2848.00. Breaking sharply lower extended to 2839.00 into Europe’s opens. Ranging sideways back up to 2844.00. An overnight measurement to 2838.00 was finally fulfilled down to 2836.75, and now 2841.00-2843.00 is being tested as resistance.

If, then…
An Isolation setup is probably off the table. The overnight test of lower attractions should be threatening Thursday’s lows by now. Testing and holding 2841.00-2843.00 through the open could at least start forming a low. A bigger bounce from gapping down would likely dip from 2851.00-2852.00 to back-and-fill before a durable recovery. Post-open selling at some point is almost required, to let the intraday crowed express what the overnight crowd has been doing all night.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2843.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2846.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2848.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2851.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s 2856.00 bias-down signal was hard fought. It had held a test overnight before being probed through the open. Its grace period was barely invoked, and then its signal barely triggered by 1 tick. And that was just the signal’s struggle. Its 2851.00 bias-down target was only attacked to within only 2 points before price reversed up aggressively to attack the 2861.25 overnight high. The noon hour’s dip back down to 2856.00 was recovered to a fresh high at 2862.50 as the position-squaring window opened. But 2856.00 wasn’t finished, as price plunged 10 points down to 2885.50 into the Globex open. “Unfinished business below” at 2851.00 was still outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
The plunge left price action stunned, and consolidating under 2856.00. No new selling has emerged, except into a couple of bounces. The first to 2858.50 found sellers into Europe’s opens. The second into 2860.00 has now reacted back down to 2856.00.

If, then…
Wednesday afternoon’s inability to gain traction and its last-minute plunge suggest the intraday bounce was a hopeful detour. Originating from a test of the 2851.00 target would have allowed in stronger-handed sponsorship. Instead the detour will inhibit patient stronger hands from defending 2851.00. We would anticipate stronger hands are already buying if today were gapping up above yesterday’s high. But that’s not currently indicated. More so, overnight action has only bounced, further inhibiting strong-handed buyers from trying to absorb fresh lows. Regardless, gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 2861.00-2862.50 highs would resume the rally, and only triggering bias-up would at least extend the detour. Upside potential would still be 2873.00-2883.00. Otherwise, under 2851.00 would next target 2841.00-2843.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2856.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2859.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2861.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.