Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The rally seems to be in a stage of relentlessness. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 2853.50 high to 2857.00, and not trending up from within Monday’s range, reflects strong-handed sponsorship. It creates a position of strength. Tuesday’s open attracted more strength as it rallied another 8 points to attack 2864.00. That’s a lot of energy to expend, gapping up and extending, but the position of strength would keep strong-handed sellers away. The open’s rally didn’t resume, but the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways back down to 2858.00 — still above Monday’s highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s choppy range persisted overnight, albeit more narrowly between 2858.00-2861.50. With one exception, breaking lower to 2856.25 into Europe’s opens. But only a brief exception, as the break was recovered back into the range as quickly as it had developed. Now 2861.50 is being attacked.

If, then…
Extending the rally would next target 2873.00 with potential to 2883.00. Probing fresh highs this morning probably wouldn’t tolerate much hesitation in extending — yesterday and now the overnight has done enough backing-and-filling. Hesitating at fresh highs for too long could soon reverse back under overnight lows. Hesitating to probe higher at all could soon reverse back under overnight lows, too. Regardless of how it starts, a dip would be considered only a temporary correction, whether just testing Monday afternoon’s range down to 2851.00-2852.00, or deeper down to 2841.00-2843.00..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2858.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2856.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2861.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2864.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
SPECIAL NOTE: I’ve produced two new Bias Parameter videos, an introduction and an example. They’re linked perpetually on the daily Bias blog posts. A handy library of actual examples will be made available later this week, along with much more supporting reference items…

Monday morning’s probe of fresh highs was indicated already when Friday afternoon’s rally gained traction. But extending higher Monday also overcame a couple of challenges. First, the Globex-flip setup had threatened to reject its overnight probe above Friday’s 2840.50 highs. Then, the 2841.00 bias-up signal’s rejection was threatened during its grace period. But both reversal attempts only trapped more sellers, and their covering helped to fuel the rally through the noon hour. The balance of the session fluctuated around the two-week old 2850.00 prior high. The new recovery high close fulfilled the outstanding requirement. And the afternoon’s 2854.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging gradually improved through midnight to 2852.50. Rallying into and out of Europe’s opens extended through yesterday’s 2853.50 high to 2858.50. There was enough complexity to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme,” which requires eventual intraday retest.

If, then…
Extending higher overnight seems to be confirming the rally is in its relentless stage. This doesn’t prevent dips, in the context of higher highs and higher lows. But dips should be either shallower, briefer, or both — until getting much closer to the next higher target at 2873.00. Meanwhile, gapping up could break free from Monday afternoon’s Symmetrical Triangle, and avoid being a false break that would otherwise reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2856.00 would be likely to trigger the 2854.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2848.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday’s 2828.50-2831.00 highs. A China trade war headline was still being absorbed, so price only fluctuated there into and out of the open. The morning attacked the 2836.00 overnight high temporarily, dipping back down into the open’s range — but never reversing lower. Recovering through the noon hour extended higher through the balance of the session. Both the morning and afternoon’s 2837.50 and 2838.50 bias-up targets were met by a surge into the position-squaring window. Last-minute action extended up to 2840.50. No new unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped up to 2843.00, then drifted back down 3 points. Fresh highs up to 2845.00 before midnight then drifted back down 3 points, too. And then another 3 points back to the first 3-point reaction’s low. And then another 5 points down to Friday morning’s 2835.00 high. Volatility has only expanded during the past two hours, which surged 8 points to 2843.00 — back above Friday’s highs, for now.

If, then…
Friday’s close retraced the prior week’s 2838.25-2842.25 high close. This confirms the interim dip was only a temporary correction. Consequently, that also confirms the outstanding unfinished business above, requiring an eventual third higher close. Friday’s close at the prior week’s high close doesn’t qualify. So, the question is whether today will fulfill it. The earlier overnight lows were threatened AFTER probing above the prior session’s highs, which would reverse the trend down through this morning, at least. Maintaining its recovery would keep the door open to extending the rally without delay.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2843.00 would be likely to trigger the 2841.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by an overnight double-digit slide to fresh lows at 2791.00, already reacting up to 2797.50. While the pre-open recovery had been gradual, the post-open rally steepened almost immediately. Albeit a late trigger, no-bias rejected tests of both the 2801.50 and 2807.50 bias-down parameters and put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters at 2815.50 and 2822.00. The objectives were fulfilled going into and coming out of the noon hour. The afternoon bias environment’s high touched the lower-end of its 2828.50-2831.00 renewed bias-up target. Its reaction down was recovered through the close to touch the target’s upper-end.

Overnight action’s new info…
Whether anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report, or just patience before the news, there were no traces of Thursday’s rally during Globex — not until minutes ago. Hardly any traces of any volatility is always eerie ahead of high-profile news. The immediately began dipping back into Thursday afternoon’s range down to 2826.00 before midnight. A breathtaking 3-point bounce into Europe’s opens was retraced to test 2825.00. The dip was brief, and temporary, as another bounce is now probing fresh highs to 2835.50 on China FX news.

If, then…
A lot of buying pressure was expended Friday, relentlessly, without gaining traction for its effort. That makes its optimism “ineffectual optimism.” Literally all available buying pressure was expended, fulfilling but holding 2828.50-2831.00. It’s not a sell signal, but it essentially requires more optimism without delay to avoid being reversed. The outstanding requirement for at least an eventual third higher close tilts the odds in favor of extending Thursday’s rally. Rallying from the intraday test of 2801.50 raises the concern for some interim reaction down first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s delayed surge up to 2826.00 was doomed to failure, on two counts. It was no-bias trending after failng to trigger the morning’s 2823.25 bias-up signal. And it was unlikely to attract sponsorship ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC event. But its reaction down was less inhibited, exceeding its 2815.00 target by 61.8% down to 2808.00. That wasn’t necessarily sponsorship, but gravity revisiting the range’s other end. And it helped to soften the blow, as a brief dip to 2805.50 stopped 1 point short of its potential, and bounced back up to 2817.00. But the bounce was otherwise unimpressive, and the close dipped back down to 2808.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute dip was initially retraced back up to Wednesday afternoon’s bounce up to 2815.00. The afternoon’s low was being attacked by midnight. And probed ahead of Europe’s opens down to 2804.50. The trending has only extended — relentlessly — down to 2791.00.

If, then…
The overnight slide confirms yesterday’s conclusion: That the FOMC’s delayed knee-jerk reaction (is that a thing?) to within only 1 point of 2804.50, and the unimpressive bounce, had meant the morning’s slide didn’t discount the FOMC events enough. Or, that other events are still being discounted. Potential to retest 2801.50 remained alive. And there’s no bullish reason for that again, unless isolated. Overnight is one possibility, if the open has recovered back above yesterday’s 2805.50-2808.00 lows. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is the 2775.00-2781.00 area. And the next major observation is whether tomorrow’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, or weakness.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2801.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2804.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2807.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.